Nationals Baseball: Monday Quickie - stupid answers to snappy questions

Monday, December 09, 2013

Monday Quickie - stupid answers to snappy questions

From DAM magaizine?

On Fister and pitching staff

Trade Detwiler rather than pen him!

I think Detwiler's injury issues make him a sell low right now. So might not get a good relief pitcher let alone one AND a prospect.

Best rotation guess

Do think it will be Stras Gio ZNN Fister Detwiler to start. Jordan first up. Pen  Soriano, Clippard, Storen, Stammen, Ohlendorf, Cedeno, new lefty.

Will they trade anyone in the pen?

Doubt it unless for something real good. Pen is good, trade of Clip or Storen would weaken it significantly.

What about Stammen for a LHRP? 

You know... that isn't crazy. If the LHRP wasn't a LOOGY it would keep pen on even ground. If I were a team out of contention with a LHRP due up for FA soon, Stammen (not a FA until after 2016), and maybe a throw in prospect, isn't a bad return but they might hold out for more seeing what LHRP are getting.

Braves rotation is set? 

Sorry - right looking for another arm. Thing is they have 5 starters right now, just all young so want a more reliable arm.Could get by without it, though

Sean Burnett? 

You could get him for a song, but no. Injured pitchers are not the low variance type this team needs (which is why I'm cool on O'Flaherty)

Fister worse tha Porcello and Scherzer? 

Mainly age related. Porcello trending right and much younger. Scherzer and Fister same age and Scherzer (with some luck yes) pitched better. FIP and xFIP both have Fister "last" (but still decent). Again just a guess and one I don't like all that much but still way I lean if forced.

Storen closer by July?

No. Soriano is a baby and can't handle pitching in non closer role. Hate to coddle him but have to get what you can out of assets on hand.

Targetting Oliver Perez?

I don't think they are. I mean not more than anyone else.

LaRoche & Zimmerman >>> Cabrera & Fielder = Fister the great!

Ehhhh. I believe LaRoche's drop off is real and Zimmerman is not elite anymore so I'm a bit hesitant on the 0.25ERA reduction just from fielding. But it will be something noticeable.

On Offense side

Can Zach Walters be Lombo? 

Sure. But if the point is to minimize variance bringing in a minor leaguer with little MLB experience (who K's like crazy) isn't best bet. Rather use Espy if he ever decides to get surgery.

DeJesus?

It's not that he's THAT much better than McLouth and I'm sick over losing him. But he can play CF and McLouth can't and that gives the Nats more flexibility which is kind of what a bench is for since you can't 1:1 replace your regulars. I'd expect roughly the same sort of offensive production from them, with McLouth the better bet to tank (though not likely). Take all that and since DeJesus signed for the same I'd rather have DeJesus.

But I'm not unhappy with McLouth.  He fills in the good enough base runner spot that the Nats lost when they had to cut Bernadina. (though I liked Eury Perez in that spot personally) It's a good, necessary move. McLouth & Hairston are worlds better than Moore and Bernadina. Though we didn't for sure know that going into 2013. Which is an important lesson. Given Hairston's terrible 2013 and McLouth's bad years, the leash on these guys should not be season-long. All-Star break fixes if these guys are looking dead.

Bring up a young guy for CF or move Bryce over if Span goes down? 

Move Bryce over.

But if they don't do that then who for CF?

Goodwin if he's hitting well in AA because he's most likely the future. If he's not, or if it's early in the year, if Souza is raking in AAA you have to give him a shot.  If not, I'd do Perez because I like the minor league consistency and better speed potential. I see him as a 4th OF for a while so let's get him some time now for later.

Who's hurt the most - Corey Brown? Tyler Moore? 

Brown the worst. Given age and performance he needed to be up now. Kobernus too. Not sure why he'd be up if not now. Souza, Perez, Goodwin all should get those mid-season call-up ahead of him. Moore can be slated for 1B and I think if he has that job by ST he'll keep it at least till Sept. Skole's gotta prove it in AA and AAA.

Backup catcher? 

At this point I'd try real hard to get Suzuki back. While personally I like Ramon Hernandez for a true back-up I don't like him for more than a game a week and with Ramos' history you need a guy that could play everyday (at least for a while until you find a true replacement) Everyone was ok with Suzuki, right? If they know he's just a back up?

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

The backup catcher du jour seems to be John Buck. Ugh. All in all, I'd probably prefer Suzuki, although he'd have to take a pay cut, as would Buck. Suzuki is younger and better defensively. Considering Ramos's injury history and the lack of internal options, it might have been better to overspend at this position than on a 4th OF. But all the half-decent (quarter-decent?) catching options are already gone from the market.

