During the game against the Orioles on May 8th, Juan Soto went over .300 (don't pay attention to the game logs - they've moved that Yankee game remember) he hasn't been under since. But he's been a game away serveral times.
One Jul 6th he went 0-6 to drop his average to .310. An 0-3 or worse the next day would have done it. He went 1-2 with a walk
A few days later on Jul 4th he went 0-1 to drop his average to .306. Again an 0-3 would have dropped him to .299. He went 2-4, with a walk.
.305 on July 6th? 2-5 next game
.302 on July 8th? 1-4 to keep head above water, 3-4 next game
.304 on July 11th? 2-5 next game
.301 on July 15th? 1-3 next game, still in danger, 3-4 after that
.302 on July 24th? 1-3 next game, still in danger, 2-3 after that
Now technically he did midgame drop under .300 a couple times. That 1-4 after July 8th? He started 0-2 which dropped him to .298. Same with the game after July 15th game.
But maybe even weirder he has 4 homers in July. When? The game after July 8th, the game after July 15th, the game after July 24th. Last night when still in danger. He's not sneaking back over. He's leaping back. This isn't quite true but it's something like almost every time he's dropped below like .302 his next hit is a homer.
So enjoy this little quirk until it goes away (I'm betting he ends the season under .300). Because at some point from here until the end of the season I'm going to be a killjoy on Soto for some reason. (Hey! Here's me doing it for Giolito. And tempering the expectations for Bryce)
And enjoy these games as much as you can. If there is one thing the Nats have done this year it's beat up on the Marlins (now 7-1 against them). They need to do it again (and probably two more times after this) so sit back, enjoy the likely 2-3 more wins and then get ready to face the stark reality of do or die baseball every series, for a team that didn't give up the ship.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
45 comments:
Interested in solutions at this point, rather than complaining about the duds currently on the field. And yes I'm aware they won 10-3 last night (yay... this is the turning point... yay...)
Echoing others on previous threads, YES we need SP depth. I think that is our priority. Here are some names to target this offseason: Carlos Carrasco, Charlie Morton, Dallas Keuchel, and if we want to rule the universe (and make Bryce say 'wheres my ring' again), go sign Chris Sale. But if I'm being serious, the biggest target in my mind is Patrick Corbin. Love his stuff, lefty arm that will take Gio's spot, and still relatively young (will be 29/30 next season). Make it happen!
Now, this isn't to say our lineup isn't a problem. It is. But I think we have pieces in place to play some good baseball next year given a solid rotation. Eaton, Soto, Robles with MAT off the bench in OF is great. Rendon, Turner, Difo/Kieboom, Adams/Reynolds on the infield. Catcher is the only problem. Need to fix that. I'm on the Buffalo train, not interested in Realmuto at the current asking price, forget it.
I think you need to force Zimm out. Unreliable and is clogging a position where there actually are plenty of power-hitting, high OBP alternatives out there, unlike C. We should not be settling for and oft-injured, crappy 1B that needs 2 platoon mates, just because he's Mr. Nat. Murphy is done, was great while it lasted, I wish him all the best. Bye, Wieters. Bye, Gio. Bye, Tanner. Joe Ross is a luxury that shouldn't be relied on, at most a #5, fine. Go get two arms for the rotation and a catcher that isn't worse than terrible. You have until February. Go. RUN!
@Harper: interesting to read your “dial down the hype on Bryce” post in retrospect. You listed guys who compile WAR of 25 by age 25....that’s pretty close to where Bryce will end up? (He might end up a bit above? Somewhere between 25-30 depending on which WAR you choose).
And then: “Let’s wait until he puts up MVP seasons at age 21 before anointing him.” One year off!
Now: Is Bryce going to be a first ballot hall of famer? Jury is still out. I suspect whatever he does over the rest of his career he will outperform his career WAR equivalent when it comes to HOF voting. But his career could go many different ways. I personally wouldn’t be surprised if he wins another MVP or 2 but also sprinkles some mediocrity throughout and never becomes a crazy consistent player. If I had to bet, Bryce is a Hall of Famer one day. First ballot? Eh. Dunno.
@Harper, what are the odds that Soto will be NL ROY?
That would make for a real nice 2019 Outfield: Robles, ROY Soto, and an Eaton/Taylor platoon.
