The Nats are far enough into the season (20%) that we can start to look as stats as things that are more concrete. You can have unexpectedly good half-seasons or even years, but generally luck (bad and good) starts to stretch itself thin in weeks, maybe a couple of months. Is there anything going on with the Nats that simply HAS to change? (or has to be injury related)
BABIP - while an exception might inexplicably keep it up for a year (I'm looking at you '13 Chris Johnson) generally a BABIP over .360 is reserved for known line drive guys or speed demons. And even those guys don't tend to keep that up for very long. There are two Nationals that are looking at a drop in BABIP and likely everything that comes with it - Yuney Escobar (.371) and Wilson Ramos (.368). If/when it does come it will hit these two pretty hard because they don't walk and haven't shown power this year (Wilson, what happened?). Lobaton (.500!) and Taylor (.390, even given speed that's high) should also see this come down.
On the flip-side around .250 is as bad as an everyday player will get, though a slow slugger might find himself under that. Of course while the ceiling is pretty firm the floor is not. You can simply not be good enough for everyday play which is likely the case for Tyler Moore (.143) and Dan Uggla (.244). Werth (.227! Insert Jackee jokes here! Although really your take-away from 227 should be Regina King who's been great in several things most notably arguably my favorite show on TV ever SouthLAnd) and Zimm (.252) are likely to see improvements... if they are healthy.
Going to the mound .250 to.325 is a decent range, though in this case the ceiling is the soft spot. Taking some history into account Strsasburg (.394) and Gio (.375) should see some better luck here. (Grace (.400), Barrett (.370)... that's your call). On the other hand no starters are getting overly lucky - Fister's on the edge but I'm just looking for sure things here. Thornton (.192) and Solis (.158) are the ones to watch so the recent decent pen stuff might be a bit of an oasis that the Nats are only temporarily stopped at.
HR//FB% - The pure home run guys can close in on 30% but generally 25% is a good estimate of the top you'll see in the majors. Nats don't really have a problem here as, well, they don't hit homers, but Bryce Harper's 32.7% is going to come down. Yeah sorry kids.Hhe's not hitting 50+ this year. He could still lead the league though.
Again the floors in baseball for hitters are squishier than the ceilings, and some guys in the majors just don't hit homers. Still percentages in the low single digits are rare and we can be informed by history, so Werth (3.6%), Ramos (4.8%), Desmond (8.0%) should all see a bump in power - assuming they are healthy.
For pitchers it's harder to pin this down but here's an odd stat. Barrett, Storen, Thornton, Grace, Solis and Treinen (yes Treinen) have yet to give up a home run. That's going to change. Strasburg (3.0%), ZNN (4.3%), Gio (5.0%) and Scherzer (5.3%) should all see some bump in that number too. But you can be pretty low - like in the 7-8% range so I'm not saying they'll blow up.
RISP - For batters only. This is more about deviation from your nomal stats. Expect Ramos (.407), Uggla (.353), & Escobar (.348) to drive in fewer. Espinosa (.059), Desmond (.115), and Werth (.208) to drive in more.
LOB% - This is just for the pitchers. Solis (100%) ain't this good, expect that luck to turn. Matt Grace (90%) is also too high and given everything else that makes me pretty worried about Grace being here very long. Thornton (44.4%) could stand to be luckier. ZNN (60.9%) should get better, as should Strasburg (65.3%) provided he's not hurt in someway.
Is there a take-away here. Not particularly. We see a mix of bad luck and good luck which is what you expect to see. If you twist my arm I'd expect both the pitching and offense to go down a half-step but it could easily be the other way. Escobar and Ramos will cool down but the potential is there for Werth, Zimm, and Desmond to start hitting better at more timely times. The only thing that makes me say "half step down" is the fact Werth and Zimm might really be hurt as opposed to just catching bad luck. The starting pitching is mostly tweaks and might even get better. Again - this is a GREAT rotation. Oddly given how spotty it has been I see the relief pitching with the biggest bust potential. Although that's probably a function of the way this pen is made up. Since there are so few defined roles, guys who stink get moved down and or out quickly and hot hands are ridden out. I'd just worry a bit about the hands being used now taking a bit of a dip. (I really expected Treinen to be a bit unlucky - nope - just has stunk) So I'd bet overall that while the starting pitching will slightly improve we're going to get more bumps in the bullpen road.