Rest of the bench: I have little confidence in T-Mo and even less in Hairston, who couldn't hit RHP AT ALL last year. Souza might be better than either right now, if given the chance.

As for the Lombo role, Espy is an absolutely stellar defender, but his hitting last year was epically bad. (Look at his AAA numbers.) Could the big club afford to carry him as a defensive replacement who gets very few ABs? Walters swings and misses about as badly as Espy does, and probably can't play SS, which is why A) I don't trust him at the MLB level, and B) it would probably be good to flip him now coming off the 29 HRs. The other guy in this equation is Kobernus, whose offensive skills they just duplicated with McLouth.

As for the bullpen, yes, O'Flaherty has far and away the most potential of the lefties on the market, but the word is that he wouldn't be ready until May at the earliest, which means not nearly 100 percent even at that time. It would be an expensive gamble to sign and stash him, and that would require another quality lefty for the interim. So Harper, I'm with you that he's probably not worth it. I'm just not sure who is!

Donald said...

I still am hoping that Christian Garcia makes the pen, but that's probably wishful thinking. If he's healthy, though, he's got a great arm and make-up. That would push someone else out, though.

Anonymous said...

I've forgotten whether it is Harper or some of the commentors who have been lobbying for Jeff Baker, but perhaps the Nats have been reading the blog:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/wp/2013/12/09/nationals-show-interest-in-jeff-baker/

Baker would be an upgrade over Hairston, but it wouldn't make much sense to keep both of them.

JWLumley said...

I love O'Flaherty, because LOOGY's are a terrible investment in part, but also because O'Flaherty is awesome when he's right and the Nats have Solis and....wait for it...Clippard if he's not. Go sign Mike Gonzalez as insurance if it will help everyone sleep better at night.

As for the backup catcher, Suzuki's great if they can afford it and he's interested. If they can't afford it, they should make room given Ramos' injury history. They don't need a backup, they need a starter who's willing to take a backup role.

Great to hear about Baker, but I don't think it will be the end of Hairston, rather the end of T-Mo, which I believe would be a good thing.

BlueLoneWolf said...

I like the fact that Suzuki handled all of our pitchers well and he knows Gio really well- I'll still sing about the time Gio was blowing up and Suzuki got him calmed down and head straightened by going back to the old Oakland signals. Since Gio has a tendency to go wild, why not just bring in a guy that can shut the crazy off? 2 years at 4/5 million apiece? Maybe 2 for 3 apiece if you can get him that cheap?

Anonymous said...

Rizzo told reporters this afternoon that he's fine with Solano and Leon as the backup options . . . which probably means that a deal for a catcher is imminent. It certainly can't mean that he's looked at Solano and Leon's stats.

John C. said...

I guess we'll have to disagree on Fister vs. Porcello. Porcello's "trending right" hasn't yet gotten him to a league-average ERA+. He's going to need about four more seasons to get to where Fister is. Fister is 29, about to turn 30 in February. He's not likely to trend down sharply at that age. Even if you assume that Porcello holds his trend and insert some age related slip by Fister, by the time their "trend lines" cross, Fister will have moved into free agency.

As for FIP and xFIP, Fister has been consistently better than Porcello at FIP, including 2013 (Fister 3.26, Porcello 3.53). Porcello did, for the first time, have a slightly better xFIP than Fister in 2013, but Fister also had a jump in BaBIP that should come down (23 points above his career norm).

I'm with you on most of the other stuff, though. Which may cause you to immediately re-examine your assumptions lol

Anonymous said...

On John C. noting that it may be four years before Porcello becomes what Fister is now, I'll add that it would be 7-8 before Ray is, if he turns out to be anything at all. It remains a stunning deal.

Ridiculous rumor of the day is that the Cubs want Clippard or Storen. What none of the stories note is that all the Cubs have to offer in return are a fungo bat and a used jock. Honestly, I looked at the Cub roster and saw no one worth either of those guys, particularly Clippard. If the Cubbies really want a closer, I'd give them Soriano for Samardzija. But in looking closer at Samardzija's stats, it just confirmed how great the Fister deal was.

As for O'Flaherty, here's the issue. He only wants a one-year deal so he can go back on the market again next year when he's fully healed. Sorry, dude, but if we're waiting out your rehab, we want one or two full years as well. We'll put plenty of incentives in the contract. But I'm not buying short of a two-year deal, preferably with a mutual option for a third. The absolute worst-case scenario would be for him to have us pay for the rehab year and then go back to the Braves in 2015.

Anonymous said...

It's amazing how much news and how much money there is out there for bad baseball players. It must be tough being the GM of a good team and have clubs like the Cubs coming to you when they have no one who would interest you in the slightest.

