Nationals Baseball: Wild Card and playoff picks from other places

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Wild Card and playoff picks from other places

Before I get to the WC games som prediction aggregation

SI : 9 pickers
WS  WIN : 1

ESPN : 30 pickers
WS  WIN : 4

USA Today : 6 pickers
WS  WIN : 0

Washington Post : 4 pickers
WS  WIN : 0

CBS Sports, NBC Sports.  Didn't see any. Get your act together
Yahoo Sports : Only did WC games so far. How utterly reasonable. How are these takes hot?!?
 So combined so far

49 pickers
NLCS WIN :  16
WS  WIN : 5

CBS Sports : 5 pickers - only NLDS in another completely reasonable and infuriating for this purpose method of picking

NBC Sports : 3 pickers

Yahoo Sports : 4 pickers
WS WIN : 0

This changes the percentages to
NLDS WIN : 43/61 = 70%
NLCS WIN : 25/56 = 45%
WS  WIN :6/56 = 11%

I miscalculated previously and had the Nats NLCS number too low. It was around 43%, not around 33%.

About 70% have the Nats at least beating the Cubs. Almost a third have the Nats in the World Series and about 10% have the Nats winning it all. I'll update if I see any more large groups

Despite mocking them, I am a Yahoo Sports type though. How can I make a DS pick when I don't know the match-ups nor what happens tonight. I'd be silly of me to say "Hey D-Backs are beating the Dodgers" only to have the Rockies win or watch Paul Goldschmidt and JD Martinez collided and break legs. So we'll wait two days for all those.

Tonight I like the Yankees. For those of you new to the blog, or just sporadic readers, here is my... what do you think? Tri-yearly? ...note that I am a Yankee fan. I grew up a Yankee fan and have had no reason to change. Yes, this means Nats v Yanks in World Series I'm not pulling for yours I'm pulling for mine.

Wild Cards are the hardest to judge because it is just one game. All I figure you can do is look who (1) is the better team (2) has the better starter for tonight and (3) has the better bullpen. Maybe look at it now and in the past month

Yankees v Twins
Team : Yankees
Starter : Yankees
Bullpen : Yankees

and in past month?
Team : Yankees (20-9 to 15-14)
Starter : Yankees (Severino 2.10 ERA 0.700 WHIP to Santana 3.31, 1.075)
Bullpen : Yankees (2.74, 1.017 to 3.78, 1.295)

This is all pointing heavily toward the Yankees, but all it's really telling us is that instead of a 55% chance of winning, maybe the Yankees have a 60% chance? 65%? I mean it's still not all that high. But you gotta pick someone.

Diamondbacks v Rockies
Team : Dbacks
Starter : Dbacks (I did check home/away splits to verify Gray wasn't a huge Coors field victim)
Bullpen : Push (Bradley is the single best pitcher but Rockies - Neshek, Dunn, McGee, Estevez are all very good)

and in past month?
Team : Dbacks (17-11 to 15-14)
Starter : Rockies (Gray 2.57, 1.029 WHIP to Grienke 3.90, 1.067)
Bullpen :Dbacks (3.64, 1.213 to 4.39, 1.328). Probably not all that different if I could look at H/A splits

I guess tomorrow I like the Dbacks, but it's not as screaming a pick. Greinke has two iffy starts his last two outings. He only went 4 in each, the first one he got knocked around hard - 3 homers, and the latter one he was better but still way too hittable. Of course the start before these two he went 8 and gave up 2 hits and before that he held the Rockies to 5 hits, with 6 Ks and 2 runs over 7.  But the question mark on "good Greinke or bad Greinke" hangs over this one. I'll say good Greinke, or at least "good enough Greinke" and a good enough pen to just hold it out.


Anonymous said...

Here are my picks: every game and every series is pretty much 50/50. Now, if I had my own TV show, I could use that platform, and my enormous expertise, to explain how and why I made my expert selections. And then I would be wrong. That's why they play the games. The baseball playoffs (mercifully) are not like the first round of the NBA playoffs. They are more like the first round of hockey playoffs. And that's why you want and need to keep going back. (Except the Miami/Florida Marlins, who twice won the World Series, and otherwise have been miserable.)

Ole PBN said...

