Nationals Baseball: A win but at what cost. AT WHAT COST?!?

Tuesday, April 01, 2014

A win but at what cost. AT WHAT COST?!?

Let's start with the most important thing - the Ramos injury. This is why I called him "hope to get 100 games out of him" Ramos. A lot (A LOT) about remaining injury free is luck. Some guys don't have it. Our favorite injury prone player, Nick Johnson, broke a leg colliding with another player going after a pop-up. He had a ball bounce up and hit him in the face. He had bad luck. So does Ramos. It doesn't mean you don't stick with them, because when they are healthy it's worthwhile (Nick Johnson was a Top 15 offensive player in 2006) but you have to plan for the injury that may not happen. That can be expensive but that's the deal you make.

What to do now?  Nothing really. Lobaton is a fine replacement and aren't we all glad Rizzo did that (though we all seemed to beg and plead for him to do that for a while before it got done). Solano is a pretty crappy back-up, but that's pretty much true of any back-up the Nats could bring in. Solano might be worse but if Ramos is really only going to be out five weeks, that's maybe 5 games (maybe not even that - there are a lot of off days early) for Solano. The team can handle that. If you are afraid the "not embarrassing" replacement catchers will be cheaper to get now than later, you're right, but why would the Nats need to get one of these? In case Lobaton goes down, too? Well if Lobaton goes down too I want to see Rizzo go out and get a real catcher, not Chris Snyder or Koyie Hill.

The game itself grew from a possible disappointing loss as Strasburg pitched just bad enough to lose and the Nats bats looked just quiet enough to make that happen, to one of those back and forth battles that would be deflating to lose, if just for a day. Thank the Mets for once again ignoring their bullpen. As if putting together a group where the 2nd best arm had a 3.71 ERA is going to work. That's in NL relief innings, someone other than your closer should be under 3.00, maybe two guys. Good to get the win. Now move on and get the next one Wednesday.

Other notes
  • Strasburg looked bad, then good. Needed time to warm up? Maybe. I'd be watching him with men on though. He's been working on holding runners on and that may have distracted him just enough to leave that meatball out there for Brown. 
  • Yes, Barrett looked good but I won't get excited about that just as I won't say Clippard's done. One game. 
  • The lineup was kind of strange wasn't it? I don't really care overall but Span 1st and Bryce 5th just doesn't work for me. It's not the world I want to live in. 
  • I do imagine with Lobaton in the C batting clean-up is over but I'd expect the change to be Desmond to 4th, Rendon to 6th, Lobaton 8th.
  • Funny how all the sportscasters started the day saying CitiField would play even bigger because of the wind. End results : five homers.
  • Storen is not bad. He is good.

36 comments:

Eric said...

I heard Knorr on 106.7 this morning and he addressed Ramos' injury. Apparently signs of trouble first arose last week during an at bat in Jupiter, FL. After that at bat, Ramos said his wrist felt off. Knorr said, a couple of times, "it doesn't look good." Said he thinks the x-ray yesterday missed something that the hand specialist in bmore will catch today.

I almost hope it's a broken bone...It seems like injuries to connective tissue always take longer than expected to get right.

Eric said...

On the other hand, maybe at some point today the Nats will put out a press release on Ramos:

"Results on Ramos' hand injury are in: APRIL FOOL'S! He's just fine."

cass said...

You didn't even mention Harper's head injury.

And if you want to be afraid, very afraid, you could look at this graph: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=10131&position=P&pitch=FA

I would much rather Ramos stay out for two months than go through a Danny Espinosa misdiagnosis parade. I have zero faith in the Nats medical staff.

But potential injuries to Ramos, Harper, and Strasburg is not a great way to start the year off, no.

On the other hand, that slider to K David Wright sure was pretty.

Kalel said...

@Cass - read the article on natsinsider. It talks about how Strasburg was using his other pitches more often than usual including his brand new slider!

Eric said...

"But potential injuries to Ramos, Harper, and Strasburg is not a great way to start the year off, no. "

I think Stras is fine...I could be wrong, but I suspect resorting to breaking balls is contraindicated for a pitcher with an injury.

