It's likely that...
- Ian remains a Top 5ish SS over the next two seasons, with fair defense and good power.
- Ian's power has seen it's best days. He likely won't top the low 20s in HRs more than a couple times the rest of his career.
- Ian remains a Top 15 SS most of his next contract. This is less about Ian, who will decline, and more about his peers, who are generally older.
- Ian will get a contract after next year that will top the 5/80 that the Nats essentially offered. (discounting bought out arbitration years)
- Ian can adjust his approach to best fit his declining power. He has the speed to be a 2B/3B hitter but achieved great success as a free-swinging HR hitter.
- Ian's will be a viable shortstop beyond those two years. Last year's fielding numbers note a decline in range but single year numbers are iffy.
- The Nats can replace Ian with anything comparable if they let him walk. The prospects are questionable and the FA market weak. Rizzo though has shown himself adept at the deal.
If you don't believe he can adjust and think last year's fielding numbers were a sign then it's definitely a good idea to let Ian go.
If you are inbetween - then the deal probably dictates what you think. I think the Nats shouldn't go past 5 years (+1 arb year). Price is less of an issue for me.
Christmas Movie Reviews (I watch a ton of these things)
In case you get stuck at a home without internet and need to choose between this terrible movie or that terrible movie let me guide you through the morass. I can move this elsewhere if you don't want it clogging up all the valuable Nats news such as "Hairston is a FA"! Also understand for "watchability" I have a tolerance for these things that ranks right up with captured KGB agents. Your personal watchability rankings may vary.
12 Men of Christmas
X(Mas)-Factor: Someone wore red in an early scene.
Kids acting: Not a mop-top to be seen.
Watchability: I like Kristin Chenoweth. Pushing Daisies was great!
"Hey it's"! : Kristin Chenoweth! Anna Chlumsky! That regular guy from Cougartown!
You'll find a good number of these were pitched to the network as a regular movie, where some room of suits told the writer "it hits females 35-49, but right now we're looking for holiday movies. If you can Christmas it up by 20%..." The writer went back, found and replaced "Office Party" with "Christmas Party" and $$$! Start 15 minutes in and you'd never know it's a holiday movie so if you are a hater, it's a good movie for you. Hater.
The movie itself is standard "city girl learns something from country folk, and they learn something back" but not as overbearing as that theme usually is. Less "heartless bitch delivering baby cows in the rain" and more "slightly fancy girl doing scenic rock climbing". It also features pre-Veep Anna Chlumsky so you can spend parts of the movie waiting for her to swear acerbically (spoiler: happens one time but that's when you were flipping channels).
I give it 6 out of 10 rudolphs.
Christmas on the Bayou
X(Mas)-Factor: Pere Noel says "Der are sum t'ings"
Kids acting: Yep, and nervously singing too!
Watchability: Champagne and Slim-Fast
"Hey it's"! : Ed Asner! Markie Post! Randy Travis! Apparently people from One Tree Hill but that's not a show I watched!
Did I mention that last movie was about a hard-charging marketing executive from NYC? Well this movie switches it up and it's about a hard-charging marketing executive from NYC... with a child. See because marketing is not what Christmas is about! Now buy what is on the commercials during this movie!
Again we get the heaping helping "small town people know what life is all about" treatment because people who live in cities are apparently terrible. We also get an added dash of it being in the South, because small town people in the South make small town people in the North, West, or MidWest look like Sex and the City extras. The official Christmas rankings of "realness" goes from most real to least:
Farmers
Ranchers
Small Town Southerners
Small Town Non-Southerners
City Folk
NYC Folk
LA Folk
But get past the inherent triteness and the acting isn't terrible, the kid is not central to the movie, and watching Ed Asner play a cajun Santa is bon temps jumbalaya Lash Leroux! If you can get over the plot trying to make you believe she so hurt by a previous bad marriage that years later she can't even think about dating, this'll do as background noise.
I'll give it 5 out of 10 corn cob pipes.
13 comments:
I think you give Ian 6 years and plan to move him to 2B. Beyond just hitting and fielding, Ian is a team leader. That probably shouldn't figure into the calculations, but I think it should. Hopefully, the numbers will be good enough for Ian, as some team is likely to over pay for him.
I agree - if it's six years counting 2015.
Offer 6/$$$ now and remind him that if he hits .250 with 15 homers and plays a lousy SS he's not going to beat that. 2015 is a big risk for him given the steady decline from 2012 to 2014
Is that ... passion I sense in Harper "soulless automaton" Gordek's writing about (*throws up in mouth a little*) Christmas movies?! Is this what being a Yankees fan does to a person's love of baseball? You'd think that paying A-rod until he's 73 would be enough unintentional comedy (that you clearly relish in movies) to rekindle that fire.
P.S. More movie reviews please
Harper what is your favorite movie, and what is your favorite Christmas movie?
Ben - I'm only a soulless automaton when it comes to the Nats. In everything else my hot latin blood takes over. Except A-Rod. I kind of never cared about him or his contract. Odd.
Andrew - that would be Die Hard and Die Hard.
Yippeeyokayay....(family blog).
I'm now betting on Rizzo letting Ian play out his year and seeing what's on the other side. Used to be the high heater got hammered into the seats but now....well, you can't sign what's turning into a Fransden to a long term deal.
So even Detwiler got tendered? I believe Rizzo is still going to deal a pitcher or two..
Chaos
Thoughts on the Star Wars trailer?
Braves non-tender Beachy and Medlen? I'm surprised...
Yes 2nd TJ surgery for both... but wouldn't their arbitration awards reflect that?
I think Desmond leaves. I actually hope he stays, but he keeps mentioning that he doesn't want to take a lesser deal that could impact other shortstops in the league. That usually translates to I'm taking the most money.
I'd sign Medlen in a heartbeat. He was strong out of the pen for the Braves. Plus the Nats have good history of rehabbing these guys.
The Star Wars trailer is proof that what the Star Wars franchise has needed most is less George Lucas. Pretty awesome.
Signing Medlen (or Beachy!) and having him come back as a thorn in the Braves' side would be my favorite move ever. Unless we could somehow resuscitate Dan Uggla. Then that would be my fav.
Agreed, Harper: Die Hard is the best Christmas movie ever. I watch it every year with my family. People seem to think that's weird.
Chaos - maybe but I think letting Ian play it out is as good as letting him walk. He'll always get more out there. The key to keeping him would be to pay him more for the year other teams can't: 2015.
I think question isn't if Detwiler is gone, it's when.
Anon - not a Star Wars guy so it seems... ok! At the very least keeps my faith that it won't be boring. Abrams keeps things moving.
Z11 - Beachy isn't really a suprise. 2nd TJ real close time wise and wasn't good inbetween. He's a complete reclamation project - maybe a change over to reliever. Braves didn't want to bother.
Medlen is a surprise but apparently he wants teams to take full risk. Braves offered fair deal for 2015 but team-favored 2016 and he balked. I think they are gambling he wont' get a better deal than whatever they are offering. Though, I suppose he might take a 1yr/<5mill deal somewhere betting on himself.
Jay - At this point I do too. I don't think the Nats will offer him close to the money he could get (counting 2015 - 7/140 isn't crazy idea)
As I said up there - I think Medlen is going to be a one year thing for another team. (Unless you want to assume more risk) Rizzo loves those type of deals, but he isn't into assuming risk.
CXP - I think Medlen signs with Yanks 2 yrs/ 9 mill or something like that. They'll eat some risk on a deal that "cheap"
I'd totally be for an Uggla minor league deal problem is he wants a major league deal and no AAA time. Ha!
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