We're moving into trying to will something into existence territory now.
SOMEONE END THIS MADNESS. SIGN BRYCE. SIGN MACHADO. SIGN KEUCHEL. SIGN KIMBREL. SIGN MARWIN.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
SECOND MOST POPULAR BLOG OF THE LAST SEASON PLAYED WITHOUT THE STUPID EXTRA-INNING GHOST RUNNER WORLD CHAMPION WASHINGTON NATIONALS
47 comments:
We can only hope something happens!! But the news that Martinez was going to sign with Boston didn't hit until 2/19/18.
If we don't land Bryce - whatever. Call it a coping mechanism? Fine. I call it moving on. Sign Kimbrell then. The bullpen is looking more likely to be a disaster than something we can count on. He would be a step up from Solis (who would be on the 25-man roster if this group goes untouched). Please help the bullpen.
Harper
So let's continue yesterday's discussion. You see a vast conspiracy among the owners to deflate the player's salaries. When you own a business you are always trying to cut costs so that you make the biggest profit. That means you ask the public to build your stadiums for you and you try and get your employees to work for the lowest possible wages. Employees react by striking and joining unions to get better wages and working conditions. Towns aren't totally stupid in subsidizing ball parks. Look at the construction around Nats' park. The area was dead but now high priced condo dot the area. Was Arlington County stupid for subsidizing Amazon's move to Capital Landing?
What you are seeing in baseball is just what is happening in business throughout America.
In fast food restaurants, order takers are being replaced by machines to cut costs. When the Nats first came to town, I could walk up and buy a ticket from a person at a window/ Those jobs have been replaced by a machine that dispenses tickets.
Harper go back and read your American history in the 18th century. This battle has been going on foe centuries so why do you think sports should be any different? Here is my view. If Harper decides to sit out the season, they will still play the games and no one will miss him. Does the name Sean Gilbert ring a bell with you?
There was one piece of good news today. MLB is reporting the Nats are no longer interested in Bryce.
As to your lack of understanding of economics, I think your prediction of 330M for ten years shows how out of touch you are with reality. Be sure and remind me if I am wrong. Don't worry about the other side of the coin, for i will surely remind you if you get it wrong.
I take it the Kepler/Polanco extensions won't be enough to satisfy you, Harper? How about Axford signing a minor league deal?!
Sign Tony Sipp to replace Sammy Solis? Or see if the Giants will accept something in return for Will Smith? We're not going to pay out Kimbrel money or Keuchel money, so getting one above-average LHRP to replace the one genuinely expected-to-be-bad player in the 'pen seems to be the only move left worth making (presuming that Kendrick will be ready for Opening Day).
1987. Collusion is back in style.
GIVE BRYCE ALL THE MONEY FOR ALL THE YEARS!!!
Paying more for a player than the MLB ownership cabal-sanctioned, sabremetrically-derived, age-curve approved price is the next Moneyball! Same as the 80s strategy that created the path for Moneyball. The team-building full circle has been achieved.
Okay. A liiiiiitle pissed at this one, but I just saw an article on MLBTR discussing the near-deal we had with Houston at the deadline in July 2018. In the words of Astros GM, it was "all but locked down." Aside from the haul we would have received (it was a good return, and a head-scratcher as to why we didn't pull the trigger), there was some serious level stupid going on here that went largely unnoticed:
Apparently the Lerners didn't do the deal with Houston because they thought it would damage the relationship with Bryce and make it difficult to re-sign him during the offseason. But they put him on the trade block?! So intent doesn't matter - just actually trading him does? You're telling me that Bryce is totally fine that they wanted to trade him away, but ended up not doing it, so all is good now? Please. If you're going to escalate a situation, be prepared to act. If you draw your gun, be prepared to shoot. Apparently the Lerners see that situation as "I don't want to be with you, we need to separate, oh wait never mind, want to still hang out?"
