But does that even matter- having these two pitchers having great years on the mound? This series it hasn't. But we'll get back to that.
Last night we saw Dusty* make his first really bad strategical move. It was NOT, repeat, it was NOT taking out Max. Taking out Max at that point was a 50/50 call. He was tiring. The previous inning he gave up a very hard and deep lineout to Jon Jay and followed it with a 5 pitch walk to Bryant. Some say he was squeezed on the walk, but the calls were all technically correct (according to the Gameday app) and what it appeared to me was that Max was just a little off where he wanted to be. That is fine when he's aiming for a corner and misses a few inches outside or low. It's not fine once he aims for the edge and the ball trails into the zone a few inches.
Presented with an extremely similar situation last year, Dusty chose to keep Max in and Joc Pederson would take him deep to tie Game 5. This year he chose what I would recommend, batter by batter usage until he lets a man on. I like this because sometimes a pitcher's effectiveness is not just because of the sharpness or speed of his stuff but because of his feel that day or how he is reading the opponent. As well, there is likely a psychological advantage where the line-up feels like they cannot hit an opposing pitcher and creates a tension that works against the batter. As long as that tension remains, as long as it appears that the feel/reading can overcome any physical slippage, why not keep him in?
That is what Dusty did and after Contreras was stuck out Ben Zobrist crushed a ball into the outfield. It not only broke up the no-no - it was the second high speed 300+ ft shot over the last two innings. It was time for Max to go. With Schwarber up next you can't take the chance of the same type of mistake now because he won't hit a 300ft line drive with it, he'll hit a 400 ft home run. But who to put in? Schwarber is a lefty and has definitive splits, which is another reason to remove Scherzer, and it figures to put in a lefty. Thing is the Nats don't have a shut them down LOOGY. You can't use Enny. He's never in his career been able to get out lefties despite being one. Perez was a LOOGY but then couldn't get the job done in 2016. He's been better this year though not dominant. About the same this year has been Solis, who was also good last year. Finally there was Doolittle. He's been good against lefties in the past two years but in very limited at bats with the Nats lefties have 6 hits in 18 ABs.
At the time I thought they should go to Kintzler. Historically Kintzler has been very effective against lefties, more so than righties in fact. Kintzler is also probably your best bet to keep the ball in the park, important against a bat like Schwarber. It would be counter-intuitive though and it wouldn't take advantage of Schwarber's splits. You could also walk Schwarber to get to Heyward - but you'd want a lefty to face Heyward who is a bad hitter either way but worse against lefties.
Of course you have to also factor in what the opponent will do and if you bring in a lefty to face Schwarber they are likely to counter with a righty bat, probably Almora. You likely aren't going to get the LvL or RvR match-up you want at first. So the question is - what is the match-up you want? If I were to rank them I'd say
Kintzler vs Schwarber - Kintzler does well vs lefties and doesn't give up the homers.
Doolittle vs Almora - Not ideal but Doolittle is one of the guys you brought in for this and you can pitch around Almora if need be, to get to the more favorable Heyward match-up (although he may pinch hit for him too with Happ)
Solis vs Almora - not great, when he's been hit by RHP he's been hit hard but like Doolittle you could try to pitch around Almora to get to Heyward. Though same PH rules apply.
Scherzer vs Schwarber - no, the HR chances too high, imo
Madson vs Schwarber - I haven't liked what I've seen from Madson this post-season.
Dusty went with Solis, didn't have him pitch around Almora and Almora punished him, knocking in the tying run. Letting Solis pitch to Heyward was the right move after that but Solis couldn't put Heyward away either meaning Kintzler would have to pitch across innings.
This was the game changing because of a bad move by Dusty. There's no denying it. This late in the game you have to turn to your best pitchers and Solis is not one of those guys. Even if you try to say the two most important goals were avoiding Schwarber's bat and saving Doolittle, you still don't let Solis take on Almora. He should have been pitched around or just intentionally walked. Setting up Solis vs Heyward or Kintzler vs Happ.
