It's versus Blanka.
In the first 40 games the Nats started hot (9-1) then played middling ball for the remainder of time. (15-15). This sounds bad but it's actually not. If you have one really hot streak followed with .500 ball for a quarter of a season, and manage to repeat that 4 times you find yourself going into the penultimate game of the year 32 games over .500 (96-64 for those bad at math). That's not a good team, that's a great team.
It seems odd that avoiding being terrible is the hallmark of a great team but it is. The season is long and being terrible for a stretch is something that happens to most teams. If you don't get it under control quickly it can break your season. Take for example, the greatest team ever, the New York Yankees. They have been one of the best teams in baseball in May going 13-8 since the month started. However, they were one of the worst teams in baseball in April going 8-14 during the opening month. If they manage to keep up their play for the remainder of May, they are going to find themselves playing the best baseball in the majors... and also just a game or two above .500. Their margin for error has been mostly wiped clean. Another long round of bad baseball likely would sink the season.
So the Nats may have not played great baseball going into that first Mets series, but as important, they weren't playing bad baseball either. If the Nats' floor ends up being a month close to .500 then the season will be a breeze.
So that's the question of the moment, are the Nats a .500ish team that happened to have a hot streak at the exact right time to make us think otherwise? Or are the Nats a 90+ win team who will potentially fight for best record in baseball? Well, since the Mets series started the Nats have won 4 of 6 on the road versus a good Mets team and a capable Marlins squad. They seem to be answering the question in the latter direction. This next homestand, 7 games versus those same Mets and the not-clicking but still dangerous Cardinals, can get us further away from the idea that great play from this team is a fluke.
This series with the Mets is also important in the micro sense because the Nats can continue to force the Mets to play catch-up for a while with another win. Playing catch-up can be hard psychologically because you have to maintain your high level of play long enough not only to get to the team ahead of you but to pass them. Often you may accomplish the former only to slide a few games back soon after. It just happened in fact as the Mets took the division lead for 4 days two weeks ago. Or think of the Nats last season who twice climbed hills with runs of 18-4 and 11-3, only to see those leads slip away. The season becomes a bit easier for the team ahead because a loss or two isn't the end of the world. You are still ahead. And since losing the lead is often because of an extended period of good play by the other team it can be spun as "ok they had their hot streak, now it's our turn", rather than worrying if they are pulling away or you are fading. It begins to feel like the team ahead is the better team that must be beaten.
On the other hand if the Mets win the series then they set up the dogfight scenario we expected from the season. The Mets a half game up or up by 1.5 would be the rival the Nats would have to scoreboard watch nightly. A loss or two here would be a big deal and an extended run by them or crash by you sets up a chase scenario. The teams feel more equal in this scenario as they fight to stay close to eachother hoping to catch a hot run or for the other team to stumble.
This is all just feelings more than facts, especially at this point in the year. What feels like an insurmountable lead can disappear in a week in baseball even when we feel sure we know what these teams are. However, I've been looking to define the Nats all year and after a couple of false starts I might find myself with a good sense of what this team really is.
Other notes :
Ben Revere is finally having balls in play break his way as pretty much everyone said would happen. 7-14 in last few games and the average is up to .182. As long as you don't expect more than a bunch of singles from Ben Revere you'll be happy. Rendon too is having things go his way as expected 10-20 in past week, with 4 XBH, and 5 walks.
Scherzer had another good outing. So if for some reasons you were still on the edge of despair with him, get away from that edge. He did of course give up a home run but the walks were down again. He's not 2015 Max, but 2012-2014 Max were great pitchers too.
If you're looking for something new to worry about. Joe Ross might be the next thing up. His May has been decidedly blah (4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) and his last three starts especially have been unimpressive. Not that this is too big a worry. Roark looks fine and even these numbers are ok for a 5th starter. But for those looking at Ross as a #2 type it'd be nice to see a good start in one of his next two outings. He'll have STL next - who still have a great offense. After that will be Philly, who struggle to score even at home.
The Nats schedule isn't hard coming up but it isn't easy. They'll play 4 versus a Cardinals team I maintain is dangerous to finish up the homestand. Then they'll go away to the lucky Phillies, and terrible Reds, before ending the road trip with a tough White Sox team. Back home they'll get the Phillies again and then the Cubs. It's an overall stretch where if they beat the Mets .500 will probably be ok. The Nats schedule went easy - hard - but for the rest of the year it's pretty even assuming the NL East teams hold up. If the Mets are on their tail, they'll have their best chance to get separation, in late June as a @SD, @LA, @MIL road trip flows into an NYM, CIN, MIL homestand. Although I don't like to count on west coast trips for anything.
