Perfectly good player incoming!

The Nats traded Robert Garcia for Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers. It's a solid, if unspectacular move that makes the Nats better, without giving up too much or costing them a lot of money leaving them the ability to do other things to help the team. 

The good is pretty obvious.  Lowe hits around .260+ walks about 75 times and hits about 17 homers.  That's good enough for a 110+ OPS+ which is good enough for Top 10-15 offense in the MLB (1st base has taken quite a dip).  Pair this with a Top 5ish defense at the position and you have one of the better first baseman in the league.  In a sense in production he replaces what Jesse Winker would have done for the team if he stayed for the full season, though in a wildly different way, maybe even a little better. 

What's the downside? On the Lowe side not much.  You could definitely argue that what the Nats were really lacking was power and that's the one thing Lowe doesn't bring. This is something that Carlos Santana or Paul Goldschmidt, both signed for about the cost of Lowe, have. He also had his worst power year of his career last year. Is he on the downslide? It's one thing to hit 17 homers.  It's another to hit 12. 

You can also look at last year and see it's not just luck, pretty much ALL his fancy stats like hard-hit%, barrels, even things related to his patience like chase % went down.  If this is the start of a decline he doesn't have too far to fall before he's below average at the plate. And if it was an aberration. one could say the ceiling on Lowe is about as "low" as it could be. He's just good. That's it. 

But back to good, Lowe will turn 30 next year so while he could crash next year, you'd be better betting on that from Santana or Goldschmidt. And while Walker isn't OLD (sorry Anonymous commenter) he is old and a better bet to crash thought not to the level of the guys nearing 40. 

What about Robert Garcia?  I think people are underrating the impact of this move.  It's not that Robert Garcia was great. He was a the kind of pitcher that could be special. A lot of Ks, very few homers, and solid against all sides of the plate. But he walked just a few too many and gave up just a couple too many hits and had a bit too much bad luck to be more than good. Can he get to special? Probably! but at 29 next year you generally don't feel bad betting on things just continuing on as is.  

No the problem isn't Garcia, the problem is the Nats.  Robert Garcia was one of only TWO pitchers that the Nats have in the pen that seemed likely to be good. (Derek Law being the other) Right now the Nats pen is a huge gaping hole and when they are currently relying on a lot of young inexperienced arms and only brought in oft-injured arm to help this spells trouble.  

But lucky they have a bunch of money left to help solve this problem! 

Soroka was a good move IF they did other things to the rotation.  Lowe is just a good move. It's not game changing but it's the type of move that makes sense no matter what the Nats do the rest of the off-season.  Hopefully this isn't all they do of course.  

Walker, Houston Astro

 Christian Walker is not a Nat. He's an Astro.  3/60.  It's a bit of an overpay by year but the idea of getting out of the contract in 3 years for a player his age is appealing.  Better this than a 4/64 or 5/65, imo. 

With Walker out that leaves three 1B that would likely next year be an obvious upgrade.  Pete Alonso, Carlos Santana, and Paul Goldschmidt. The latter two are older so a 1-2 year deal might be possible. I prefer Santana - a slick fielder and more likely to take the shorter deal.  There are other middling 1B (Conor Joe! Justin Turner!) but rather than that I'd have them sign like Joc Pederson to DH or something

 Time keeps moving on.

The Nats sign... not an ace

Michael J Soroka... wait a second... Hey it is J! Well actually J G, Michael John Graydon Soroka. 

One year / 9 million 

Soroka was a top prospect as a minor leaguer and lived up to the hype in his first full season. His 2.68 ERA was a bit of a mirage but a 21 year old throwing to a 3.25-3.50 ERA? In 2019? That's great and it nearly won him the Rookie of the Year. 

But here's the problem.  In his rookie year he started 29 games and threw 174 innings. In the next FIVE years he's started 18 and has thrown 126. That would be a worrying number if we were talking his average year. We're not. We're talking combined. And they haven't been good. 

Now we'll flip back to the good. He DID get better last year. More innings, fewer hits, fewer homers, more Ks. It wasn't close to a full season but it's the right trend coming off a two year injury hiatus

Flip. But one thing did get worse - his walk rate. It jumped to 5.0 BB/9!