In the 8th Kintzler, who issued one walk in the past month, did the inexcusable and walked the leadoff batter. He still got out Jay (who was fine for Kintzler to face bc he'd be bunting) and Bryant. That set up Rizzo. As I noted before Kintzler is good versus lefties. I'll add that Rizzo's splits are basically very good vs lefties and great vs righties so there is an advantage but you aren't going to shut Rizzo down here by bringing in Doolittle. Kintzler was as good a choice as any to face Rizzo. But Dusty went to Perez. That's fine too - see everything we talked about above. They aren't pinch hitting for Rizzo so you aren't going to get to Perez vs a RHB.
Now should you face Rizzo? I wouldn't, not with a base open. I'd rather take my chances with Contreras. Again there aren't great splits here. He hits righties fine but if my choice is Rizzo vs LHP or Contreras vs RHP I take Contreras. Dusty chose to face Rizzo, which wasn't the garbage choice everyone thinks, but was probably not the best choice and Rizzo just blooped one into the OF. Rizzo then acts like an ass acting like he did something other than get lucky but you get to do that when you win. Don't want to see that? Don't lose.
So that was that. Dusty made three decisions but only one was an outright mistake at the time. You can pull Scherzer. He was probably lambasted by the same people last year for keeping him in. You can pitch to Rizzo. I wouldn't but you can. You can't go with Solis.
But the above is just a bunch of paragraphs talking about the positioning of the china in the shop and ignoring the bull you let in. The problem is not that the Nats pen and Dusty's choices have allowed them to score a couple runs late in the game. The problem is that all it takes is a couple runs to win these games. The problem is Trea Turner is pressing so hard that he can't get on base at all. The problem is that the one guy that seems to be hitting as he would during the season is batting 8th. The problem is Wieters or some other terrible hitting catcher has to play. The problem is Daniel Murphy is doing nothing. The problem is outside of one swing apiece so are Bryce and Rendon. The problem is Werth is old and hurt.
What can you do about that? Very little. Do you pull Werth, the emotional leader of the team in a win or go home game? I don't know that you can. But if you don't Lind, who kills righties, is wasting away on the bench (Zimm hasn't been great either but he's basically been the best of the worst, so you can't replace him). Can you switch MAT with Turner in the lineup? Maybe you can but then again maybe Taylor is having the success he is because of how he's being pitched with a pitcher behind him. Nothing guarantees success.
However I do know that we have to see something today. We have to see some line-up change. Three times Dusty's put out this line-up and it hasn't worked. He has to change something.
Other notes :
Does a better LF get to Zobrist's fly ball? I looked at it and my guess is... maybe. That's a ball that is caught a step in front of the wall and is coming in fast. A better LF may get there but you are almost certainly looking at a jump and crash into the wall situation. Do I think some come down with it? Sure. Do I think some miss it? Yes. Do I think some catch it for a moment only to have it jarred loose by impact? Yeah, probably that too.
Does a better LF get to Rizzo's bloop? I think so. If you watch the replay Werth pulls up about when we first see him. This is fair. Taylor is about same distance and in a full sprint and Turner is closer. Werth isn't going to catch this ball. But a faster LF would be closer to the ball at that point and probably is able to get to it on the fly on a full sprint. Of course Werth is Werth and we all know that and so do the guys in the field so it's hard to blame Werth here for just being him. Especially when (1) Taylor could have reached it . I don't know if he would have caught it. It's a full sprint slide/dive combo but it deserves a try (2) Turner really could have gotten there but he totally misreads it taking a path almost straight out from short. It's a hard play but one he didn't even put himself in position for.
WIN GODDAMMIT WIN
*Is Dusty not the oddest manager in terms of public opinion we've seen in a long while? Some people, re: the Washington sports media, absolutely love him and seem to turn everything he says into wisdom handed down from the mount. In interviews and articles he's the coolest, smartest guy to ever put out a line-up. On the other hand, some how the 2003 series loss to the Marlins while managing the Cubs turned a whole legion of fans against him. I will accept the Cubs fan hate because fans aren't rational. But how did random people not associated with the Cubs come to think so poorly of Dusty? The truth is Dusty is a winner. The regular season numbers back that up. Can he manage a strategic playoff game? Eh - I mean he's not a savant but from what I see he's does as well as average manager in the playoffs. But soulless automatons are soulless automatons.
