Yeah, keeping in Scherzer with that high a pitch count definitely felt like one of those "Better not use my relievers, might need them tomorrow" kind of moves.
They have an off day tomorrow. Is MW just asleep at the wheel? I'm beginning to think last year was just foolproof. Last year... Let's see it's the 8th inning Clippard goes in now. Let's see 9th inning ok Soriano. On and on. This year ... it's 8th inning let's have Sherzer throw 150 pitches. Yeah that's a good idea. Very frustrating.
Matt Williams bothers me a heck of a lot more than any manager should. It's not even a matter of incompetence, it's a lack of common sense. I understand the job is hard and I definitely couldn't do it myself, but come on there are so many things in the moment (not just in hindsight) that make me want to scream. Stras last night, Scherzer today, it's ridiculous.
The late, great Dick Williams said in his autobiography that the hardest part about managing--for him, anyway--was knowing when to change pitchers. (But at least he admitted it.)
Now I have a question for all you long-time Nats fans. When did Desmond start that ritual where he removes Bryce's helmet after the kid homers? It's kind of . . . well, cool.
Yeah boy, you would hate to see the Nats lose a game after such a performance by the star player. That's a morale destroyer. Thankfully the team held it together despite the managerial incompetence. Still makes you worry going forward.
Meh. Going into the 8th Scherzer's pitch count was OK for an "ace" pitcher on a role (and he'd pretty much sailed along since the 2nd). The bullpen has been leaned on pretty hard the past week, esp. with Strasburg's 3IP outing yesterday. I can understand trying to get the bullpen squared away.
And I guarantee you that if MW had hooked Scherzer and brought in some of the "B" relievers (Treinen, etc) and Stanton had hit that bomb, there would be commenters in here ripping MW for that. And if the bullpen had lost the game completely, they'd be marching on Nats Park with torches and pitchforks.
Yes, Dick Williams admitted that knowing when to change pitchers was one of the hardest parts of managing. But apparently it's an easy decision ... on the internet.
John C. - So you think people are ripping MW without cause? You are right that leaving Scherzer in is not totally idiotic ("not totally idiotic" being the bar MW has set for himself) but in what world does filling out a lineup card with with desmond and escobar hitting 2 and 3 make sense? Thats basically saying you want them to have more at bats than Harper ... which ... ummm ... yeah, totally idiotic.
Okay, you put in Scherzer in the 8th. Cool, I get it. But he's looking a bit lifeless and lets two on, only to face one of the best hitters in baseball on a day when the park is playing small. You don't agree that it's stupid to save your relievers in that situation even when you have the next day off? Oh well, we got the win, maybe Williams learned something, the only harm was to Scherzer's stats.
Agree that Roark is a criminally underrated player. His flexibility is incredible. He refuses to be Detwilered.
Actually, if you're not going to bat Bryce second, he should hit fourth, if you're going for the "sabermetrically optimal" lineup. The "hit your best hitter third" conventional wisdom actually turns out to be wrong. If we're looking at current performance (instead of projected future performance), Span-Yuney-?-Bryce actually makes sense. (Yuney 3rd seems like a nod to conventional wisdom, though.)
Man, it felt good to have Storen K Stanton and Ozuna back to back to close it out, though. When the first two got on (especially with the HBP to open the inning), I was all but certain we were about to choke another one...
I think leaving Scherzer in for the 8th speaks more about MW's lack of confidence in the pen than his confidence in Max. Or he was having ZNN playoff flashbacks.
Regardless, Bryce hit those bombs bc my 14mo daughter wore her Harper jersey for the first time.
"Okay, you put in Scherzer in the 8th. Cool, I get it. But he's looking a bit lifeless and lets two on, only to face one of the best hitters in baseball on a day when the park is playing small. You don't agree that it's stupid to save your relievers in that situation even when you have the next day off? Oh well, we got the win, maybe Williams learned something, the only harm was to Scherzer's stats."
@Kenny B. - Agreed. I defended him for most of last year (baserunning, defensive planning, 98 wins, etc) but his pitcher management in the playoffs and this season has been inexcusable. (And I'm not even talking about pulling ZNN for Storen, which was actually a defensible call.) I hope he learned something, though I'm not sure how much evidence we have that he learns from experience. But I guess if guys like Ned Yost and Randy Wittman can figure it out, anything is possible.
One thing that's gone conspicuously unmentioned is that Williams allowed Scherzer to lead off the bottom of the 7th. Sure, we managed to scrape out 2 runs there, but it would have been nice not to give up an out right off the bat.
