Offseason Position Discussion : Catcher

Last year discussion revisited

Last year we assumed the Nats would stick with Wieters because they were paying him and there were no better options. Severino would back up because they weren't paying him and there were no better options. In a completely forgotten about development the Nats had been speaking very high of Raudy Read to end last year and it seemed reasonable to believe they were hoping he might take a big step in 2018. We all hoped that the above, which objectively appeared to be a failure waiting to happen, would somehow work out. Or maybe the Nats would do something else.

The Nats didn't do something else and it didn't work out. Wieters would have an oddly effective start to the season (homers and walks) get hurt, and hit like 2016 when all was said and done. That wasn't as bad as 2017, but it was still below average. Despite 20% of the Nats fanbase fooling themselves into thinking he could do better, Pedro Severino, the guy who never hit in the minors, didn't hit in the majors. At all. .168 average, 2 homers in 70 games. Read would get suspended in the spring for PEDs. When he came back he hit like he had done before in AA (ok) and floundered in a brief AAA audition. Spencer Kieboom would take his place in the pecking order and he would hit like 2017 Wieters. With none of these guys seen as gold glove defenders to make up for the lack of production at the plate, all in all the Nats had possibly the worst catching situation in the NL.

Presumed Plan : The Nats bring in someone through trade or FA, while Severino, Kieboom, and Read fight for the back-up role

Reasoning on Presumed Plan : They can't enter 2019 as a serious contender with Severino/Kieboom as a plan. That would be taking that "worst catching in the NL" situation and somehow making it worse. No one thinks these guys are going to amount to anything. This is not a plan is a desperation heave into the endzone.

So that being said the only option is to solve this problem from without. There are a handful of catchers available on the market this off-season, most notably Yasmani Grandal, who has spend his whole career as an above average bat. Old friend Wilson Ramos is available. As is former hot thing, Jon Lucroy who can still hold his own behind the plate. The point is - there are catchers available better than Severino/Kieboom for nothing more than money

If trading is in the cards, JT Realmuto seems like the ideal candidate, but there are likely one or two others available (Sal Perez? Cervelli?) at various costs and returns. Again better than Severino/Kieboom.

Problems with Presumed Plan :  Free agents are always a gamble and the catcher position feels even more so. It's a demanding position with hard to define defensive qualities that is often filled with mediocre bats. Some catchers age like fine wine, especially in part-time roles, like former Nat Kurt Suzuki. Others just stop performing entirely, like Russell Martin. Good luck at figuring out which catcher will do that.  If they throw money at it, they could end up with another Wieters situation where the team feels obligated to start the signed guy for the length of the deal.

Trading is a little more secure because you could deal for a younger guy, which mitigates some of the injury risk. Unsurprisingly though - teams don't want to deal young good catchers (which makes Realmuto a rare breed) If a team deals for someone older, they could end up trading for a big fat nothing.

There's nothing here that doesn't apply to every signing but catcher feels more problematic than your average offensive position. That's why there are so many below average catchers out there.

My take : The Nats have to do something, but the catcher slot provides usually minimal rewards that it's very tempting to do little. Why spend 10 million a year over 4 years for a guy that is merely "above average" when 2 mill a year for 2 might snag you a guy just slightly below average? Betting on framing numbers (Grandals are very good)? Why not turn that money into a starter, reliever, or use it to help your Bryce/Rendon situations? 

What it feels like to me is the catcher situation is the last domino to fall. The Nats will grab a back-up 1B, some cheap 2B from the glut, decide what to do on Bryce, decide what to do on Rendon, grab a real SP, and then ok, deal with catcher. Is this ok? Assuming they make all the right decisions above I can see that.

The problem is though, the position isn't really deep enough to wait on. Sit on it too long and you'll find yourself with no good options again and what? Wieters back on a 1mill/yr deal?

Here's what I do - I throw reasonable but cheap contracts at Jon Lucroy and Brian McCann (say 3 mill a year for 2 years a piece) and say you guys are a platoon, deal with it.. Lucroy was a good hitter three years ago, McCann two, chances are you luck into something here. Guys like Lucroy behind the plate which is always appreciated and he may benefit from a split catching situation with more rest. McCann, I know Nats fans hate, but players seem to generally like him and he'll add something to the Nats that they didn't have this year - someone to take media attention if necessary. And it'll be for reasonable costs.

Would I rather trade for Realmuto? Yes. But I don't believe the Nats will part with Robles, or throw everything else at the Marlins, so what's the point of going down that road.  Would I like Grandal on the team? Yes. But I think the cost will be high on him and they haven't shown themselves to be flexible enough to win a bidding war and not let it effect their overall plans. With a strict payroll limit being set I don't want so much sunk into one player at one position.

Out of the box suggestion :

You want OOB? Here's OOB. Trade Strasburg to the Yankees for Gary Sanchez. Yes, yes crazy but hear me out here. This year was bad for Sanchez but everyone in baseball, including the Yankees - who are all but saying don't bother coming knocking around for Gary, seem to think it was just a perfect storm. A few defensive miscues, a few injuries, a slump to start, just snowballed. If everyone is right you get a monster hitter with solid defense for nothing, because you bought low. But you can't really buy low on this guy. Joe Ross + Erick Fedde is a joke offer. So you give up Strasburg. Why Strasburg? Because Strasburg is a guy who misses a month every year, who's working off a TJ arm, who probably tried to skip out on a playoff start last year because he wasn't 100% ready putting his team in an awkward bind, who you have 5 very expensive years left to pay for. At some point that's a check that's going to have to be cashed and better that the Nats aren't left holding the bill.  Sure you have to replace that production in the rotation but with 25+ million freed up with Strasburg gone, you can do it.

It was the era of Stras and Bryce. If it's to end, then really end it.