Han Soto is a joy to watch at the plate. (Still a bit scary in LF though.) Seeing his and Bryce's homers in the finale vs the Brewers provided an interesting contrast in mechanics.
Bryce his his NL-leading 25th homer with his back foot airborne, moving to land towards the first base dugout. He's practically jumping into the swing, and the fall towards first all but eliminates opposite field power. Yes, I realize I'm talking about a homerun he hit, but I do not understand how he hits like this, especially when compared with...
Han Soto. No histrionics, great balance, plane of the swing in the strike zone forever. His laser beam HR last night was another beautiful stroke. He gives opposing pitchers fewer weaknesses to exploit, IMO.
Bryce is falling towards first more regularly now, much more so than in his early days (if youtube is any indication).
I meant to say "plane of the swing in the path of the ball forever" -- no loop at all.
Is Robles in CF plus the prospects you get for Harper better than having Harper in a Pennant Race?
I could watch Soto lay off two-strike pitches outside the zone forever.
GCX - He's probably the favorite as of today. I'd make it him, Acuna, then Brian Anderson who's just chugging along playing pretty well the whole year at 3rd for the Marlins. (The young pitchers aren't dominant enough to get votes without wins and they aren't getting the Ws)
As of July 11, Soto was already the leading candidate for ROY, per David Justice. https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-gleyber-torres-top-latest-roy-polls/c-285193982
Since then, he's continued to be terrific. Soto is at .975 OPS. The next best NL rookie is at .836. Acuna is third at 0.819. Brian Anderson, second in the mid-July ROY poll, is hitting .285, but his OPS is "only" 0.781. There are no break-out pitchers.
And Soto is second in home runs, behind only Villaneuva (19 HR), San Diego's 3B, who is hitting only 0.225.
If Soto stays even close to his current pace, he should win ROY -- unless he gets badly dinged for his defense.
PF - yeah it's not QUITE his to lose, where he'd have to struggle to lose it. I can see someone run off an awesome last 2 months and Soto kind of repeat his July splits - perfectly good but not awesome - and that other player passing him. But we're only a couple weeks away from that being the case.
@Cooper Roark - look at the prospects Baltimore got for Machado, who is having a better year than Bryce. Is that worth it? And the other question would be, "what pennant race?"
Ugh.
Rip the band aid off. We'll miss you, Bryce.
PF/Harper: IMO the only threat is Acuna. He’s a far better fielder and runner than Soro is basically pure bat. And he’s battled injuries the whole year and is now healthy so he’s totally capable of having a month where he hits like Soto....plus the ATL Braves are a story this year. I think if Acuna gets up to say .850-.875, he has a chance of stealing it, because at that point the WAR will be close given acuna’s steals, fielding etc. I don’t see Soto collapsing. He’s frankly just too sound a hitter from what I’ve seen. The guy is going to have an OBP near .400 as a teenager. Does he get extra credit for being 19? Maybe compared to Brian Anderson types, but Acuna also young and also clearly a star to be. My prediction is that Acuna and Soto when you throw everything in the mix, will be the two contenders. I bet Acuna has a .850 OPS type year and Soto has an edge at .900+ OPS with higher slash numbers across board. But the winning team/pedigree/all around game lifts Acuna to the award IF he performs sufficiently to get anywhere within shouting distance of Soto’s batting year (which will be hard.) IOW Soto is in the league. But Acuna can catch him. I give Soto 3:1 odds over Acuna. Nobody else with a shot.
IOW Brian Anderson has zero shot. With these awards the pedigree matters to voting. It would’ve been no fun to look back at 2012 and see Todd frazier won the award and not Harper IOW. You want future stars to be ROY winners. Also, incidentally, Brian Anderson just hasn’t been as productive, even with Acuna’s injuries.
Soto inside outs the ball to LF like no young lefty I’ve ever seen. He almost hits the ball to opposite field so much I would pitch him IN if I were a pitcher. As for Bryce, he actually has hit plenty of his homers this year to opposite field. Far more than last year as a % despite having a down year. He has always drifted a bit on his swing even in 2015 I have to say. He just swings with so much torque that it almost pulls his body with the bat. To me the key to Bryce is when he’s lunging at the ball vs sort of staying bat and stepping quietly into his swing.
I think Soto is the favorite right now but not running away with it because of Acuna and his all around game. Acuna will almost certainly have inferior hitting numbers but he brings value in other ways. So he just needs to be VAGUELY comparable. Plus the Braves are a good story and he frankly has even MORE pedigree than Soto.