Flip.  The Nats starting pitching surprised in 2024 by not walking anyone and not giving up homers. The hits came bc they didn't strike anyone out but with few people on base and the ball staying in the park the opponent had to string together hits and the runs were harder to come by. This is EXACTLY the type of pitcher Mike Soroka was when he was good. 

Flip. While he got better giving up homers last year, he still gave up a good number of them and he gives up a lot more fly balls now. If he is a flyable pitcher now there's only so much one can do with that. See Josiah Gray. 

Soroka is a gamble. Do the Nats need a gamble? I don't know.  Certainly not as the best arm they sign or even the second best but after that? Sure! Gambles are fun!  If it's a secondary move hitting one usually helps a lot more than missing one hurts. But is this a secondary move?  We can't answer that yet. 

If Soroka is not one of the best 2 SP brought in this off-season then I think this is an ok deal.  Not great.  Seems pretty expensive compared to the likely results. But ok. He was a Nats type of pitcher before getting hurt.  He's vaguely returning to some sort of form. Maybe you get lucky 

If Soroka IS one of the best 2 SP Brough in this off-season than this simply isn't enough.  It's a gamble then not only on Soroka but that everyone else in the rotation doesn't need more help. I don't like that gamble. If you are ready, you shouldn't need good breaks to get you winning, but bad breaks to get you losing.

Monday Quickie - Zipping to 4th

The 2025 ZiPS projections are out from fangraphs and while not something you should bet the house on (no projections are like that imo) it gives an idea of where the Nats are TODAY. And where they are is not very good! 

This shouldn't be surprising. They lost their best starting pitching (even abbreviated Trevor Williams was great enough to take this crown), their best pure hitter (Jesse Winker) and their likely best reliever Dylan Floro (Derek Law has an argument if you are the type that wants to argue).  They also dropped their 3rd best reliever (Finnegan) and a useful bat (Lane Thomas).  And in their place they've brought in... 

<insert cricket sounds> 

All that suggests a pretty stable team performance after a 71 win season, with the losses here balanced out by the losses of some really bad crap (Corbin, Rosario, Senzel, sadly Joey Meneses) and the improvement from the ton of younger players on the team.  They were the youngest team at the plate last year and younger than average on the mound and should drop down more. 

73 wins? 75? 

But this is telling us what we already know. The Nats need to get FA (or trade) help to make the playoffs more than a far outside possibility in 2025. The Nats have a month before "it's getting late early" but this is the story for the team right now. They need help. Will they get help?  Expect it repeated ad naseum until they give us something new to talk about by actually signing someone or it gets so late the talk changes to "what are they doing?"

Offseason Position Discussion : Starting Pitcher

The Nats starting pitching in 2024 was like the half-full half-empty glass of water. 

On one hand the Nats got an incredibly productive 13 starts from Trevor Williams, had no major injuries after April, and watched as three separate young pitchers in Jake Irvin (well... youngish), Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all showed a level of surprising competence. And it was the last year of Patrick Corbin! 

On the other hand, the last year of Patrick Corbin is still a year of Patrick Corbin. The injury they did have knocked Josiah Gray out for the year, a player they were hoping would make a huge step forward this year. The other huge step forward was desired from MacKenzie Gore, who showed some flashes but was mostly just ok. 

I think most people though, would end up looking at it half-full.  No they didn't find an ace but the Nats are probably happy in general with where they ended up. A rotation with 4 guys in their 20s pitching like 3/4s. 

 That's also not a playoff winning rotation, not unless these guys get better, someone steps up, someone gets signed, or the offense takes off. But that's a lot of options!

Presumed Plan : 

The rotation will feature MacKenizie Gore and three of Irvin, Parker, Herz, Gray, Cavalli with a FA signing in the 1 or 2 slot.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats have money to spend. But the Nats also have kids almost everywhere to evaluate.  So the spending is going to be concentrated on a few spots.

The rotation is no exception to having kids to evaluate. However when it comes to pitching "never enough" is a good mantra, and looking at the talent level of these guys, outside of Gore or maybe Herz if you squint, the chances of any of these guys being considered ace or near-ace is slim. 