This is so oddly reminiscent of Kirk Cousins and the Redskins, and how they botched that situation years before he actually left the team, and then tried to frame him as the bonehead who wouldn't accept a fair offer. After the Nats threatened to trade Bryce, and pulled back the offer, they still expect that relationship to be solid? What?? It's clear now. Crystal. Bryce ain't coming back here. And every spin, every "we offered him 10/300 - he didn't take it" line we've been fed, its all a front for a relationship that THEY soured by attempting to trade him last summer. Now that other teams are rumored to be approaching that amount, we get fed another bs story from the FO about how "oh actually we offered him much more than 10/300... so just showing you guys that we want him more than any other team... he just want accept it. What's with Bryce? Crazy huh?" Utter stupidity that you need to be a fool to believe. Either don't put him on the block and keep your relationship intact with Bryce, or put him on the block and GET IT DONE. Weak stuff from the front office right there, and now we're in a situation where we get NOTHING for the face of our franchise walking away. And potentially Philly, no less. Wow.
With management like this in the owners box, it makes me laugh that they actually thought they had a shot at retaining Bryce Harper. One Dan Snyder was enough in this town.
Washington has been one of the best franchises since 2012 and you're complaining about the front office? One of the highest payrolls in the league and you're calling them incompetent! What is clear is that Harper the player has not lived up to Harper the myth. His output since 2015 has declined significantly. 2016-2018 do not the highest priced talent in the game make. And on the Cousins matter, turns out the Redskins opinion of Cousins bore out to the utter dismay of the Minnesota Vikings who gave a good player historic money. Bryce was offered stupid money and he turned it down. If he gets more, let it be with someone else's foolish front office.
I heard in passing that the president has declared a Nationals emergency in order to appropriate federal funds for another purpose. I wasn't really paying attention but I assume that some of that money will go toward signing Bryce, and maybe putting a retractable roof over Nats Park.
The important thing is that catchers and pitchers reported on Wednesday, position players report on Monday, and real live baseball will start shortly. What happens outside the stadium, who cares? It's baseball!!
Ole PBN - I think they are done and you should accept this team as is.
ssln - I wanted to say "I made that 10/330 guess a long time ago!" but it really wasn't was it? I feel less confident today and feel free to skewer me if it comes in far under. I will say don't skewer everyone talking that way though in say... November. It was the general consensus at that time and when you have agents, and management, and reporters, and economic guys all seeing it and saying it then can't blame a fan for thinking it. I think the corner turned though around Christmas, with more people accepting last year as the new normal.
A few points on this
"When you own a business you are always trying to cut costs so that you make the biggest profit."
1) I'm not sure you understood what I said in regards to baseball bc this was basically in my last response. You said "It's bc of the cable fees" and I was like "That's just an excuse. They always do this"
2) While generally true this isn't always true
3) Even if you cynically believe #2 isn't right ("Oh that place that pays it's workers more than it needs to? It's just trying to build profits through good will" etc.) then we as consumers can drive the businesses to act in certain ways by frightening them into thinking that actions will effect their business. Usually futile but it can work
Look we're not going to agree here bc you seem to think this is an economic argument when it's a philosophical one. You seem to be "Owners going to try to make money. Players going to try to make money. I'm going to enjoy whatever they put in front of me" I'm like "Owners going to try to make money. Players going to try to make money. Right now the owners trying to make money in a way that is effecting my enjoyment of the game and I'm thinking about sitting it out. Probably not soon but eventually if it continues"
Matt - Axford's signed? YOU'VE DONE ENOUGH OWNERS!
Dezo - see my response to OlePBN, unless there is an injury I think they are done.
Robot - that's a little much and I'm not sure he needs the money after say... 2100 or so
OlePBN - I'm fine with not doing the deal, but if you don't do it you have to either sign him, or buy into last year as a last go at a championship with him. They wouldn't need to go over and beyond with this contract if they dealt for talent last year. But they didn't they tossed a couple relievers away and crossed their fingers.
Anon @ 8:50 - It can be both true that they have a great front office (at least Rizzo) and we complain because they haven't won a championship. That's sports. Winning it all is the goal and even if you can't draw a straight line from front offices worth to there that's where most people set the bar. But feel free to set yours as "playoff competitive" - some people here do. They are in general a lot happier about this team.
sirc - I mean you can still build a pretty good wall for 900 million, I bet.