Good luck being a killjoy on Soto! Should be real tough to unless he's on the cover of SI, or something. I've banked so much joy from watching his at bats this season that there's just no way he doesn't break even by the end of the year. Also, if Nats fall completely out of contention, he probably hits even better - no pressure, etc.
Wait a minute. I just checked the Hamel-Cubs trade. You mean to tell me we could have gotten Cole Hamels for essentially Tanner Roark, Jackson Tetrault, and $5M? What?
Hamels stinks and he hits rookies on purpose just because. Screw adding that guy. Does any team need Papelbon as a starter?
I get the desire to be contrarian and you'll win more than you lose betting on extreme events to be at least in part caused by variance, but I think folks aren't hyped enough on Soto.
He's having the best offensive season by a 19 year old in the history of the game. And it's not close. Even if he regresses a ton and runs a wRC around 120 for the rest of the year (and depending on the projection, he's expected to be somewhere in the 130s), he'll end up about tied with Mel Ott at the top of that list.
But that's not enough. Harper argues with some justification that we shouldn't read too deeply into comparisons with the 19-yr cohort. There just aren't that many seasons in the dataset (only 43 since 1905 with 200 PAs), and playing so young at all is a fluke (eg Soto would not be in the majors if Robles hadn't dove for that ball), so while playing at 19 and playing well at 19 are certainly very good indicators, maybe being the best at 19 doesn't give us much more additional signal.
So, like Harper suggests, let's expand to include 20 year olds. I pulled all 20 and younger seasons with at least 200 PAs since 1905 (which I admit was a non-random endpoint chosen to remove a couple old-timers I'd never heard of but leave in Ty Cobb, who I had). That generated a dataset of 178 seasons.
Soto is no longer 1st in wRC. He's now 4th, behind the 20 year old seasons of Mike Trout, Mel Ott and Ty Cobb. And if you use the projections to fill out the year and regress him down into the 140s, he falls to somewhere in the 9th to 12th range (among the 20 year old campaigns of Jimmie Foxx, Rogers Hornsby and Frank Robinson).
In fact, if you take these top 20 seasons as a peer set (wRCs ranging from 130 to 167), you'd project Soto to probably make the hall of fame. Those 20 seasons come from 17 players. Of the 17, 11 have been out of the game long enough for their HOF fate to be decided. 9 were voted in by the writers and 1 is THE EXAMPLE of a major injury derailing a great position player's career, Conigliaro. (The 11th is some guy from the dead ball era, Dick Hoblitzel.) Other than Soto, 4 active players are on the list - Trout, Harper, Correa and Jason Heyward. Trout is a HOF lock, and Harper and Correa are at least 50/50. The 17th player on the list is ARod.
Right now, I'd take even money on Soto making the HOF. Which is crazy. What we're seeing is crazy. Bryce is one of his weaker comps, like his 30th percentile outcome. Let's get crazy about it.
Cole Hamels isn’t that good anymore. He has like the same ERA as Tanner.
Yes. Even money to make HOF after 200 AB IS crazy. However. I also think that people are not sufficiently hyped about Soto. Nobody hits like this at this age. Nobody. As in zero. He has a peak Joey Votto slash line at 19 and most of MLB is barely taking notice. It’s crazy. I’ll put it this way. If he doesn’t become an absolute star hitter, it will be SUPER. SUPER weird. Rest of his game? Doesn’t look great. Maybe he’ll improve it.
I don't think Soto should be even money to be HOF yet. Way too many things can happen between now and the end of his career. I agree that he's under-hyped, but this seems like an overcorrection.
On the other hand, with a 3B and HR tonight, he's now batting .315......with an OPS over 1.000! As a teenager!
I need to shop for my third Soto authorized mercb. When will opposing pitchers start to try solve him? And @harper, good luck again with the killjoy
Nats SHOULD be able to compete in this crapshoot 2018 NL, especially in the east and the WC. They have gained ground on WC competition two nights in a row and tonight on their east competitors. When I think of it THAT way, that the NL is relatively weak this year, I think they should be buyers, not sellers because it's a weak year and except for the Cubs and maybe the Dodgers, no one is that good, so a team with the Nats' talent SHOULD be in the hunt.