So you sign someone you like to be a 1/2 and then you see what happens with the rest of them. Depending on that and who you sign and how they do, 2026's FA goals become clearer.

My Take :  

Yes, do this. Honestly they could sign two starters and I'd be happy with it. 

I don't like relying on non-prospect kids who are probably ok but could flame out and leave the Nats in real trouble. And yes "ok" is the best way to describe them. As solid as these guys seemingly were the Nats rotation was actually pretty mediocre overall. Alot of that was Corbin but take him out and replace him with a guy like the other 4 and you don't get that much better.  Hitting was down last year (NL OPS dropped from .740 to .719) so what appeared to be good season were just average. 

Not that you are angry with a 24 year old average pitcher but you don't want a rotation that's 5 of these.

They need a reliable ace-type and Corbin Burnes fits the bill. Plus replacing a bad Corbin with a good one would make me happy.  He's been consistently really good. The declining K rate is a bit of a concern but it came along with solid control keeping him a very good pitcher, if not great. Get him. 

Failing that there isn't a great pitcher unless you want to bet on Verlander (I don't). With potential still out there are Jack Flaherty (has hit 30 starts once in his career with mixed results after looking like a star. Was very good last year), then Kyle Gibson/Charlie Morton (steady, reliable, too old for more than a couple year contract though), then guys like Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Sean Manaea who aren't really 1/2s. That's kind of why I want Burnes who seems to be as sure a thing as you can get.  There are some potential 1/2s next year (Cease, Gallen, Framber) but you can't rely on them getting to FA.

One last intriguing option is Patrick Sandoval. This is a guy who when he's right looks like a 1/2 but is coming off of Tommy John and will miss most of 2025.  He's a signing for the future and a gamble which makes him sort of fit with the Nats, who could then just evaluate everyone to start the year. And if you wanted to sneak a deal this may be a place to look. Of course this suggests punting 2025 for a playoff run.

 

Other notes

The Nats have been noted in interest for Gleyber Torres. As a Yankees fan I can say he's perfectly ok overall but has some real bad stretches at the plate and more importantly with concentration. Not a bad guy at all, but that makes him seems like a bad fit for the Nats who can obsess over that type of thing.

They picked up a relief Rule V arm in Evan Reifert. Looked real good in 40 innings of AA ball. Great stuff, but wild. They also lost Matt Cronin in the minor league portion. He looked like a guy set for the majors before getting hurt in 2023. Wouldn't surprise me if he became productive.

The Nats won the draft lottery. Early indications overall is that it's better than the weak 2024 class but mostly bc of high schoolers as opposed to college players who might be ready sooner and fit better in the Nats window. Still when you have the #1 pick all you care about is how the best guy is doing.

Soto to Mets

A bit slow on this - 15/765, signing bonuses, opt outs 

My general thinking is 

1) This stinks for me. I wanted him on the Yankees. I do view their offer as a reasonable effort and imagine Cohen was true to his word on not being outbid. I wouldn't be surprised if the bidding began in the low 600s and escalated to the point it ended at.  The Red Sox bowing out at 700 mill and the Yankees at their number. 

Ok so now use that money for a bunch of other things. The bottom of the lineup can't be Oswaldo, DJ, and Trent Grisham

2) This stinks for Nats fans.  Soto signing anywhere else would be bad but signing for another NL East team where you see them more times a year than any other player? And they are competing directly against you for titles? Ugh. 

What's worse on some level is not that the Nats didn't get Soto, as we talked about before. The Nats aren't a 15/765 team and that's fine! Like 2-4 teams are and guess what? More than 2-4 teams make the playoffs and they can also win the Series. But what's worse is that the Nats never looked in it.  They should be a 15/600 team and just hearing their name early on, even if it wasn't going to happen would have shown a level of seriousness in this window we haven't seen yet. 

3) Not sure what this means for Soto. Cohen has completely committed to spending money but also that hasn't quite resulted in a new dynasty forming. The Mets over the past 4 years have been underwhelming and face quite of level of competition with the young controlled Braves, the star driven Phillies, and yes, the potential up and coming Nats. 