One legit name is being floated from the south side of Chi-town, though: Chris Sale. We want him. I'm offering Cole, Solis, and Karns. Plug Sale in as our "5th starter" for the next six years and see how that rocks everyone else's world.

Anonymous said...

Love the thought of going after Sale, but let's try more of a sucker deal: LaRoche, Brown, Hairston, and Karns for Sale. Perhaps dangle Walters as well. That would give the Sox a quantity return made up mostly of guys who don't really figure in the Nats' future.

All of that said, would the Nats be better served throwing so many chips at a pitcher, or for a hitter? Someone like Stanton would require much more in the way of prospects.

blovy8 said...

These have to be answered in Jaffee Al format:

Trade Det rather than pen him?

*No, Detwiler's too old for a new trade. He needs to be fattened up before he can even be put in the pen with the others getting ready for the slaughter.

Best rotation guess?

*Two seams mostly.

Will they trade anyone in the pen?

*Yeah, right. A lot of virtual ink will be spilled, but they'll hock up a loogy from a source that Rizzo will protect like Deep Throat.

Stammen for a LHRP?

*Of course, provided that Stammen's right arm is too hurt to use. That guy is tough!

Braves rotation is set?

How can they be satisfied with what they have without a lecturing catcher who keeps hitters from reaching the plate by standing on the baseline? Here's hoping their ticket campaign features that dame who somewhat melodically hollers "I want to see you be Brave" in those Microsoft commercials. She can pound the piano with tomahawk chops.

Sean Burnett?

*Are Carol and T-Bone still unavailable? Who is this "Sean" that would be signed to a newfangled multi-year reliever deal that you speak of?

Fister worse than Porcello and Scherzer?

*I'd never do that to her, I don't care if those guys were just riding in the car with Corey Brown, that's just wrong.

I apparently never told enough Wang jokes...

Storen closer by July?

*He'll be closer to qualifying for the union pension, for sure.

Targetting Oliver Perez?

*Somebody should. I suggest a high-powered weapon, he's a big target and may be difficult to take down and will certainly be wild if you merely wound him.


LaRoche & Zimmerman >>> Cabrera & Fielder = Fister the great!

*Facing only eight hitters in a lineup will have NOTHING to do with being any better. I suspect Fister the Great would be forgettable if he didn't have mitt on when he performing his act. Whereas Fielder is really tricky with a name like that since he can barely bend over to stop a grounder, and how just many Cabreras are there? I lose track. They must be even more than there are Molinas, and some are certainly faster.


Anonymous said...

Offense side

Can Zach Walters be Lombo?

*No, only Jamey Carroll can do that.
But better and with less strain on the jersey manufacturers. It's hard enough getting all the varieties of Natinals right.

DeJesus?

*He has a much nicer selection of MLB gear than McLaugh. Other than that, I imagine there's plenty of Jesus left in the clubhouse, even without Flores around.

Bring up a young guy for CF or move Bryce over if Span goes down?

I hear the fences are a bit farther away in center. Everyone wins. Should we really be giving a guy like Corey Brown another chance? That would be too much like Jesus.

But if they don't do that then who for CF?

What's Nook Logan doing lately? I bet we could get one of Tony Plush's personalities out there for a few games at least until he inevitably wanders into Caps training camp. Which Michael Taylor do we have again?

Who's hurt the most - Corey Brown? Tyler Moore?

*Moore is less, but Brown is not the proper color for the black tie event the show requires. Moore will be at-battier. If he stops hitting like the Mary Tyler version of last September, it may be a sign of MTM sort of year where the whole ensemble is better than the stars, and better than they'd be anywhere else.

Backup catcher?

The Buck stops someplace else. Suzuki is a nice guy. Durocher was right sometimes. There must be a worthy AAA guy in his late 20's that's had a Molina obstructing him forever that the Nats can get.

blovy8 said...

Don't know how I went anonymous, but given the content, I shouldn't be admitting I did it.

Anonymous said...

Carol Burnett is, in fact, a lefty, and I think she pitched more in 2013 than Sean did. She certainly experienced less arm pain. I've wondered whether the Nats knew something about Sean that they didn't tell, as he faded in Aug. and Sept. of 2012. They never made much push to resign him.

As for the previous post about a trade for Sale, unfortunately, the Sox have resigned Kornerko to go with Dunn, so their immobile 1B/DH dance card is already full. No dice dumping LaRoche on them. The rest of their team is pretty pathetic, however, so they could use some wholesale reinforcements along the lines of Brown, Walters, Hairston, et al. Hey, Rizzo just sold Lombo as the next Infante, so anything's possible!

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