Maybe Rizzo pulls off something major over before the deadline, like Realmuto AND a starting pitcher. That would make me sit up and pay attention. But maybe not. I don't think they quite have what is needed as they are presently constituted either on the field or in the dugout.
Meanwhile, no matter what happens, the Summer of Soto has been great. One thing I love about baseball is that you can enjoy a player's season even when his team is down or middling.
Soto would be a lock for the Hall if it awarded exceptional singular accomplishments rather than consistency and longevity. It doesn't. Soto wouldn't get in even if he ends the season at .330 with 30 homers and then did something similar for the next five seasons before trailing off.
I can't argue with most of the players in the HoF, as averaging .280+ or 3.40 for 12+ years is remarkable and I have trouble making a case against any particular player (although...was Biggio really that good?). It's just annoying that similarly remarkable one-off feats or even stretches of several historically great years don't get acknowledged. Roger Maris is not in the hall of fame.
Cardinals-only Pujols should be a lock. For those with the HoF ballots, he would need these extra years with the Angels (which are pretty good, but his best LAA year is still worse than his worst STL year in terms of WAR). He's basically had one HoF-worthy career and a bonus very good career, but he'll need both to be a first-ballot inductee, and that is what bothers me.
Closer to home: Scherzer would not be a lock if his career ended now. I have little doubt he will get in eventually, as he will almost surely increase his career appearances by at least 20% and have his average performance decrease by no worse than 20% (let's somewhate conservatively say he has four more seasons where he wins 10-14 per year, 150 K, ERA around 3.30). Switch it so that he has the opposite: cut him off in 2015 but give him an extra 35 K and 3 wins per season. Drop his career ERA to 3.00. That version drops off the ballot in the minimum number of years.
All that as a way of saying Soto is far from even money. I don't know what kind of odds I'd need to place a bet in 2018 on him getting in, especially since I don't know if dollars will be a thing in 2045, but it would need to be something like $100 gets me the equivalent of Bryce's 2019 salary.
I don’t think people understand that like...players who are already awesome at age 19 or 20 are superstars who win MVPs. As like a rule. Soto is going to be a monster. I don’t think that’s in doubt.
personally, I actually think if Scherzers career ended after this season he would eventually get in. 3 Cy Youngs? I don’t think anybody with 3 hasn’t made it. More and more it seems like people are caring more about peak value than longevity. (See Vlad this year for example). The fact is Max Scherzer spent the peak of his career as arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Those types usually get in. It’s the people who have unremarkable peaks who have to grind their way in using longevity and big numbers like Biggio. I agree. He’s not a hall of Famer. Nobody ever watched biggio play and was like “wow. He’s just special.” He was sort of like a Dustin pedroia type but with fewer October accomplishments. Not an all time great. One thing that seems clear is Strasburg, barring a reinvented ability to stay healthy, will not a serious candidate for the Hall, which is a downer. Because if he could stay healthy and compete for a couple more Cys, he probably could get into the conversation. His rate stats remain incredible (I think his career ERA is like 3.10 or something....right in line with plenty of folks who have gotten in.)
I would also add that Trea Turner if he could get himself to being a consistent .300 hitter who jacked 20 homers a year and stole 40 bags a year is the other player on the Nats with the talent to eventually have a potential HOF case. He’s a long shot especially with the caliber of shortstops around baseball in his time. But if he made a leap to another level and sustained it, (again .310, 20, 40 every year) he could compile a case.
Side note: anybody know why Turner is stealing less this year?
I think trading pennies for Wilson Ramos is the perfect move. They wouldn’t have to give up much since he is coming off a hammy thing so his price will be decreased. But personally I don’t think the Nats can make the playoffs this year and make their run without doing SOMETHING about catcher.
@BxJaycobb: I agree; catcher is really awful for us right now. Severino is in the minors for a reason--he and Kieboom are equally awful with the bat, but the coaching staff believed they saw a difference there in defense, framing, or game-calling. Wieters can't play defense, can't frame, and can't hit (he's been abysmal since coming off the DL), meaning his alleged game-calling skill is the only thing he brings over the kids (and in all fairness, he IS an experienced veteran so it's not unbelievable that he does indeed call a better game). We're running a position player slot out there every day that hits worse than the bad version of Taylor and doesn't offer the defensive upside. We knew the position would be bad going into this season and yet somehow it's managed to be *worse* than expected. SOME kind of upgrade is needed.