I am fairly confident Harper is OK, albeit glad for the day off. A little worrisome that he has a headache, but someone with a concussion would probably have a hard time cheating on their concussion test. I do think the Nats would have pulled him if he failed.

Definitely worried about Ramos.

Eric said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bjd1207 said...

@cass - Yea not sure why injury to Stras in included in here. Do you know something we dont?

Harper returned to the game, passed both concussion tests (at time of injury and post-game). I think he gets one more but don't think he'll miss time.

Ramos was the only real injury, and yes its concerning. Dude's mad of glass.

@Line Up Discussion - I don't like the 3 righties in a row Zim, Werth, Desmond. Especially if Werth slumps or Harper takes off I want Harp in the middle there. Span, Zim, Harp, Werth, Des, LaRoche, Rendon

Also - just one game (of course) but Span could make a lot of people on this post eat their words

Strasburger said...

Line up wasn't too bad. I really liked the way Storen looked, and I knew he would bounce back.

I also want them to play Soriano so that he loses the closing role ASAP. Clippard and Storen could both be much more effective closers. i think Storen will eventually win the job back.

Man, Rendon looked sharp, but the highlight of the day for me was Danny taking that walk. Try to convince me that would've ever happened in that situation with him in the past.

You cant.

cass said...

The chart I linked to applies just to four-seam fastballs. He threw them at, by far, the lowest velocity of his career. His other pitches seemed to be close to his norms from last year, so I wouldn't think it'd be due to a miscalibrated pitch f/x system.

I don't think Strasburg thinks he's injured, but a sudden drop in velocity can be a warning sign that one is coming. Some of it could be misclassifying two-seamers, but I don't think that explains it.

We'll see how the next start goes, but I'm worried.

Lee said...

@ Kalel, RE: Cass

The link was for average velocity on his 4 seam fastball, not all pitches.

I'll add that it was pretty cold though. Perhaps he had some trouble warming up.

Eric said...

@cass, the two seamers are to the right and look low but not AS low. I also noticed that there's no tab for his slider, which makes me wonder about the accuracy of the whole chart.

That said, he clearly didn't have his usual heat...I'm blaming the cold weather, and possibly even resulting caution to *prevent* injury...

But, I admit I did get a little nervous when I kept seeing 92 mph FBs on GameDay. I just don't think McCatty would let him play through it if he thought there was a real problem.

cass said...

The sliders were misclassified as change-ups. The system needs to be manually calibrated. I imagine it'll be fixed within the next start or two. If you go to brooksbaseball.net, his sliders are clear as day. There's also an obvious distinction between his change-ups and fastballs despite the two being very close in velocity.

I hope it was intentional or a weather thing, but he's pitched in cold weather before and never had this little velocity. I also remember his fastball not being very fast in Spring Training, but I chalked that up to working up to it. I don't expect him to hit 100 again, but he should be touching 98 and sitting at 94, 95. He wasn't.

Eric said...

Here's what Stras had to say about it:

Strasburg retired the last 10 hitters he faced, struck out 10 overall against two walks and threw only 41 pitches in his final three innings. His fastball reached 95 mph in the first, but in his latter innings it hummed between 91 and 93, less velocity than usual. He did not seem concerned, and after all, the Mets couldn’t hit it, anyway.

“It felt pretty good,” Strasburg said. “I guess radar guns have [an] offseason, too.”


I guess we can only wait...

cass said...

Just checked Brooks and noticed that all pitches are in fact down a bit.

I will note that Citi Field is one of the parks that had the new track-everything installed by MLBAM this year so maybe that somehow threw off pitch-f/x? But pitch-f/x is run by another company.

Ah, I should check other pitchers yesterday.

Storen's velocity was way down, completely below all previous results. Gee's was down, but not below his slowest months. Clippard's velo was actually up. Other pitchers I checked were about the same as before.

So it could be a calibration or weather issue, but I'll still be worried till Saturday. I hope Strasburg is right.