Given that he'd already eclipsed 100 pitches and the Marlins were about to face him for the 4th time through the order anyway, I thought the decision was pretty indefensible at the time. Watching him struggle through the top of the 8th only added to the weight of evidence against it.
On Matt Williams, I think it was Dave Schoenfield who pointed out that leaving Strasburg in for two innings after his grimace seemed curious for a team that previously had erred on the side of protecting him. Last night's decision to let Scherzer pitch the 8th inning was more understandable. I remember all of the hair pulling on this page over Williams' decision to pull ZNN late into the 9th during last year's playoff against the Giants. If ZNN had given up the tying run instead of Storen, we'd have pummeled him for that, too. Which is to say that, at the tactical level, managing is gambling (Rizzo left MW with a largely untested bullpen this year, making pitcher management more of a gamble that it has been). But gambling with a player's health is strategically risky.
@JohnC - That's right. But generally it's quibbles over whether to hit Bryce 2nd or 3rd that don't matter as much.
Mortal sins like putting .300 OBP Desmond and .250 OBP Werth in front of Harper really does have a significant impact. Comparing optimal to slightly less optimal batting orders yields miniscule differences. Comparing BEST possible batting order to WORST possible (like batting 2 terrible OBP guys 2nd/3rd) makes a little more difference.
34 comments:
Bryce Harper is good.
Bryce Harper is really good
Bryce Harper is 3HOMERUNSOMG good
Understand Harp...but I've hitting F5 all day waiting for your thoughts on Stras :-)
Good decision on creating this.
I'm legitimately concerned I could be hit by one of Bryce Harper's batted balls. I am not in the stadium.
Warm day, Scherzer cruising, Bryce mashing... if you ignore the list of injured players, you can see what the team is supposed to look like.
Rob - better to wait until we hear news anyway.
is Matt Williams even trying?
Yeah, keeping in Scherzer with that high a pitch count definitely felt like one of those "Better not use my relievers, might need them tomorrow" kind of moves.
especially with Stanton hitting
good thing Harper is amazing
They have an off day tomorrow. Is MW just asleep at the wheel? I'm beginning to think last year was just foolproof. Last year... Let's see it's the 8th inning Clippard goes in now. Let's see 9th inning ok Soriano. On and on. This year ... it's 8th inning let's have Sherzer throw 150 pitches. Yeah that's a good idea. Very frustrating.
Matt Williams is terrible. I can no longer defend him.
Matt Williams bothers me a heck of a lot more than any manager should. It's not even a matter of incompetence, it's a lack of common sense. I understand the job is hard and I definitely couldn't do it myself, but come on there are so many things in the moment (not just in hindsight) that make me want to scream. Stras last night, Scherzer today, it's ridiculous.
Makes you wonder what his assistants are telling him. Shouldn't McCatty be in his ear on Stras and Scherzer and be like hey boss, you might wanna....
And Storen Ks Stanton et. al. to close it out... after putting the first two on base...heart attach time.
That akward feeling you get when Giancarlo comes up in the 9th as the go-ahead run in a game Harper hits three HRs and we should win going away.
And Storen Ks Stanton et. al. to close it out... after putting the first two on base...heart attach time.
That akward feeling you get when Giancarlo comes up in the 9th as the go-ahead run in a game Harper hits three HRs and we should win going away.
The late, great Dick Williams said in his autobiography that the hardest part about managing--for him, anyway--was knowing when to change pitchers. (But at least he admitted it.)
Now I have a question for all you long-time Nats fans. When did Desmond start that ritual where he removes Bryce's helmet after the kid homers? It's kind of . . . well, cool.
Yeah boy, you would hate to see the Nats lose a game after such a performance by the star player. That's a morale destroyer. Thankfully the team held it together despite the managerial incompetence. Still makes you worry going forward.
Meh. Going into the 8th Scherzer's pitch count was OK for an "ace" pitcher on a role (and he'd pretty much sailed along since the 2nd). The bullpen has been leaned on pretty hard the past week, esp. with Strasburg's 3IP outing yesterday. I can understand trying to get the bullpen squared away.
And I guarantee you that if MW had hooked Scherzer and brought in some of the "B" relievers (Treinen, etc) and Stanton had hit that bomb, there would be commenters in here ripping MW for that. And if the bullpen had lost the game completely, they'd be marching on Nats Park with torches and pitchforks.
Yes, Dick Williams admitted that knowing when to change pitchers was one of the hardest parts of managing. But apparently it's an easy decision ... on the internet.
I don't care if max throws 120 pitches he gets an extra day off before his next start anyway.
Bryce! Enough said on this topic.
Roark can do anything close, start, long relief, set up man, LOOGY, ROOGY, you name it.