While I don't think we'll be miserable, I do think our window for excellence is closing. The Royals core is breaking up, but at least they made the most of their opportunities and won a ring. We benefit from poorly-run organizations like the Mets, Marlins, and Phils, but how long will they be pushovers? With the core of players that we have (much of those guys came from the benefit of being the worst team in the MLB from '05-'09), and with our competition struggling to figure out a winning formula, we're not going to be on top of the division forever. Time to get it done... been time to get it done. 4th time's a charm?

Harper said...

PBN - THe honest truth is any team looking more than two years out and seeing definite success is fooling themselves. Too much can change. The Nats will be competitive next year. 2019? That's a bit iffy. But they've been here before - at the end of 2015 only 2016 looked ok and they've pulled out at least three more years.

I guess I'm saying unless you are SURE you aren't going to be competitive it shouldn't effect your current approach.

Ole PBN said...

@ Harper - of course. I suppose what I'm trying to say is when you pick Stras (#1 overall), Bryce (#1 overall), and Rendon (#6 overall) in three consecutive drafts - all of whom have panned out - add those to the marquee FA signings of Werth, Max, and Murphy... it's hard not to get the job done. It takes a certain kind of terrible to be in position to acquire such talent through the draft, and also be able to hit on all of them. The Nats did with those three. It would be a shame to blow this opportunity.

Of course we can't predict the future a few years down the road, but as I recall you were the one who first brought up the Nats "window" getting smaller a couple years ago following another playoff defeat. Whether the window refers to "this group" or not, it'd be tough to swallow if this group can't get it done. And by "get it done"... I'd be happy with a NLCS appearance, nothing less.

Tim Hudson said...

Obviously the Nats have a talented group, there’s no question. They have some great pitching. But come playoff time, talent can take you a long ways, but what do you have between your legs? That’s going to take you real far. And I think the Cubs are a group in that really has some of that.

Bjd1207 said...

Some in depth analysis from Tim Hudson

Tim Hudson said...

Tim Hudson on Nationals-Giants: ‘What do you have between your legs?’

Anonymous said...

Where are you sitting for the playoffs Tim?

Tim Hudson said...

As I'm retired, I'll be watching the playoffs while polishing my World Series rings.

Chas R said...

It seems fitting they play March of the Storm Troopers when the Evil Empire Yankees take the field

Harper said...

Oh no. Tim's mind is going. He thinks he has more than one ring

Jay said...

I think the Cubs are far and away the best team the Nats have ever played in the playoffs. I think that series is a 50-50 coin flip. I am willing to give them benefit of the doubt if they don't make it to the NLCS bc of that. I think last year was also not choking on their part. The Dodgers were a good team. The Nats lost Strasburg and Ramos - a pretty big hit. Also, Joe Ross was hurt. Anyway, I think only the Giants was a true choke and how much of that was Matt Williams was a bad manager. The Cards series was a choke by Clippard and Storen. It hurt, but I don't know that it needs to be franchise defining by any means.

Anyway, we'll see what happens. Does Strasburg pitch in game 4 on short rest? Scherzer has already said he can pitch game 2 and 5 on regular rest. That could be quite the rotation if they do. Strasburg, Scherzer, Gio, Strasburg, Scherzer. I'm not sure they would do that bc they have always been cautious with Strasburg's health. Of course, he may want to do it. He has been really fired up for the playoffs for a while now. Gave up 3 runs in September I read somewhere.

Didn't Tim Hudson start game 7 of the WS for the Giants and pitch a total of 2 innings or something?? Real "gutty" performance.

Tim Hudson said...

You all realize that one doesn't need to make an appearance in the World Series to get a World Series ring?

Dan Uggla has a World Series for his 4 games in the regular season with Giants.

Anonymous said...

You keep good company with Uggla there Timmy. Thanks for making my point.

Tim Hudson said...

From wikipedia:

Before retiring in 2015, Hudson was the winningest active Major League pitcher, as well as one of four active pitchers with at least 200 career wins. With a win against the Oakland A's on July 26, 2015, he has won a game against every team in the majors, the 15th pitcher to do so.[1] Hudson is one of twenty-one pitchers in Major League history to win at least 200 games, strikeout 2,000 batters and have a win-loss percentage above 0.600. Of those twenty-one, fourteen are in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Anonymous said...

And yes, wins are still considered the ultimate stat regarding pitching excellence. Good on Tim.

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