36 comments:
I've lurked the comments section of various Nats blogs for a long time, but at this point I've got to throw in my two cents (on two separate blogs, at once!). A couple of things:
1. Despite what I'm about to say, last night (and, frankly, the rest of the series) can be placed squarely at the feet of the offense, not the pitching or Dusty or Rizzo etc. If Kyle Schwarber (nobody in professional sports makes me feel more like an Olympic athlete than him) doesn't boot a ball that hits him in the glove, we don't score in 2/3 games in this series. Unless Dusty can press the right buttons for infinite scoreless innings by our pitching staff, it's tough to win scoring at that rate.
2. For the most part, I can't fault Dusty for the decisions he made in the context in which he made them. Harper does a great job in the post outlining the moves, and why some were more or less optimal. Maybe I'd have gone another way for some, but they were coin flips and he had several in a row come up tails (I'm thinking the Solis/Almora vs. Schwarber/Knitzler decision, pitching to Rizzo, etc.). FWIW, I was ordering Dusty/Solis through my TV to issue the ol' unintentional-intentional and let us get to Heyward, but you also don't want to bounce one Wieters can't block either and put the sac fly in order, so maybe it was just poor execution? Who knows.
3. All that being said, I think that there is a GLARING error in Dusty's decision-making, and that was allowing Max to hit for himself in the top of the 7th. I know why he did it - Max is a "gamer" or a "warhorse" or whatever exciting imagery you want to conjure. But it seems to me that Dusty got bullied by his own player. Max gets pissed off when he gets pulled when he doesn't believe he should, and Dusty refused to do it. Unfortunately, it's Dusty's job to be the adult in the room and not let the inmates run the asylum.
Here, as far as a I can tell, are all of the reasons to let Max take that AB in T7: A. Max wants to, B. you get no-hitter-stuff Max to continue pitching at ~90 pitches. That's good! He'd been great all game (though things had started to look a little shaky there in the bottom of the 6th).
However, here are the reasons to yank him for Lind (or any other professional baseball hitter): A. if you don't pull him, you're wasting an AB at a time when your offense desperately needs every productive plate appearance you can squeeze out of them. Maybe Lind hits a PH bomb (as he's done this year) to add an insurance run? Who knows! B. It is physically impossible for Max to finish this no-hitter. You don't have to play for the historical accomplishment here, because Max said before the game that he could only go 100 pitches. Again, I'm sure he told Dusty that he was good to go longer in the heat of the moment, but of course he's going to say that. Dusty needs to tell him no. C. As I mentioned, Max had started to look a little wobbly in the bottom of the 6th (ball crushed that MAT managed to track down, followed by an immediate walk and a DP ball that would've been a hit without the shift). That, combined with the fact that he's had a recent injury, should be enough to worry that a potential performance letdown was incoming and tilt the scales towards pinch hitting. D. You traded away some (valuable?) prospects midseason to get three bullpen guys, and then used them in the exact roles that this situation would dictate for the rest of the season. This isn't the May bullpen, where you have to squeeze every possible out from your starter because your pen is guaranteed to hemorrhage runs. On a per-inning basis, these dudes are very good pitchers. Use them.
ctd.
2/2
That was the mistake in the game. That's where things went down hill, imo, and that's where I'd go back and fix history. Well before Zobrist's hit and Rizzo demanded respect for his popup (which was suuuuper impressive and definitely placed there on purpose. R-E-S-P-E-C-T, buddy.). Phew. That was cathartic.
Problem is, I don't really have any answers for next game. What is Dusty supposed to say to the team? "Try harder to get hits, guys!" And as has been overly discussed (@Grant Paulsen) all season, lineup construction is barely relevant even over 162 games, much less one. So.... I guess let's just hope that the Nats can make some good contact, some hits fall, and we can get it back to DC for another stroke-inducing Game 5 letdown!
I think you have to start Lind for Werth in LF. I would also move Taylor to leadoff, and tell him to call I GOT IT for pretty much every fly ball in left field unless Lind is standing under it. Gotta take pressure off Trea. Besides, hitting 8th puts him behind Wieters, so Trea will be unlikely to have anyone on base in front of him.
