Here's the Washington Post story
In a vacuum it's a pretty innocuous hire. Dave Martinez has been a well regarded coach in line for a managerial job for a while now. He seems to fit into the "I'm ok with analytics" mold that has been the expectation for a decade now. He seems to fit into "Oh yeah, we have all these Spanish speaking players it would help if he was bi-lingual" mold that is becoming more in vogue. The Nationals, in general, have hired several managers that have led the Nationals to the playoffs. The contract, at least in initial reports, seems like industry standard.
See you next season?
Well this decision was not made in a vacuum. The points of interest include the fact that yes they've hired managers that have been successful - all within the past 6 seasons - which brings up longevity questions. Yes, they've paid a normal contract - this time - after years of offering less money to arguably better candidates. This brings up the question of "why now?" Presumably it's because Dave Martinez felt he could wait out for a better contract than the at best 2 years the Nats usually offer. Bud Black felt this way and walked away and did get a better offer. Dusty couldn't wait. The Nats had to up their ante to get this guy if they wanted him.
But the big lingering question is how does Dave Martinez guarantee the playoff success the Nats claim was the reason they fired Dusty? The fact is - obviously - he doesn't. Martinez is an unknown and can't guarantee playoff success anymore than a naysayer can say he'll definitely fail.
But this is ok. The Nats wanting to win in the playoffs doesn't have to be just a manager switch. It can be a more complete attempt to build the best possible team to start the season and to react accordingly during the trade deadline. Which each successive season the Nats have done more and more of this. Last season you really only entered the year with a back of the bullpen question, and you really only exited the trade deadline timeframe with a starting catcher issue* Of course both of those things ended up wreaking havoc on the Nationals this year so that should lead you to believe - don't do that! Don't leave holes if you don't have to.
What does that mean? Off the top of my head - get a catcher, get a closer, add another starter for depth (doesn't have to be top of rotation or expensive), bring back Lind. That's my minimum. Do that in the off-season and now I'm looking at a franchise that is committing to putting the best team on the field. Maybe they don't have a "playoff winner"** in the dugout but I'd take this over the alternative of having brought a Girardi in and then just rolling with the guys they have on contract now.
*Assuming they had good reason to believe Strasburg would be back fine. And he was so we'll assume that they did. The Bryce injury would create a new problem but after the trade deadline which makes it harder to account for.
**Is Girardi good enough to guarantee a playoff win? Of course not. But he has proven himself to be not a playoff detriment (his teams are about .500 in the playoffs which is on expectation) Dave Martinez has not proven anything - so Girardi is the hire here but there's no guarantee he would come. Farrell with two straight DS losses is hard to see as much better than Dusty even with a WS in hand.
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18 comments:
I'm ok with the move. I do wonder if Girardi wouldn't have been the better hire. Girardi was let go in NY supposedly bc he doesn't connect well with players. He sounds a little like a smarter and more successful Matt Williams, who could not connect with anyone but Bryce. Who knows?
I'm good with the move. I wanted the Nats to hire Martinez the last time. If nothing else, we will have much more interesting line-ups and in-game decisions to second guess.
What's wrong with Doolittle as the closer, with Madson as the backup? Maybe you need another similar arm, but even Kenley Jansen isn't automatic, as we've seen. I'm more for bullpen DEPTH, and a good SP. Trade a guy that hurts to get Realmuto. Maybe even Soto.
Piggybacking on BX's excellent comments re Werth from the last post... I think Werth's departure makes the managerial situation much better right away. The fact that not playing Werth in the NLDS would have been some sort of clubhouse problem says all we need to know about him. Here's hoping Dave Martinez can get a team-first, whatever-it-takes groove going.
Very curious to see what the rest of his staff will look like, esp with Maddux gone. I wonder who is in his circle of trust...
Big jump into the unknown with Martinez, but it seems like he or Cora had to be their targets.
blovy8 - if you can get a lights out middle relief guy and keep Doolittle the closer I'm ok with that.
Harper, do you think Betances can be had from the Yankees? How much would it take to get him?
I'm with blovy, SP and C are the priorities now that the managerial issue is settled. Winter meetings can't come fast enough
Rizzo - " someone who is progressive, someone who can connect with and communicate well with our players, and someone who embraces the analytical side of the game."
I think this explains it really. In no way does progressive or analytical describe Dusty.
Get a catcher and SP and keep the studs healthy and we have one more shot before it falls apart. Or pick your horses and shoot for a quick rebuild around them. I'm guessing Rizzo is now shooting for option A so he can go out on top as he looks for his next gig.
Success. IMO hiring somebody like Martinez over Dusty makes way more sense than dismissing Dusty and hiring a Farrell or Girardi. I get that some will disagree with that. But to me it’s the type of manager you want, not who has more playoff wins. That’s more of a rational basis to make a change.
Question for the group: if you could get Stanton (by assuming his contract) and swapping Gio for Realmuto but the fish eat Realmuto's contract and assume Gio's do you do it?
FROGGY - Yes but only if you know you will not sign Bryce.
@Anonymous good thoughts. Harper, it seems like Betances is on his way out. Should the Nats try to trade for him?
I think it would be a forcing function to pressure Boras to do something. Personally I think Bryce is already thinking of wearing pinstripes and $400mm. So unless the Lerner's say we want him to be THE face of the franchise and retire in DC, then you cover your bets with Stanton while he is available.
Froggy. Yes I think you have to do that. But Fish would never do it. They want to use pieces like Stanton and Realmuto to restock the system, not JUST clear salary.
I’m not totally convinced the Yankees would think it’s worth it anymore to spend that much on Bryce, given developments with Judge. They’re going to be swimming in premium power including from the outfield (with Judge and Frazier) CHEAPLY for years. Might they want to save their embarrassingly huge $contracts for Machado and pitching? (Once gleyber Torres comes up I assume Didi will be heading to 2B and they’ll deal Castro...they’ll still need a 3B). Granted they still will be in on Bryce big time. I just can see Judge’s emergence holding down the bidding from NYY a bit. I would be more worried about Phillies and LAD to be blunt.
I agree with Bx - it's easy to think "Yankees" with big free agents, but they might not be buyers in RF. I think Bryce could be drawn west to a place like Chicago, or... I don't know how a team like Arizona spends, but post 2018 (with JD Martinez walking), the D-backs could be looking to back a dump truck full of money up to Bryce's house.
I like the Martinez hiring, mainly because it is forward-thinking and not a one-and-done. I trust Rizzo to get the best of both worlds most of the time, and while I think that this hire does just that. It also gives the Boras-Harper brain trust one more thing to think about for FA negotiations. If they click, and Martinez leads them deeper into the playoffs than before (or even into the WS!), that's one more thing in DC's favor. I hear Harper likes DC living, and not so much big city NY. It may be a small thing, until it becomes more important now that Harper is married (with children to soon follow?). Maybe thy don't click, but odds are that other mainstays like Rendon as well asthe up-and-coming Nats like Robles, Soto, et al, will click with him and look up to him and that bodes well for a 4 or 5 year future.
Also, @Froggy - yes, please yes, I would do that deal for Stanton and Realmuto, even giving up Soto (but not Robles). Hell, I'd do it maybe even for Yelich and Realmuto!
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