John C. - So you think people are ripping MW without cause? You are right that leaving Scherzer in is not totally idiotic ("not totally idiotic" being the bar MW has set for himself) but in what world does filling out a lineup card with with desmond and escobar hitting 2 and 3 make sense? Thats basically saying you want them to have more at bats than Harper ... which ... ummm ... yeah, totally idiotic.
Okay, you put in Scherzer in the 8th. Cool, I get it. But he's looking a bit lifeless and lets two on, only to face one of the best hitters in baseball on a day when the park is playing small. You don't agree that it's stupid to save your relievers in that situation even when you have the next day off? Oh well, we got the win, maybe Williams learned something, the only harm was to Scherzer's stats.
Agree that Roark is a criminally underrated player. His flexibility is incredible. He refuses to be Detwilered.
Actually, if you're not going to bat Bryce second, he should hit fourth, if you're going for the "sabermetrically optimal" lineup. The "hit your best hitter third" conventional wisdom actually turns out to be wrong. If we're looking at current performance (instead of projected future performance), Span-Yuney-?-Bryce actually makes sense. (Yuney 3rd seems like a nod to conventional wisdom, though.)
Man, it felt good to have Storen K Stanton and Ozuna back to back to close it out, though. When the first two got on (especially with the HBP to open the inning), I was all but certain we were about to choke another one...
I think leaving Scherzer in for the 8th speaks more about MW's lack of confidence in the pen than his confidence in Max. Or he was having ZNN playoff flashbacks.
Regardless, Bryce hit those bombs bc my 14mo daughter wore her Harper jersey for the first time.
DezoPenguin-
What if your best OBP guy and best power hitter are the same guy. Where would he bat in an optimal lineup?
Wish list:
-New manager
-Brandon Phillips
-Aroldis Chapman
-Seriously, a new manager
"Okay, you put in Scherzer in the 8th. Cool, I get it. But he's looking a bit lifeless and lets two on, only to face one of the best hitters in baseball on a day when the park is playing small. You don't agree that it's stupid to save your relievers in that situation even when you have the next day off? Oh well, we got the win, maybe Williams learned something, the only harm was to Scherzer's stats."
@Kenny B. - Agreed. I defended him for most of last year (baserunning, defensive planning, 98 wins, etc) but his pitcher management in the playoffs and this season has been inexcusable. (And I'm not even talking about pulling ZNN for Storen, which was actually a defensible call.) I hope he learned something, though I'm not sure how much evidence we have that he learns from experience. But I guess if guys like Ned Yost and Randy Wittman can figure it out, anything is possible.
One thing that's gone conspicuously unmentioned is that Williams allowed Scherzer to lead off the bottom of the 7th. Sure, we managed to scrape out 2 runs there, but it would have been nice not to give up an out right off the bat.
Given that he'd already eclipsed 100 pitches and the Marlins were about to face him for the 4th time through the order anyway, I thought the decision was pretty indefensible at the time. Watching him struggle through the top of the 8th only added to the weight of evidence against it.
On Matt Williams, I think it was Dave Schoenfield who pointed out that leaving Strasburg in for two innings after his grimace seemed curious for a team that previously had erred on the side of protecting him. Last night's decision to let Scherzer pitch the 8th inning was more understandable. I remember all of the hair pulling on this page over Williams' decision to pull ZNN late into the 9th during last year's playoff against the Giants. If ZNN had given up the tying run instead of Storen, we'd have pummeled him for that, too. Which is to say that, at the tactical level, managing is gambling (Rizzo left MW with a largely untested bullpen this year, making pitcher management more of a gamble that it has been). But gambling with a player's health is strategically risky.
@CHC: Second. AFAIK, the best overall hitter in the lineup goes second, the best power hitter fourth, the best OBP guy leadoff.
So if the Nats were hitting like we think they ought to hit, a top four of Span-Bryce-Werth-Zim might make sense. Unfortunately, they're not.
All lineup b*tching should include the caveat/acknowledgment:
"NOTE: detailed statistical analysis has indicated that lineup order ultimately makes very little difference."
John C - are you Matt Williams, by any chance? Asking for a friend...
@JohnC - That's right. But generally it's quibbles over whether to hit Bryce 2nd or 3rd that don't matter as much.
Mortal sins like putting .300 OBP Desmond and .250 OBP Werth in front of Harper really does have a significant impact. Comparing optimal to slightly less optimal batting orders yields miniscule differences. Comparing BEST possible batting order to WORST possible (like batting 2 terrible OBP guys 2nd/3rd) makes a little more difference.
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