How is the Mets schedule after this series? They get the disappointing Dodgers and the White Sox at home then go on the road to play Miami, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. About the same. The Mets schedule for the rest of the year probably skews a bit tougher overall but they also have an easy stretch in Sept (@CIN, @ATL, @WSN, MIN, ATL). If things are close past the Nats/Mets series around Labor Day you probably give the Mets an edge down the home stretch. But a lot of baseball between then and now.
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26 comments:
Does anyone make anything of Zimmerman and Werth seemingly doing relatively well with regard to average batted ball velocity?
http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#avg-hit-velo
Two hardest hitters on team and 11th and 22nd, respectively. Of course, batted ball velocity doesn't include their taking strikes on fast balls on the outer half to get behind and then swinging and missing the slider in the left handed batters' box.
One thing that should be pointed out is the Nats' schedule during their .500 streak. In the month of May the only team they played which isn't above .500 right now is the Tigers...who are one game below, and still formidable. If we go back to the late-April start of the .500 streak, you only add the Twins in there. That's a little over a month where there was only one easy opponent. Good teams go .500 during those streaks.
If the Nats are still ahead of the Mets in mid-June after their Cubs series, I think they're in the driver's seat for the rest of the year (barring injuries of course).
Would have been nice to get the sweep in Miami. Geez, that double play in the top of the 9th.
Harper: what's your view on Bryce? To my eye it seems like he's just not at Barry Bonds-level ridiculousness where he maintains his timing, etc when even he's only getting 1-2 real ABs a game. It's like he doesn't know whether he's about to get walked or not, and is a little screwed up mentally perhaps. Granted the guy is still getting on base 45% of the time. He's just not doing tons of damage when people throw him strikes and seems frustrated. I'm not too worried about him. His BABIP is extremely low. I'd be surprised if he doesn't have a torrid hot streak coming up in the next month. But with the amount he's getting pitched, I think 30-is homers this year might be more realistic than 40.
Looks like Werth has a Juri Han left eyeball since moving to the 2 spot.
It's time to make baseball fun again (for me) Bryce... that means you start mashing from now until the ASB! Git R Dun :)
D Young- For both I take it to be compensating for issues by just swinging hard. Lack of driving balls other way plays into this idea. Though they have different issues when you look past that. Zimm is struggling bc he's missing more pitches. Werth isn't squaring up the ball. I tend to believe (mainly bc of age) that Zimm's is an approach issue that might be fixed and Werth's is an age issue that won't be.
mike k - yeah - they are doing what they should - play about .500 against good teams and beat up on bad ones.
Carl - it'll happen. Ramos had been kind of due for that.
Bx - I don't know. He's only had 69 ABs during this stretch of being walked all the time so effectively it could just be an extended cold streak. Instead of the month that it looks like it's really only like he's finishing up that 3rd week in terms of ABs. So I'd give it another week.
Froggy - you have aged me out of the series. First appearance 2010?
Yeah, I believe it was 2010 with SSF-IV
...the backstory of the Feng Shui eyeball here where she mops the floor with Chun Li, Guile and Cammy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFOOiHX4Azc
Who would have thought at this point in the season that Gio would have the lowest ERA among Nationals starters and Max would have the highest?
The problem is that I would favor the Mets in each of the next 3 games. Colon usually pitches us pretty tough (last time not withstanding). Harvey is due for a "shut up, I thought I was fine" game. Strasburg is due for a not so great game. Matz has pitched well this year, and Roark at times has been up and down. In fact, I'm picking the Mets to sweep. Revere can't hit and is slow, Werth has a glass left eye, so he isn't drawing any more walks or getting any hits, the Mets didn't even want Murphy back, Zim stinks and would have been better if he had gone to Virginia Tech, Redon should be named "Tony no bags", Ramos only had a sham Lasik surgery - they never fixed anything, Espinosa never gets hit by a pitch, and of course Harper is the most overrated player in MLB - remember that survey. Stras is overrated too and not worth the contract he signed. Baker has to have a negative WAMW rating.
@Jay - Are you crazy? Due theory supporting a sweep? And Revere's been doing well over the....oh
Oh I get it
I'm sorry, Harper, I stopped reading after "Take for example, the greatest team ever, the New York Yankees." Everyone knows the Red Sox are the greatest team ever... /snark
ABSOLUTELY THEY AR DUE!!!!11!!!! Jayson Werthless is a washed up pirate who bats like he wears an eyepatch and runs like he is missing a leg!!11!!!! ANT-ony RendPWN'd has had a lucky week and we all know that his time is UP!@!11!! Harper? Pffft! That kid needs to go spend more time in little league since he's completey unnable to homerun in teh Majers amirite? Stras? DONE! Roark? DONE!!