...Honestly, I'm not even mad about Dusty's mishandling of the bullpen because thus far the offense has shown up for one inning out of 27 through three games. I mean, Werth reached base twice yesterday and that put him tied for second-best OBP for the series among the regulars. The Cubs' starters are good, but they're not Max-and-Stras good, and we got good games from both Max and Strasburg and lost them anyway because the best offense in the NL couldn't score runs.
I mean, what are you going to do? Harper, Murphy, Rendon, and Zimmerman have to hit. Turner needs to do something productive. Taylor actually is hitting like the not-half-bad 2017 version of himself. You could replace Werth with Kendrick, but as noted, Werth is actually trying and it's not like Kendrick was great shakes down the stretch. And the catchers have hit like hot garbage all year except for Wieters in April, so it's not like you can suddenly be mad that they can't hit now.
There are no magic fixes. There are no huge errors to point at. Either the offense scores some runs and we win, or they don't and we're left wondering why so many good players didn't play well in the small sample size of an LDS and human pattern recognition starts searching for deep significance.
We put a better team, on paper, on the field than the Cubs. Better hitters, better starters, better relievers. Only the defense is genuinely, flatly, worse (and ironically, it was the Cubs making four errors yesterday and us getting nothing out of it), but over three games, the Cubs have played better. That's really all there is to it.
GTA - Welcome - I think Dusty wanted Max to go as long as he could maybe even past 7 if 7 was easy, so hitting him in top with no-one on and 2-outs was an easy call for him. It's why I hoped Nats would get a hit before that to force Dusty's hand. I liked Max pitching further but it was always going to be a touch and go decision that could go literally one batter.
I don't know what Dusty says to the team, but I would say something like "Go out ANGRY. Angry with yourself. Angry with me. Angry at them. Angry at the world. Don't care what you are angry out. But go out angry" You need to get them amped up a bit in a way that won't come down after 2 innings of not scoring.
JE34 - those are the two things I would do but I bet Dusty only flips Turner and MAT.
Dezo - no argument. The Nats haven't lost any games they didn't deserve to.
Just throwing this out there to start: I'm not going to be an apologist for the boneheaded mistake of pitching to Rizzo. He's accounted for 5 of the Cubs 8 RBIs I believe? With first base open and 2 outs in a tied playoff game, there's absolutely no reason on God's green earth to pitch to him. You don't even have to throw 4 balls anymore. And while yes Perez basically beat him and Rizzo got lucky, you shouldn't even be giving him the chance.
But I digress. The big issue with this team, we can all agree, is the lack of offense. For all the talk about launch angle, I'd really like to understand what happened yesterday. The only person putting any sort of lift into their swing was Bryce, but he of course was swinging at cutters a foot inside. Quintana had what, 4 GBs hit right at him? He isn't some GB guru, dude's 34th in GB% among qualified pitchers. The Nats aren't trying to drive the ball at all, they're all just flailing for contact (some worse than others *cough* Turner)
Now it's just time to get hits off Arrieta. Hopefully his hammie hurts his performance way worse than Max
I agree with the bullpen usage, and that it's made moot by virtue of a DOA offense.
However, when the Nats went up 1-0, I think Dusty should have taken the football approach of killing the clock. "We are going to win this game one to nothing" is what I would have declared.
That means sub in the best defensive team immediately. Difo at second, Robles in left, Goodwin in right. Maybe a better LF doesn't catch the Zobrist hit, but a better LF holds him to a single, or makes that out at second. Jayson came close to throwing him out.
Harper:
Watching the replay of rizzo's blooper 3-4 times, I don't see how Taylor had any shot at it. Even if he had laid out for it, he would've come up short.
As you said, a super fast LF maybe gets there or a maybe a super fast SS who gets a good read. It was just one of those things. Super bad luck.
Do you think someone can teach Kendrick to play catcher by 5:30? That would remove Wieters's useless bat and put Howie in the game without damaging Werth's delicate ego. I mean, it can't be that hard, right?
To have not one, but TWO games in this series where the offense is doing basically nothing and Adam Lind, probably the best left-handed hitter off the bench in all of baseball this year with 14 home runs in 301 plate appearance, doesn't get even ONE plate appearance?