Whether Ramos is that upgrade or not depends, I think, on the severity of that hamstring injury. I'd be looking VERY closely at those medicals if I were Rizzo. And of course, Ramos being a rental, it leaves us in the exact same position to start next season (there's a reason why Realmuto's name keeps coming up in these rumors).
@BXJ
I would guess that it's a combination of things.
More data-driven approaches see steals as unnecessarily risky. Dusty didn't really care and liked fast players and old-school tactics. Martinez is more modern. It's a risk for little reward if your mentality is centered in conserving outs.
Also going against stealing: taking second means you can score on a single from the next guy. Stringing together singles is not what this offense is good at. If the guy behind you is a three-true-outcomes guy like Bryce, then it doesn't matter if you're on second or first because it's either a K (being on second vs first doesn't help you score), a BB (moves you to second anyway), or a HR (you score no matter where you are). Turner is fast enough to score from first on a double, so stealing doesn't help in that situation either.
Regarding the data driven approach, that is true except sabermetrics/analytics just suggests you should not steal UNLESS you can make it 80% of the time. Which is high but turner easily is at that rate.
I wonder if it’s more about him hitting ahead if Bryce. Seems like a poor use of turners best skills to have him in that position (i agree about Bryce not being a singles guy). Plus isn’t MAT stealing more than ever? I’d be surprised if turner in general is being told not to steal. Maybe it’s due to where he is in order. Which is a poor use of his skill set. He should not be hitting 1 or 2 in my view. He should be hitting like 6 ahead of the lesser hitters so that an extra bag means something
@BJX
Turner just stole two bases. The 2-4 hitters go strikeout, strikeout, groundout.
Zim is batting third. I was wondering momentarily if a Zogsports softball game was being televised, but I had just seen Trea Turner and Bryce Harper so I had strong evidence it was indeed an actual major league baseball game in 2018 with Ryan Zimmerman in the 3-hole. I'm still having a tough time believing it.
I mean. The idea of playing Zim over Adams against a RHP is insane and illogical alone. Let alone hitting him 3rd so he can K with a guy on third and 1 out and then kill a rally with a double play.
One can only wonder if Joe Maddon planted a double agent here as the manager of the Nats. This way he could kill off the Nats before they even made the playoffs.
Last nights lineup was inexplicable. Harper hitting second and Zim third. Two strike out machines and neither could hit a fly ball. Rendon is out and you leave those guys at the top of the order. Makes perfect sense in this twisted world.
Another game lost to a rookie manager. If they make the playoffs, it will be in spite of DM, not because of him.
Lineup orders rarely alter outcomes. But playing a worse player over a superior one does. (Zim over Adams).
Ssln - Rendon has been out on paternity leave. I'm just baffled by this five infielder strategy.
I think any rational person making unemotional decisions has to sell now.
I just saw Robles play tonight. He's definitely a plus fielder. Not sure about his bat: popout, HBP (pretty sure only his jersey got clipped, so...good reflexes?), popout (a goofed bunt attempt), reached on catcher interference, lineout. Needs to go down a hat size because it kept falling off.
I agree with sell. I think you could package together a few vets and get something in return.
I think the case for buy is that they continue to underperform. BaseRuns and Pythag would put them just under the Phillies. They're 10-18 in 1-run games. If that variance evened out a bit, the team added a few key players, and they performed well in the many H2H games with the Braves and Phillies, the playoffs would be possible.
Stil, the odds are in favor of selling. I suppose if you don't get any good offers, you could just hold.
@Kubla Thanks for the scouting update on Nats' top prospect.
I think Robles' bat should be fine. Right now, it looks like he projects to be league-average at the plate in MLB. On Friday, he had a hit, a walk, a double, a home run, two runs scored, two RBI, and two stolen bases.
Fangraphs gives him a projection of 70 for Hit, and 45 for Game Power, so he should blossom into a plus bat. Couple that with 70 speed, and he should eventually be an offensive force.
I was really excited to see him since he wasn't listed on the roster. It's tough to tell how fast people are until you see them live. He's not as fast as Turner, but he's got serious speed and CF was basically a dead zone for the Bulls' hitters. It's baseball, so today it was hard to keep telling my friends "hold on, watch this guy, he's really good" when he was at bat, but that happens.
The takeaway from that is that I have friends.
How are the Nationals not in first place? My gosh, they're averaging over 8 runs a game over the last three games. Stats don't lie!
Post a Comment