W. Patterson - I guess so.
Aw come on Harper. Playoff competitive = chance to win. 2012 was baseball at it's most cruel. Storen, if he were a veteran pitcher, gets out of the ninth with no damage and the Nats are through to the LCS. Rivera throws the exact same pitches and it's good night Charlie. That ump was not going to allow St Louis to lose on a called third strike, because Storen threw strikes. 2017, baseball at it's most bizarre. Who could dial up that inning, no screen writer would ever dare. All you can do it make the playoffs, what fate has in store is a different thing. Those teams were good enough to win it all, they didn't get there by luck.
Harper and Machado are special cases. They've priced themselves so high that most teams can't be in the market, no matter what we say. As for the rest, here's what Barry Svergula said yesterday in the Post:
"Last year, the average on-base-plus-slugging percentage for non-pitchers across the majors was .740. Other than Bryce and Manny, how many of the remaining free agents had at least 100 plate appearances and posted an OPS better than that number in 2018? That would be five..."
Sorry, I don't see any bidding-wars erupting over these guys.
Another stat that does have me worried, though, is the state of the fan base, whose average age is 57! If MLB owners were thinking seriously about the future, they might invest more -- a lot more, like maybe $100 million this year -- in getting more kids into amateur team play, as well as in the stands (with free passes, for instance). Like Bryce and Manny, the game is pricing itself out of too many people's budgets.
Apparently my post was lost via longevity. The point is (second attempt): if you want to maintain a good relationship, don't sour it by putting him on the trading block with a deal in place, and then take him off of it. Its that last part I have problem with. If you're going to go that far to have a deal on the table, go all the way. But instead, now you have a disgruntled player who probably questions the loyalty of the FO.
And Anon 8:50, we could have extended Cousins for much cheaper long before 2018. But instead Snyder played the finger-pointing game, tagged Cousins two years in a row, and absolutely soured the relationship. And yes, now its Minnesota's problem, but for a lot more money than we would have gotten him for years ago. And I think I'd still take their QB "problem" over the Skins. Who is our QB again?
The Lerners business practices have been shady as hell, from real estate (ask anyone in the industry what it's like working with them), to cheaping out on a Nats manager, and now to Bryce. Take all of that and add terrible PR and you have yourself a circus.
But alas, we have Rizzo, who is able to field a competitive team each year since 2012. That is our saving grace.
Ole PBN - Alex Smith had the Redskins at 6 - 3 and poised for the playoffs. Then had his leg broken. Fate, karma, roll of the dice...whatever you want to call it. Then McCoy had his leg broken. Bizarre circumstance. The team had made the right call in the quarterback change. Cousins was always looking for top quarterback money despite never delivering in the clutch when the chance presented itself. So Cousins explains nothing except marginal players want to be paid. By the way, my son is in the building industry and his take is different from yours. Let's stick to the sports department here if you don't mind.
Fangraphs just posted their Zips projections for the Nats and there's only one player in baseball projected to be substantially better than Soto next year, Trout. I could almost just type that again out of enthusiasm. So he's projected to be the overall most valuable left fielder in baseball. Fun.
Turner also gets a really strong projection where he'll be worth the same as Rendon at 4.4 fWAR. I would have considered that optimistic before now.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-washington-nationals/
@billyhacker. Trout is the only player projected to hit better than Soto. Including defense, a handful of two-way stars project for more overall value. Betts, Lindor and Ramirez all beat Soto by more than a whole win.
Still, it's an incredible projection and I can't wait to watch.
Anon - It’s not just my opinion of them, it’s their reputation. If you’re disagreeing with me about the Bryce near-deal last summer with Houston, and are saying the Lerners handled that well - then I really don’t know what to say. Common sense isn’t as “common” as we all thought I suppose?
Ole PBN your common sense comment is ad hominem. I agree with you about the Lerners but be cool.