Eric said...

So, Knorr referenced which bone he thought Ramos injured. I didn't pick it up clearly (thought he said "Hammy"), but someone on Nats insider said the word is "Hamate"

From wiki:
The hamate bone is the bone most commonly fractured when an amateur golfer hits the ground hard with a golf club on the downswing. The fracture is usually a hairline fracture, commonly missed on normal X-Rays...



...

It is also a common injury in baseball players. Several professional baseball players have had the bone removed during the course of their careers.[3][4][5][6][7] This condition has been called "Wilson's Wrist".[8]


Only Wilson Ramos would happen upon an injury that already bears his name.

Zimmerman11 said...

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/10706590/vladimir-guerrero-signs-one-day-deal-retire-los-angeles-angels

I guess he couldn't sign a one day deal with the Expos...

cass said...

And Dave Cameron's on it.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/stephen-strasburg-and-early-season-velocities/

Harper said...

cass - yep, gist of the article is "April velocities are down. Radar seemed slow. Keep an eye on it"

Mick said...

Looks like Parnell was injured--and low velocity was an indicator: http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/bobby-parnell-has-incomplete-mcl-tear-could-require-surgery-1.7571153

Mick said...

Looks like Parnell was injured--and low velocity was an indicator: http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/bobby-parnell-has-incomplete-mcl-tear-could-require-surgery-1.7571153

blovy8 said...

Clearly, I shouldn't have taken the injury-prone bait the other day...


I'd rather take a shot on Leon than Solano.

Froggy said...

Looks like you nailed it with the prediction of 'get a 100 games out of Ramos' there Harper. But I got a chuckle when LaRoche hit that homer I thought of you and how I would like you to continue bashing how bad he is and how Rendon doesn't have any power. Looks like you could be good luck for those two anyways.

DezoPenguin said...

Ditto on Leon vs. Solano. Though from that perspective, it has to be a good sign for those of us who favor him that Leon held on right to the end of spring training with a chance to be the 25th man before the Frandsen acquisition. That suggests that Williams and/or Rizzo have more faith in him than Solano, which seems like an entirely reasonable proposition.

Zimmerman11 said...

It was cold out. Stras is a SoCal guy... he'll be fine when the sun finally comes out.

Eric said...

Ramos likely needs surgery for hamate fracture, out 4-8 weeks

:(

blovy8 said...

Maybe he'll hit like Griffey did after he had it.

Wally said...

Harper - if you're Rizzo, would you upgrade or just ride this out and hope Ramos comes back without a big power dip?

cass said...

Williams is batting Harper 6th tonight. He's trolling us, I think.

Anonymous said...

Ha!

You were right about Lobaton in the 8 spot but, instead of Desmond 4th, Rendon 6th, we're looking at Harper 6th and Desmond 7th.

Crazytown.

Zimmerman11 said...

He's got 1-7 in the lineup backwards, LOL...


Span
Rendon
Werth
Laroche
Zimm
Harper
Desmond...

Would be much better if it were inverted.

Desmond
Harper
Zimm
Laroche
Werth
Rendon
Span

Not a good sign I don't think for Matty Williams.

Erich said...

Yeah, seriously. What is with the lineup?

blovy8 said...

Going with the hot hand. At least the lineup is flexible...

Eric said...

Turns out it wasn't such a terrible idea. 13 hits with a Desi homer.

Also, I think Span > Rendon could evolve into an excellent 1 - 2 punch at the top of the order.

Anonymous said...

I would think, though, that had the lineup been in a different order we would have been able to get more than 5 runs out of 13 hits.

cass said...

Span's been hot. It's two games, but I can dream. Triples are so fun to watch. As long as he keeps hitting like this, he'll be fine at #1. But he likely won't.

A team is never as good as it looks when it wins. A team is never as good as it looks when it wins. Especially against the Mets.

Donald said...

Not complaining, but ... well okay, I'm complaining. More updates, Harper!

Have you seen anything in these first two games that makes you think any differently about the Nats season. I know it's a tiny sample.