Jay - that's reaching. I can see Matz over Roark even though Roark is good. You can probably convince yourself Colon ofver Gio despite what the records say just bc I still think we think of Gio as not very good (even though he has been) and Colon might pitch completely differently negating the "face them again right away" thing. (But still I'd favor Gio). No way you can pick Harvey over Stras right now with anything more than gut
Harper: SHUT UP YOU'RE RUINING THE REVERSE JINX.
When I think of Colon, I think of Fathers Day.
Too soon?
http://nymag.com/betamale/2016/05/bartolo-colon-demonstrates-why-you-should-never-serve-as-your-own-attorney.html
I like the Street Fighter reference, but I'm not sure I understand why it's used here. What is the relevance of Blanka to the Nats/Mets series? Really seems to me like a Ken/Ryu fight, since the combatants are remarkably similar but wear different colors and come from different places.
Blanka is Colon. Colon is Blanka. YOu'll never see them both in the same place/same time :)
Kenny B, I think Juri and Chun-Li are like matter and anti-matter...Nats / Mets same same. Except, Juri just doesn't give a flock (of seagulls).
Can somebody explain to me why Ramos continues to bat so low in the order? I understand he's a DP machine and that he's insanely slow. Believe me. I do. But he's also been the 3rd best hitter on the team BY LIGHT YEARS and is getting on base with nobody to drive him in (helllllo Danny and pitchers!). At some point soon, this team needs to acknowledge that Werth and Zim (but especially Werth) are no longer above average major league hitters and move them down in the order. As in....below Rendon, Ramos, and Murphy to 6-7-8-9 land. Once Trea Turner comes up, I may like to see: Revere, Turner, Harper, Murphy, Ramos, Rendon, Zim, Werth. Granted, I still think Rendon is a natural Number 2 hitter, but let's not touch him since he seems to have responded to being lower in the order.
Certainly everyone wants to BELIEVE this is or can be a great Nats team. Anthony Rendon and Ben Revere may finally be finding their groove at the plate. I hope so. Revere getting on base is the key to getting this offense going. I learned as a kid from watching Lou Brock (and later Ricky Henderson) that leadoff speed is a complete game changer. Get on, steal second, bunt or hit or groundout to get him to third, sac fly or hit to score a run. It's especially effective on the road to give your pitcher a lead before he ever takes the mound.
If Ben can get his leadoff OBP to around .400, which is what a leadoff guy should be aiming for, WE SHOULD HAVE A RUN IN THE FIRST INNING FOUR OUT OF EVERY TEN GAMES. That's a huge advantage. But remember, it's leadoff OBP, not total OBP. No better example of how deceptive OBP for a leadoff hitter can be than Jayson Werth last year. In the one spot he batted nearly .400 in third-time-around plate appearances. Unfortunately he was something like three for thirty-five in first inning ABs as the leadoff man. Instead of starting every fourth game with a run in the can, we started almost every game giving the other team an automatic out.
@Jay
Your post wants it both ways...
Whenever a trend favors the Nats or disfavors the Mets, you view it as a sign that the Mets are due or the Nats luck is due to run out.
Whenever a trend favors the Mets or disfavors the Nats, you view it as a systemic Mets advantage and/or Nats disadvantage.
So much for the Nationals' offense getting on track. One run against the Fat Tub Of Goo.
I was trying for the reverse jinx. Oh well. I'll leave that to others.
I agree that I would have liked the Nats to score more on Colon. However, it's not like he's getting shelled against other teams. Gio looked like old Gio (last year Gio) last night. You could be upset with Baker for playing Ramos, but he did have a point. If the Nats make the playoffs, then Ramos will be catching all of those games. Starting Lobeton in game 2 of the NLDS bc he's "Gio's catcher" and watching him go 0-for whatever isn't really an option. They say momentum is the next night's starting pitcher. Hopefully, Strasburg can pitch well and the Nats can win. They only need 1 of these 3 games since they took 2/3 in New York.
Stras>>>Harvey. 'Nuff said...
I'm less worried about the Nats offense last night. I think that the 5 run third inning was a bit deflating for the team. You always hope that professionals will just fight through that and keep pushing, but I think it's a somewhat inevitable human response.
This series to me is more of a barometer for where the Mets are than the Nats. If the Mets win this series, I think they'll really show that they are in it despite having a mixed start to the season. If the Nats take this series, I think it'll show a little more separation between the two (still not much, but some). Injuries could shift things dramatically between now and the end of the season, but I think that Nats have been slightly more consistent (not just in results, but in play) this season -- for better or worse. I think both teams make the postseason (barring injuries) regardless.
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