Josh, you’re right - too much. Didn’t think that many people disagreed with the overall point of my argument about the botched handling of the Bryce trade deadline deal. Lesson learned is that presenting anologies often distract from one’s main contention. Guilty as charged: complaining about others bringing up the NFL as an analogy when I did just that in my original post.
Opening Day can’t get here soon enough.
Ol PBN - Please tell me who has handled trading a star player mid year before losing him well. You can't because none of us are in the room. There is no good way to explore what you get vs trying to maintain a good relationship with a player. They had to explore the market and if Harper took that as a slight that's on him, and mighty immature to boot. Harper is asking for the most money in history, despite his lack of historically great output and the Lerner's should just cave to his demands. They should have traded him, at least th teamy would have gotten something and we could have avoided this ridiculous circus.
core: "cave to his demands?" "at least the team". Fumble fingers...
@billyhacker huh? Soto’s not close to the second most valuable projection. Are you talking only about hitting?
Looking at the fangraphs ZIPS projections, you’re struck by how top-heavy the Nats remain. They continue to be a team that IMO just doesn’t do quite enough to shore up the bottom layer and depth (no 4-6 starters, bench players, etc). Looking at the projections, I suspect they are underrating the catching combo and Robles, and worry that they are overrating Eaton.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-washington-nationals/
Harper
You need a little weekend reading to see how the BH hype machine has worked.
Here are a few suggestions:
Bryce Harper could easily be worth 400M by the time he is a free agent. 12/7/16 USA Today.
Bryce Harper's contract could pass 400M. 3/28/18 Business Insider
MLB: Bryce Harper 500M contract is a possibility 6/30/17.
Bryce Harper, even at 500M, would be a bargain. 11/16/17 Washington Post.
Why Bryce Harper would be a bargain at 500M 11/17/2017 NBC Sports
Bryce Harper has a chance to be MLB first 500M man. NBC Sports.
You see Bryce is being chated because all the sophisticated sports writers said he was worth 500M so you are short changing the guy at 330M.
Harper I spoke about FCF in my original post. Don't give me some answer that says you need change for a dollar. You want to discuss FCF with me? If not fine. You want to do macro economics instead. Since you want to pretend you understand this topic, what do you think a fair return is for owners that invested a billion dollars to buy a team? Give me a number.
This whole thing may come down to Boras over estimating the market. Maybe the Learners offered the 300M and BH turned it done. Sometimes you simple overestimate the value of a property which may have happened in this case. As a fan you can dream all you want but don't let your dreaming be a substitute for common sense.
Yeah, bx, obviously offensive production. As you know Soto is not a good outfielder.
Anon - last time buddy. Yankees handled Chapman pretty well. There’s one. Guess I can.
Also, they didn’t just “explore.” Hey had a deal on the table. Houston was waiting for the green light to announce it. Bats withdrew because of this fallacy of preserving a relationship. They lose him and the prospects we could have gotten in return. That is called “not handling it well.”
Boswell has a WaPo column out where some Nats (and Bos) cast shade on BH's lack of fundamentals (baserunning, overthrows, lack of hustle and alertness). Considering how positive Boswell's been about Bryce lately, it makes me wonder if he's heard something, like Harper's eliminated the Nats.
@ssln How them boots taste?
@Johnny Positive? Boswell has always been weirdly negative about Bryce.
Bryce has chosen somewhere else. Phillies or Giants. Predict we hear sometime next few days.
BTW here is one last fangraphs piece suggesting Bryce Harper will probably be a Hall of Famer which has about a 50% chance at 500 HR.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/harper-machado-betts-and-history/
BxJ: I know what you mean about Boswell not adoring Bryce, but he had been pretty much advocating for Bryce's signing if it was reasonable.
Bryce is 26 and may just want to try something/somewhere new. I don't get going to SF which is a franchise in disrepair. Going to Philly when he apparently hates the town seems like a bad move. I would assume he gets some early opt-outs if he goes there. I thought SD looked good because of the location/weather and they are getting better.