Absolutely inexcusable. A fucking travesty. Especially when the ONE time you have put him in so far he came through like he has time and time again this year. It makes me sick.
I think this is a fairly accurate assessment of what happened, the decisions Dusty made definitely weren't right but they weren't quite wrong, exactly. I understand pulling Max when he did, I was for it. I can't say I understand the moves to Solis or Perez, though. Especially not when you go out and get guys specifically to be used in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings and then don't use them. Kinzler should have come in for the 7th; you can walk Schwarber if you want or hell just face him, he has power but he's a dreadful hitter and Kinzler doesn't give up dingers. Kinzler/Almora and Kinzler/Heyward has to go the Nats' way more often than not.
It's true that Madson hasn't looked great in the playoffs so far, but is he your 8th inning guy or not? Perez/Rizzo takes advantage of the splits but there's a base open, and you're still talking about Oliver Perez in a high-pressure AB against WORLD SERIES CHAMPION ANTHONY RIZZO. I'll take a guy with playoff experience there, handedness be damned. And again, there was a base open.
I want to say that Trey maybe found a little something last night? He stung that foul ball pretty good, and his last contact would have been a hit on any other day were Zobrist not bizarrely shading him to the right side.
The problem the Nats are running into is that in some ways, they were a better team with certain people on the DL. Wrist injuries are really tough to come back from quickly and I don't believe Turner is back based on his swings and power numbers. Also, Werth is basically the Nats 5th or 6th best Outfielder at this point, possibly even 7th or 8th. That's not to meant to be mean, but just based on this year's numbers, he's the Nats worst OFer.
Finally, the Nats basically have a poor pitch-framing catcher who hits like a pitcher. Toss in a RFer whose timing isn't back yet and an injured/sick second basemen and if Taylor, Rendon and Zim aren't on fire, it's going to be tough to score runs, which means that Dusty Baker's "treat it like it's a regular season game" approach is going to cost them.
Great take...couldn't have written it any better.
Btw...I'm New to this blog after having been unceremoniously banned by Mark Z. and Byron K. on the MASN site.
They never gave me a reason or warning...but my last quote read "Solis makes me SICK...get his @$$ outta there."
Hope you guys don't find that kinda feedback offensive.
-G
sirc - Usually I'd be against the idea of trying to run out the clock as you say (you can't be sure you won't need another run) but let's be honest. How much worse could the offense get?
ying yang - if you ask me to bet I don't think he catches it but I think he should have tried. He's the CF - he's gotta direct them if it's not obvious and take it if he doesn't direct them
Robot - I'll ask Washington about this. Wash? "It's incredibly hard"
Anon - he should come in for Trea in 8th but Dusty can't pull the trigger on it
el chup - eh about Trea. I mean if guys ind something with late game ABs Bryce should have killed it yesterday - granted LHP but still I think one errant AB means nothing.
Anon - yes at this point it's clear he's treating the Nats like a team that they are not. You can give it a game or two to see - with the long break but now that's it. Anything beyond today demands doing SOMETHING.
1) IMHO, the inestimably fine Harper runs the most knowledgeable and intense Nats blog on planet Earth (with apologies to any theoretically superb Martian weblog where gloomy green people may be posting brilliant doomsday diatribes on the Nats' game three foibles).
2) again regarding Harper, thanks for the typically meticulous analysis of Dusty's choices.
3) GTA, you say you don't usually post? Come on, you lazy bum, you need to be posting cause that was a good one.
4) I so hate to root for a rainout (which particularly infuriates my wife when she's looking forward to a game) and I do love Tanner, but having Stras in G4 would be something of a security blanket, and I admit the closet monsters are troubling my sleep.
5) Blessings to all and victory to the curly guys!
Trea still leading off... and now Werth batting 2nd? More ABs? ARRRGGGHHH
What Dusty is supposed to say to the team.
It looks like a rainout is a serious possibility.
Hopefully it means Stras starts tomorrow, and more importantly, Dusty can re-examine the interesting line up he has
Werth batting 2nd. Good ol' Dusty.
