I know you can't plan for every contingency, but Rizzo;
- wanted Bryce down in the minors,
- knew LaRoche was coming back from a major injury,
- knew Werth was coming back from his worst year ever,
- knew Zimmerman was coming back from his own injury plagued year in a career full of nicks and bumps,
- knew Morse greatly outperformed expectations last year,
- knew Ian Desmond was on his last chance,
- knew Ramos and Espinosa have potential to regress,
- knew Ankiel and Bernadina were no better than space filler
21 comments:
Wow, looking at it closer to the season I realize how potentially bad this team could be. Unless the team ERA is somehow under 3.00, I wouldn't be surprised if they finish under .500 again with this current lineup; optimistically (in my pessimistic frame of mind) maybe 75 or 76 wins.
brendan - Yep, they could be a slow Morse recovery and a bit of bad luck from having a worse record this season. I think the pitching improvement is there but fans don't realize how solid the pitching was last year. The room for improvement there is getting smaller.
That's the challenge. It's a hell of a lot easier to pick up 6 average players to replace 6 terrible ones and get to mediocrity. It's much more difficult (and expensive) to go from average to great -- and with diminishing returns.
The first part is why if you have a truly terrible team for more than a year or two, you probably have no business being a GM.
Hey look! Jim Bowden is flying by my window!
great...now I'm depressed. There went me spring optimism. :-)
anon - don't be depressed... yet. Morse and LaRoche (or just Morse) can be healthy and productive at season's open. Or maybe LaRoche is out for a long time and Rizzo signs say... Derrek Lee for a year and he produces. Or Rizzo gets that trade done for a good CF or great corner OF (then move Werth to CF which is acceptable if they traded for a great corner OF). Or the pitching staff can really be the best in the National League. Or miracle case, these guys are out but everyone else fans like (Zimm, Werth, Espy, Ramos) play great the guys they don't like (Desmond, Ankiel, Bernie, DeRosa) play ok and Bryce comes up soon and is ROY worthy.
A lot can happen. The time for depression to creep in (if it must) is toward the end of April.
Wait, you're stupid enough to keep track of the Spring Training record and think it has meaning?
Do you know anything about baseball? Because about 70% of the guys playing in the games, that you for some reason care about, won't ever see a big league diamond in the regular season.
Whatever. Not listening. La La La.
My tickets are on the way and I'll be in Chicago for Opening Day.
I'm enjoying my life as a homer and still looking for 87 wins.
anon - This has nothing to do with Spring Training. I have consistently said Spring Training doesn't matter. I had to look up their record just now. 5-8? They could be 1-12 or 12-1 it doesn't matter. This is a team that was 12th in runs scored last year, that made no improvements to the offense in the offseason, that has 2 important pieces possibly not ready to start the season.
Lee - Hold onto 87 as long as you can, injuries come around real soon make you sad as a fan
Agreed. All it would have cost them is money to get another OF better than Ankiel, for instance. Further, Damon and Matsui are still out there for nothing more than probably 2 million at the most. Professional left-handed hitters with at least as much gas in the tank as DeRosa. So logically, we are led to assume that Jackson was signed for the draft pick, and the supporting appearance of competing, without the substance of doing so.
The depth on this club is worse than last year. We are expecting an inexperienced guy like Lombardozzi to be Hairston, and an old, injured guy like DeRosa to be the equivalent of Nix. The "minor" setbacks of Morse and LaRoche only showcase how little was done with the bench because a spot seemingly had to be left for Harper, and apparently STILL needs to be left for him.
Nothing you wrote provides any reasonable argument against this team being great. I don't care if they improved their offense, they have a top 5 rotation in all of baseball. An average offense will mean 85 wins easily.
I doubt your baseball knowledge more and more as you publish each new article.
I realize he can't fill in a whole lot, except (in a stretch/emergency) at first base, but Flores looks like a solid backup catcher and possible first off the bench pinch hitter. I realize "spring doesn't matter" but he was considered a solid catcher before the injuries the Grapefruit League hot streak's really an extension of the Dominican League hot streak. I realize none of those games matter and they're not full major league competition, but still that's reason enough to be a little more optimistic about the bench.
Yeah, it is kind of puzzling that they spent such little time filling out the 25 man roster while making big moves for Gio and EJax. I am thinking specifically of another OF with decent pop, and a MI with more than a straw in his hands. Guys like Cody Ross (1 yr, $3m) and Keppinger seem like a no brainer and would look pretty good now. I am a little more willing to cut him slack on the Laroche back up, since it wouldn't have made sense to sign a Derek Lee untilLaroche shows he can't go. I assume his injury means Chad Tracy makes the club.
Rizzo looks pretty good at the high end talent, but so far, at least, doesn't give much thought to filling out the rest of the roster. But there is still time to do something.
But is it just me, or do they look like they will do anything to avoid giving your boy Lannan a rotation spot? I assume it's Davey who doesn't want him.
I should have said, though, in Rizzo's defense, DeRosa looks healthy to me, which could be a big help.
blovy8- problem with Damon and Matsui is that they are liabilities in the field. If the Nats had a great CF maybe you take that chance but with their patchwork OF it's a hard sell. If you could convince them to be a bench player / spot starter though. that's different
As far as bench strength goes it does seem weaker, though Hairston's resurgence was a minor surprise and Nix really is an average LF with pop - DeRosa is a different type (and more versatile) player. Ankiel or Bernie are just taking their own spots. Flores is better than Pudge as a hitter. I'm not sure how much worse it really is. Probably slightly worse at the plate but slightly better in the field.
Anon - You have a point when you say an average offense with a Top 5 pitching staff (I'm using staff instead of rotation but I'll assume you agree that the bullpen is going to be up there as well) will win you 85 easy. Problem is the Nats didn't have an average offense last year. it was a good 40+ runs below average. A mediocre offense with a Top 5 staff - that team struggles to get to 85 wins. A mediocre offense needs a Top 2 type staff to be great. The Nats might be able to pull that off BUT if LaRoche and Morse's productivities are diminished because of injuries, can the Nats offense even remain mediocre?
That's the key. With a healthly Morse and LaRoche there probably is enough improvement overall to get to 85 wins. Playing poorly and/or missing time because of injury and there probably isn't because the depth isn't there right now to cover their losses. Maybe Rizzo makes a move, though.
Ollie - Last year's bench was kind of weird. As fill-in Hairston, Nix worked pretty well, just no one clicked as a PH. Maybe Flores can improve that - then again if that's the case then you have to carry that third catcher. (unless DeRosa can do that too)
@Harper--very true. And this year's looks ready to be just as weird--Lombardozzi in CF? OK...
Wally - just think of this not as the 2012 season but the season before 2013 and it makes more sense. Whatzit matter who's on the bench when we'll have to decide that all over again in 10 months? DeRosa could be good if healthy then again he's older than me. That's old in baseball.
Ollie - he'd be #29 since they came into existence. Assuming Bryce spends some time there too that would make 30. 30 CFs in 8 years.
A day late to this debate, but I've wondered all spring why they haven't made Damon an offer. Yes, he would be a liability in Left for the 20-30 games he'd play there, but: 1)is still more productive offensively than Ankiel/Bernardina; 2)can pinch hit just about everyday in the NL and DH for the nine games in AL parks; and 3)would be a good clubhouse presence for the younger guys. I mean, if we could carry Matt Stairs in this role for years, why not give Damon a shot?
BTW -- I caught your John Mellencamp shout-out in the comments. Nice.
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