He'll be great.  He'll get paid. If he wants to win... I think there were better places (and I'm not necessarily saying the Yankees). But you know what? Winning isn't guaranteed. Getting paid is.  So get paid. 

OK Nats.  Let's move forward now. Onward and upward. The bar has been raised for the NL East. Rizzo has some work to do/

Too early to worry

The Nats don't look to be in on Soto. 

That may disappoint but it shouldn't be a surprise given that he's going to push 700 million total and 60 per year.  Soto is for teams that are fine being Top 3 payroll letting money cover up their mistakes. That's not the Nats and it never has been the Nats. 

But that doesn't mean they won't spend. 

Now could it inflate the salaries of everyone to the point where the Nats are too gun shy over any single one? I suppose but we're talking conjecture here. Right now what we know is this : 

• The Nats have a fair amount of money to spend.  Depending on what they want to do that could be 50 to 100+ million*. That's a lot! 
• The Nats have shown in the past they will spend and be a Top 10-Top 5 ish payroll in the league if not out and out compete with the big boys. 
• The Nats have made hints that they will be more aggressive in FA this off-season
• The Winter Meetings haven't taken place yet. We're still very early in the process. 

 I still have high-ish expectations, with the issues being more about the talent on the FA market than the Nats willingness. You can get worried in a normal FA period when we get later in January, but not early in December. 

 *ok if they want to do nothing it could be 0 million but no one thinks that's the case

Offseason Position Discussion : Other OF

The Nats OF was not an issue last year.  It wasn't necessarily "good" but it was a relative strength while being the centerpiece for the plans for the future. It featured a mix of players outside of Wood and later Crews who we talked about last time. Winker (good!), Eddie Rosario (very bad!), and Alex Call (very good but much fewer PA) all started a decent number of games in the OF but the guys with the most time were Lane Thomas and Jacob Young.  Thomas hit well enough to keep himself a trade target and got sent away at the trade deadline.  Young fielded like a beast and hit well enough to keep the job. 

The question for 2025 is who joins Crews and Wood in the Nats OF of the future... of today

Presumed Plan : 

Jacob Young will start in CF

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

We talked about it in the comments a while back but Jacob Young played like possibly the best CF in baseball last year.  Wood needs defensive help and you don't want to rely on Crews, still learning the position at the major league level, to have to give it to him. 

While Alex Call has some history at being a very good fielder and shone with the bat for a month last year, he also has a unreliable history at the plate and more importantly is five years older than Jacob Young. If you are going to bet on someone for the future, which it seems like the Nats would do, it would be Young. 

They could also bring in a bat here but given the needs at 1B/DH and maybe 3B if they want to slow walk House or shake up the IF, letting the OF play out like this makes sense for a year. If Young doesn't come through then there's a target for improvement before 2026 which presumably will be the year they really try to make a playoff push.

My Take :  

This seems simple. Young, at 25 next year, deserves a shot to see if he can hit around average. If he fields like he did last year, that basically sets the Nats OF for the next half-decade (unless they want to move Wood).   

Also if Young doesn't hit he will at least give coverage to Wood, who has shown he may need it, while they find a solution in his place.  Having your worst hitter be a slick fielding CF is not a bad thing.

As for the alternatives. Long time readers know I'm not a fan of Alex Call. While I can't deny he can field and was impressed with his stint last year, it just doesn't makesense to gamble on a guy who hit poorly when given a real chance in 2023 and is going to be an old 30 next season. Personally I'd try to use his 2024 push to get something back and wish him well elsewhere. 

I'd use Stone Garrett who's been a fairly consistent solid OF in his limited chances, to be the 4th OF and possible replacement for Young if he struggles or Crews if he struggles hard.

The minors don't really have anyone else knocking at the door.  Hassell is now in "trying to get back to form" mode having passed the "recovering from injury" time frame. Daylen Lile did fine in AA but nothing that suggests he'll be forcing anything in 2025. I guess since the rest of the media does it here is an obligatory Elijah Green reference bc he was drafted high and had that one good month.

It doesn't seem hard. Let it play out with the guys you ended the season with. Fix things elsewhere. Hope it works out.