You should.
I mean about the NL East. The Mets continue to break down like a rickety jalopy as they go through the season. A completely healthy Mets team is competition. This Mets team is lucky to be hanging on. True they could win the next 3 (including games vs Strasburg and Scherzer) and feel a little better but honestly I don't see that happening. I'm more interested now in the possibility that the Nats sweep, put the Nats 12.5 out, likely hold a 12 game lead over the Marlins and we can all put the NL East to bed and focus on enjoying the last month of ASG baseball before we get consumed in trade talk.
Also praying no one gets hurt in this long stretch of games. There's that too.
What about Gio? Well if you like Gio - he's sporting his best ERA since his first year here and is 6-1. Also if you like Gio stop reading.
It's pretty much a sham. Last night was a legit good game but overall it's not pretty. His strike-outs keep dropping, his walks keep going up, his homers are now a problem. He's being saved by a ahistorical for him low BABIP rate and one of the best LOB% in the game. So maybe he's become a pitcher that can bear down, fool guys when needed into hitting the ball exactly as he wants to. Or maybe he's just been lucky. Given everything else looks worse, I'm leaning toward lucky.
Sweep now so all of us can focus at yelling at the Lerners to spend money to help the bullpen.
22 comments:
Luck?
Gio should be at least 9-1.
He should have won the April 6 game against the Marlins where he went 7 and gave up ZERO runs. Kelly, Solis and Blanton put their heads together and give up 4 to lose 4-3.
He should have won the first double header game on May 14 against the Phillies, where he went 6.2 and gave up 1 run. Kelly blows it and gives up 3. Nats lose 4-3.
He should have won the June 10 Rangers game where he went 6 and gave up THREE hits and 1 run. Glover and Kelly combine to serve up 5 runs and Nats lose 6-3.
No, luck isn't a word I would use here.
Froggy
I like Gio.
I didn't stop reading.
Damn you, Harper. Damn you.
In a sense Gio is unlucky in that he should have a better W-L record than he does because the bullpen has blown several games for him.
He's also lucky in that he's given up many many fewer hits and runs than he should have based on how he's pitched. A BABIP 30 points below career norms and a LOB % 15% above career norms portends bad things.
The "lucky" category is far far far more important than the unlucky category in terms of predicting how Gio is likely to pitch in the future.
Compared to Gio the head case from previous years who would take 90 pitches to get out of 3 innings with the Gio of this year, no comparison. I like this Gio much better...now, Joe Ross and the Tanner Roark of late...
Well, I thought Gio was a slow pitcher (and he is). But Joe Ross, who used to work quickly, was SO SLOW in his last outing that I just couldn't watch the game. Baseball needs a pitch clock. It's great when Max is out there: get ball, pitch ball, get ball, pitch ball.
Look, I like Gio and he's a good guy to have as your 4th or 5th best starter at this point in his career.
I promise you that if the bloops start falling in instead of turning into outs and/or the line drives are hit in gaps instead of right at fielders, the Gio "head case from previous years who would take 90 pitches to get out of 3 innings" is coming back.
You like "this Gio" much better because his results have been better. His process - Ks down, BBs up - has not been. His results are going to get worse and you're going to like him less.
By Fangraphs, Max has a slower pace than Ross (but just barely) and Gio (who has the fastest pace of any starter on the team). Roark is the second fastest, and Stras is the slowest: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=30&type=15&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=24&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d
@PotomacFan - There's also often a lot of stomping around the mound between "pitch ball" and "get ball." Your pitch clock idea is heresy, though.
Edwin Jackson??
The Nats are officially desperate.
I have no problem with signing Jackson. He seems like the perfect kind of pitcher to convert to middle relief. O's already tried it earlier this year and he performed well in the minors, and his performance in the majors, while objectively ugly, was on par with the rest of our bullpen...
Heh. I remember that guy.
Jackson would be a great conversion to relief possibility, but I doubt that his agent (Boras) is going to go for that.
He isn't a Boras client. He is a Legacy Agency client as per MLBTR
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/06/nationals-sign-edwin-jackson.html?fv-home=true&post-id=94963
@Harper: I feel better about Bryce. Thoroughly comforted that he's not experiencing anything resembling last year. A 118 mph homer indicates you're healthy.
@Anon. I don't think Harper was discussing whether Gio should have a better Win-Loss record. W-L is mostly garbage. But his run prevention has indeed been lucky.
So, Shawn Kelley has a sore neck. Maybe from twisting his neck to watch those 9 home runs (in 18 innings) fly out of the park.
Given that Jackson's already been pitching relief for the Orioles this year (and, unfortunately, failing at it), I don't think player/agent willingness to try the job is a problem. Player ability, on the other hand...His probable best use is to eat innings at AAA while Turner and Cole pitch long relief in the bigs.
Mets series felt good, though. It's nice to go 3-1 against one's chief rivals in their park and only lose the game that had their ace against our #5.
Yesterday's game, while not good, made me happy, because Ross was not great or awful, for maybe the first time this season. Per Dusty and Federal Baseball, he threw about a dozen mostly good changeups, which can only be a good sign.
2 outs bottom of the 9th bases loaded, power hitter Ozuna against power fastball pitcher Romero = Cespedes 2.0 walkoff
uh boy...
If Roark can't find it at some point, that is really problematic. I'm glad they have a large lead to figure all of this out, but they're a bit of a mess. Plus, where is Maddux in all of this??
Daniel Murphy didn't help things at all by muffing what should have been the third out in the bottom of the ninth. Two batters later Ozuna delivered the coup de grace. I'm starting to seriously wonder how Mike Maddux can so dramatically turn around the two biggest head cases on the team (Gio and Stras) and at the same time fail miserably at whatever magic he's been renowned to possess when it comes to the bullpen....although last night for the second straight start most of the onus is on Tanner. Still, the pen had a late lead they once again failed to hold.
Gio gets to have his win go poof tonight--for the sixth time.
@Sammy
Maddux readily admitted to doing squat with Stras. Stras has this newfound confidence by working out of the stretch, something he came up with doing all his own over the offseason. As for Gio, we've analyzed before that he's just been really really lucky this season. So I don't think you can argue Maddux is turning around these head cases...I think he's just not that great a coach. Case and point: Felipe Rivero and (this season) Enny Romero
Gio has kept his composure in difficult, high-stress situations a bazillion times better than ever this season. It's the biggest reason he's performing better than he ever has as a Nat. I don't buy at all that he's been merely lucky. Luck is the residue of design. Instead of losing his cool and panicking when he gets in a jam, Gio is making the pitches he needs to make at the time he needs to make them.
That said, I am beginning to question whether Maddux is as I said all he's renowned to be. In years past the bullpen has made me nervous, but it honestly has never been this blatantly awful.
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