Nationals Baseball: Pitching review

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Pitching review

On with the show : 

Trade X for Zobrist! 

Hey! That's what I've been saying!

Hey you say let them all walk and spend money on international guys - how does international bonus pool money work? 

I didn't know myself initially but after some research the gist of it is that you can sign professional international players who are 23 or older like any other FAs. These are generally Japanese/Korean players and veterans of the Cuban league. Anyone younger is considered an amateur.  There's a little more to it but as a rule of thumb you can just go by age. If they are 23+ they are likely FAs. If they are under 23 they are likely amateurs. For the amateurs, you have a pool of money to spend. If you go over a little you get taxed. If you go over a lot you get taxed and they won't let you sign high $ guys for the next year or two. Here's a good quick review on it

Ship Cole to get Beltre or Donaldson, move Rendon back to 2nd, re-sign ZNN/Fister.

Fine by me but while that might work with the Rangers I bet the A's want more (I would). Also, although Rendon back to 2nd is objectively the right move - media and a good number of fans don't care about that. If you make Rendon even seem unhappy and he does worse you'll have to deal with a ton of headaches outside of baseball. Just saying.

Forget international guys! I want guys here if we're letting our pitchers walk! 

I mostly agree, if you can get young guys in deals. But don't be fooled by the failures of 10 years ago. Our reading of international guys is getting better every day.  Has there been a big signing in the past 5 years that didn't work out on some level?  I'm really asking.

The price for starting pitching will go down, a lot of decent pitchers in the market the next few years.

You may be right for a singular year but I'm not ever betting on the price ever going down.

Clippard might get over 9 million in arbitration! That's too much! Trade him!

It is! I think the model is wrong for Clippard - looking at all those comparisons I think he's been compared to closers. I'd expect something under 8 would be more likely and he'll probably settle with the Nats in the 7 million range. Which is still a lot! So trade him? Sure... if you can get something back. See next question for a continuation of the discussion

How much of a pen is replaceable? If it's a lot then should you deal anyone getting expensive? 

You guys all know I think bullpen roles are pretty replaceable. The innings and goals are limited so any live arm has a chance to do well and a decent org should be able to piece together a decent three relievers over the course of a season. So I have no issue dealing guys... in general. But for a team like the Nats, who will need to compete from Day 1, you need to be careful. While I'd bet money there's a decent Clippard replacement in the Nats org, it can take time to find that person. And taking that time may mean some Ws become Ls. A bad team can (and should) trade these types of guys, an extra few Ls is worth it. A good team has to be more judicious. Since I don't fully trust Barrett yet, (or Storen off another playoff meltdown) it'd take a very good deal for me to deal Clip.

Detwiler - what kind of value can you get? 

This is alot like the Espy issue from last year. You have a guy that was a starter that has seen his role diminished and ultimately could be replaced.  They should be dealt. BUT the team dealing can't shake the images of what was, while the team dealing FOR is basing value on what is. When it came to Danny nothing ever happened I think in large part because the Nats saw him as a starting 2B that might be a good one if he put it back together. Teams wanting to deal saw him as a spot starter who they might luck into something more. When it comes to Detwiler, if the Nats see him as a starter who might be a mid-rotation guy, and want that value back they're going to get no takers. If they price him as a swingman that might end up in the rotation they could get something back. To put it in prospect terms - you can get something, but nothing close to guaranteed. I think you can't get something that projects to be anything more than a back-level rotation guy or a utility IF. If you're lucky you can get one of these with a chance of being something more themselves.

Package Detwiler!

Good idea. Like Espy was last year. He's a tempting throw-in rather than a centerpiece. If that's what it takes to get a deal done for whatever then throw him in. He'll be 29 next year, a free agent in 2 years, his value could easily crash. It's time to use him for something.


Chaz R said...

It would truly be a waste this offseason if they didn't use Det for some kind of package deal to get stronger at 2B or a deal for a power hitter for 3B and move Rendon back to 2B. Alhtough, I do agree with you harper, it's unlikely they will want to upset a good thing with Rendon at 3B.

Harper said...

My ideal straight up deal would be Detwiler for Gordon Beckham. LITB for LITB. Unfortunately he finished strong and the Angels are kinda maybe looking to ship out Kendrick.

Donald said...

I'd be really surprised if Detwiler is still with the Nats next season. I'd be surprised if Espi weren't though.

It will be interesting to see if Rizzo goes small ball this off season or swings for the fences.

Anonymous said...

how about that korean 2b dude...

beesh said...

who do we expect to get back if this znn trade to the cubs is real?

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