Staying with the Nats would mean continuity and contending every year for a while, at least. But he may feel he wants to start over and "prove himself" in a new spotlight (in that way NYY seemed the right move)...may have mentally assumed he wouldn't be coming back and can't turn around and stay.
If he's gone, then there will be a whole new set of pluses and minuses to consider. I do hope where he's going is revealed soon.
@ Johnny. Yes, I will say the Nats are in an unusually strong situation in terms of young outfielders to absorb the loss. But to me it’s a bit sad that this might be a kind of “statue in front of the stadium” type guy they’re losing. It does help your franchise to have an iconic star associated with it, and it was fun to have him. And of course you worry (or I do) that he’s gonna have 3 or 4 2015s with another team and win a title elsewhere.
Rumors going around now are that Harper is signing for 10 years for 310 with the Phillies. Sorry but I feel like the Nats have pretty much completely mishandled this. They should have traded him to Houston last year if they were going to let him leave over $10 million dollars. Now you're letting him go to the Phillies for the equivalent of Tanner Roark. IMO that is pretty bad. I agree they have spent money this offseason. However, by letting Harper sign with Philly you are making it a 4-way competition for the NL East. Davey Martinez inspires zero confidence in me that the Nats can remotely handle competition for the division. Now Boswell writes a character assassination piece for the Post where some anonymous "prominent Nats veteran" is saying the Nats are going to be a better team this year bc it was Harper's fault they didn't care about fundamentals?? When did Dan Snyder buy the Nats?
If Nats are letting him go for 10 310 then there better be several early opt outs. I think if Nats had given him opt outs in the 10 300 offer then there would have been more conversation.
Wonder if it is very front loaded with opt outs making it basically a 3 110...
And remember the deferrals put the offer from bats at 286, I think? Assuming no deferrals in Phillie offer then 24 million and optouts would be a pretty big difference for Bryce.
BxJ: Bryce putting up a few 2015s is definitely something that unnerves me. He has been so inconsistent, but if he gets "really focused," and can discipline his swing and play average D, it could really hurt to see him in Philly. On the other hand, I saw articles about how "locked in" Bryce was going into 2018 and he was all over the place (still remember a ball going through the infield, and Bryce not even reacting until everyone got an extra base). I'm really curious how he'll respond to being paid like "the man." Will it give him an extra gear? Will it make him cautious (so much scrutiny--Philly may be worse than NY in this way, because NY at least knows how to celebrate a star, and the NYY have several, so he wouldn't have the pressure)? Will he get grouchy?
I wish the Nats could/would sign him but I also think he wants to be paid like "the man" when he doesn't consistently play like that guy. Oh well, we'll probably know something by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Meanwhile, MLB.com has suggested the Nats pick up Adam Jones (solid backup, great clubhouse guy, plus I think he lives locally). Would he take a lowball offer? Any thoughts?
Hey old PBR
Boswell thinks that Werth was a great clubhouse presence and a teacher of young players. You not going to let Boz get away with that misrepresentation. We need an instant reply telling us how bad Werth really was and how his attitude hurt the team.
@SSLN. How does Boswell both believe that Werth was an incredible leader (Boswell likes werth more than anybody) and also that Bryce, werth’s protege who he took under his wing, never learned basic baseball fundamentals? Seems a little inconsistent.
@Johnny C: I would definitely offer Adam Jones a lowball offer, if he’s willing to be paid like a backup OF. Because MAT may be a great defensive backup but he’s a dreadful hitter. Adam Jones would be a good guy to sort of tutor Robles and Soto and bench bat or guy to play a corner if/when Eaton gets hurt.
Re Bryce.....I’m worried he’s gonna be one of these guys who needs one good coaching tip from a hitting coach on another team and he becomes mike trout at plate every year.....sort of like treinen or Felipe Rivero changes teams and gets a single pitching tip and they’re unhittable.
@Harper, Everybody: Apparently Marcus Stroman is pissed off in Toronto. He’s always been a guy I’ve wanted the Nats to go after in a trade. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26018330/marcus-stroman-wants-new-deal-blue-jays-says-offered-nothing
Post a Comment