@Sammy - Unfortunately, rainout isn't likely. The weather is basically the same that they had in Boston yesterday. It'll be wet, but it won't force a rainout. Definitely doesn't work to DC's advantage...the Nats clearly can't capitalize on errors as we saw yesterday
Let's get Bryce's dad to deliver his old catcher's gear to Wrigley by gametime. Then teach Victor Robles to drag-bunt right quick.
I guess Dusty won't sit Werth in what could be his last MLB game.
@fries
It is projected to rain 2-3 inches in chicago this afternoon.
It rained .2 inches in boston yesterday.
I don't see it happening
(sources: https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/917822574393950208, http://www.bwsc.org/COMMUNITY/rainfall/telog_rainfall/rf_daily.asp)
A rain out is possible. I encouraged the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang to prepare and post a weather forecast for the game -- and they quickly followed up with a forecast. Kudos to CWG. Here is the forecast:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/10/10/how-the-weather-could-save-the-nationals-season/?nid&utm_term=.7bab051181d7
Werth had a hit and a walk during yesterday's game...was the most productive player in the line-up (which is sad to say).
I like J-Dub, but have been calling for Lind or Kendrick to replace him at LF.
Dusty did move Werth up to #2, where he has been most effective during the regular season.
It's do or die...
Let's live to fight another day!
The again, if Max lays down that sac bunt in the third inning, MAT scores on the Harper error.
But if things were different, they wouldn't be the same, would they?
(On a completely different subject--and when the time is appropriate--I'd like to take a run at Wieters's "poor framing" reputation.)
The question isnt if it gets rained out today, it's if they start the game or not.
Playoff games are played to completion so if they start and it rains like it is supposed to (pretty heavy in the evening) it's likely to be suspended and restarted. No one wants that so look for them to not start if the rain starts before the game is supposed to.
Permit me a dumb question... if the game is rained out, what is the advantage of starting Strasburg in game 4. Presumably, somebody not named Strasburg or Scherzer will have to pitch one of the remaining games in the series, so does it matter whether Strasburg pitches game 4 or game 5? Worse case scenario, Nats lose in 4 instead of 5. Is it because Gio is perceived to be that much better than Roark?
Because youd rather lose in 5, than in 4, Goober. Live for another day...
Gio is better than Roark. Gio can be painful to watch, but he had a terrific year, and he did just fine in Game 2. And Thursday (Game 5, if we get there) will be Max's bullpen day, so don't be surprised if he pitches one or two innings.
Dusty said he's still starting Roark tomorrow. Quite possibly the dumbest decision he could make. If he sticks with it and isn't bluffing, no chance he gets that contract extension if they don't come through with a win tomorrow
^ this ^
Love Tanner... but Dusty, you're crazy. I hope I'm wrong.
Supposedly Strasburg is sick and threw a bullpen yesterday, so he can't start tomorrow. Just like that Strasburg goes back to being a hot house flower. I mean they sewed Schilling's tendon to his freaking ankle so he could pitch. I hope they lose tomorrow, bc this is just plain ridiculous. I'm stunned beyond belief.
Here's a story: Dusty, with his team staring at defeat in Game 3, asks the baseball gods "Can my team catch a break?! Anything that will help us get an edge in Game 4, I beg you!" The night passes and Dusty's team prepares for battle. The baseball gods respond: "Mr. Baker, we've heard your wishes and will grant your wish. Seeing as your team is struggling to score runs, and despite it being against our policy of officially giving a certain team runs, we made Kyle Schwarber drop a fly ball because we did indeed feel sorry for your crew Apparently, one run is not enough to satisfy your abysmal team needs. So we've decided to rain cats and dogs on the city of Chicago to allow for your best pitcher to play in Game 4, giving your crew the best chance at a shutout (you'll need it). What say you Mr. Baker?" Dusty incredulously looks toward he sky and says "No thanks." The Nationals went on to lose and Dusty is still wondering why the baseball gods refused to answer a prayer. The baseball gods shake their head muttering, "some fools never learn."
The End.
@Ole PBN: Well done, sir!
If Dusty starts Tanner over Stras tomorrow, he should be looking for a new job on Thursday, win or lose, I don't care. No justification for a decision like that.
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