An embarrasment of pitches

With Edwin Jackson's gem two nights ago (that would have likely beat the Jays regardless of Morrow's status) the Nats #1-#4 starters have ERA+s of 130 or higher. That's fancy stat shorthand for - they got 4 really good to great starters.  That got me thinking. Has there ever been a staff this good? And this young? (Assuming they can keep this up the whole year).  Digging around I came up with a couple of fun facts. 

Fun Fact #1 : If my research is correct there's only been two other teams to have a rotation like this (4 guys, ERA+>=130, all qualify for ERA title) in the last 100 years: the 1997 Atlanta Braves and the 1942 Detroit Tigers. A war year team and our generations signature squad for great starting pitching.

Fun Fact #2 : Leaving Edwin out of it (because he's slightly older and not beholden to the team after this season) the Nats have 3 pitchers age 26 or younger that have ERA+s of 130 or higher.  The only team since 1995 to meet that criteria?  The 2003 Chicago Cubs.

But we're having fun with endpoints here.  I could probably tighten a restriction here and make the Nats squad look like the best ever, or loosen a restriction there and lump this rotation with a bunch of good, but not special squads.  What we really want to see is who recently has had a pitching staff that's this young and this good?

So abitrarily I decided to look at teams with 3 pitchers, age 27 or younger, with ERA+s over 120 and at least 150 IP (to not leave out a good rookie - or Strasburg esque part time pitcher).  And I went from 1980 because that's about when I can talk with first hand knowledge.  Here's the teams a I found and how they did.

1985 Mets

• Dwight Gooden (20), Sid Fernandez (22), Ron Darling (24)
• Together until 1991, Fernandez and Gooden until 1993
• 2 playoffs appearances, 1 WS appearance, 1 Championship

This was a different time really.  These guys never had the advantage of the WC and during their 7 year run together they'd have 4 2nd place finishes to go along with the 2 division titles. Suffice to say in modern times they might have looked even better.  As far as the talent goes this might actually be the least impressive group here.  While 1985 looked magical, neither Darling or Fernandez were elite pitchers during their time together.  Darling became average after a great '86, while Fernandez would have his best years starting with 1991. We all know the story of Doctor K (Not to be confused with John "The K Doctor" Patterson).

1993 Braves

• Greg Maddux (27), Tom Glavine (27), Steve Avery (23)
• Together until 1996, Maddux and Glavine until 2002
• Until 2002 - 9 playoffs appearances, 3 WS appearance, 1 Championship

The Braves of this era go right up there with any starting staffs you can name. The only thing that keeps the franchise from being lauded is a lack of championships, but any fan that doesn't sign up for this level of success is a fool. Avery would get injured at the end of 1993 and would never really be the same but that hardly mattered.  Maddux and Glavine would go on to Hall of Fame careers and would be joined by another possible Hall of Famer when John Smoltz when he finally put it together in 1995 (at age 28).  The Braves would go on to have a 4 year run of the best starting pitching you'd ever see, where arguably each of their top 3 pitchers put up a #1 type season every year.  Eventually, an injury would force Smoltz to the pen to end the run.

1993 White Sox

• Alex Fernandez (23), Wilson Alverez (23), Jack McDowell (27)
• Together until 1994, Fernandez and Alvarez until 1996
• 1 playoffs appearance

The 1993 White Sox? Really?  Yep, really. This team doesn't stand out in our collective memory because of circumstance.  After losing to the Blue Jays in 1993 playoffs, they'd finish first in the strike year. Then McDowell, due up for a big contract, was dealt away.  The Indians would rise and make the Sox perennial also rans, thanks also in part to some very terrible staffs behind Wilson and Alex. Fernandez would walk away after 1996 and Alvarez would be dealt away in the "White Flag" trade of 1997 where a competitive Sox team would "No Mas" a run at the Wild Card.  All three of these were pretty talented pitchers but all three would see injuries around 30 derail their careers. Only Alvarez would pitch past age 31.

2001 A's

• Tim Hudson (25), Mark Mulder (23), Barry Zito (23)
• Together until 2004
• 4 playoffs appearances

Not quite Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz, but possibly the best we've seen since then. The A's are probably best known for Billy "Moneyball" Beane's GMing during this time, but any knowledgable baseball fan will tell you it was the development of these three into stars that made the A's. They never could get to the World Series but were one of the dominant teams as long as these three were pitching.  Zito was the least successful of the three - slowly fading over time into an average pitcher. Mulder would be pretty good as long as he was with the A's and Hudson was (and is) very special. After 2004 the small market A's would let Hudson walk and would deal Mulder, up for his own FA deal soon, to the Cardinals. Mulder would end up getting injured in 2006 and be out of baseball at age 30.

2003 Cubs

• Mark Prior (22), Kerry Wood (26), Carlos Zambrano (22)
• Together until 2006
• 1 playoffs appearance 

Oh the 2003 Cubs. Their only playoff appearance would be this very season as they'd watch an emotional implosion cost them a game they should have won that would have sent them to the World Series.  They'd actually win more games in 2004 but finish behind a great Cardinals team and the Astros. After that injuries to the pitching and a terribly constructed offense would make them an afterthought.  The injuries mean that it's not fair to say that the Cubs had these three together at any time after 2003.  Prior would have only one more decently full season in 2005. He'd lose most of 04 and 06 and then never pitch again.  Wood would be injured in 2004 but still do ok, then he'd pitch only 110 innings over the next 3 years before converting to a closer. Zambrano would continue to pitch well and still is today, though now for the Marlins. 

What do these glimpses tell us about the Nats young guns?  I'd say this. The Nats will be real lucky if they don't lose one to injury. Fully half these guys after the Mets saw their careers ended way too early by injury. That's gotta be the biggest concern to any Nats fan. Bad luck or bad medical staff work (uh oh) blowing this all up before it can even really get started.  Still, if that does happen then it's not automatically a death knell for a team. How well the rest of the squad is constructed plays a huge role in if they can continue to be a factor.  Put together a decent offense like the White Sox did and you might stay relevant. Let everything go to pot like the Cubs and you are going to find yourself a mess.  If the Nats do get real lucky though, and they could, the A's and Mets did, and have all three for all of 2012-2016 it's a recipe for sustained success, even if one or two of Strasburg, Gio, and ZNN likely show themselves to be more good pitchers than great ones.

But for sustained excellence, like the 90's Braves, which has to be seen as the ultimate goal, you need everything.  You need the health. You need the pitching to be great not just good. You need the good bullpen. You need the good offense. That last one is the key for this franchise because for the most part the Nats have the pen and back of the rotation covered (and developing into great pitchers year after year involves some luck).  Going forward if the Nats want to be a dynasty there is more work to be done. Bryce Harper is step one.