you don’t want to go overboard on using limited data to make judgements. So 0-fers and a million SBs need to be taken in stride. However seeing Davey make another manager error is a continuation of something we’ve seen that you can hang a hat on.
To set the scene the Nats were down and Max was up with two outs in the bottom of the seventh and no one on. It probably made the most sense to pull him now and let Adams take a few cuts at tying the game up. Max’s spot may not come up again. You generally start pitchers a little light their first couple outings. DeGrom has already been pulled so the ace v ace game was off the table. The Nats pen only had to cover two innings (barring extras). The Nats have a day off today so the pen can fully reset. But Max was cruising so there was some logic to letting him stay. Pitchers to me are far more often pulled too early rather than too late*. This isn’t about getting a W for Max, but saying he gives us the best chance at a W in general.
So Max batted and got out. In this scenario Max pitches the 8th unless he has to be pulled. And Max went K BB K. Then something very odd happened. Max was pulled for Justin Miller. The questions are immediate and the answers aren’t clear. Why pull Max vs a righty batter he had held to 0-3 with two Ks? Probably because of being up to 109 pitches but with Cano on deck this would have to be his last batter. Do those last few pitches matter that much. And if they do - why Miller? Why not Barraclough, who would likely be the “big moment not end of game” guy? Or Rosenthal who would you know, come into the 8th in a big spot? Or Doolittle who is probably the best reliever right now? The answer is probably bc Martinez has planned to bring in Grace to get the lefty and didn’t want to “waste” Rosenthal or Doolittle on one batter. He also might have been thinking tie game which is why you save Bear Claw. You might want him to go one plus later.
But you see what happens if you plan to win later in a situation that demands a win now. Alonso got a hit. Not a great one but a hit. Cano did the same against Grace and the Mets had their insurance
Davey has to understand very soon that you play to win the game in front of you in the situation you are in at the moment. There can be leeway in this - you don’t need to use Doolittle in a big spot up 3 in the 5th against the Mariners when you have a 6 game division lead in August - but a big out in the 8th inning against a rival team with the heart of their order coming up? Use the big guns Fake Davey!
Day off - relax reset. Don’t get swept
*you don’t remember the too earlies but all the time. Trust me.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
38 comments:
"Playing to win now vs. playing to win later." This says it all with managers who can't slow the game down enough to make a proper decision. It moves too fast for them and they end up using what should be the 5th guy out of the pen (I'd put Suero in before Miller) over your ace, which - like you said Harper - whats a few more pitches. I find it fascinating, the idea of pulling a guy like Scherzer, who went K-BB-K, and you as a manager like the matchup of Miller vs. Alonso better? That's a head scratcher, and the only excuse is that Dave wanted to win the game later, instead of the game right in front of him.
Also, what makes Dave think that Grace is a good left-on-left match up? Against Cano, no less, who hits righties and lefties at an equally impressive clip. Lefties have hit .255 against Grace in his career, and he was worse against lefties last season (his best overall year) than he was against righties - lefties hit .258 against him last year. Perhaps Sipp wasn't ready? I just really don't like the fact that just because Grace is left-handed, doesn't mean its a superior matchup than anyone else you have in the pen. We saw the same thing with Solis for a long time. There are true LOOGYs, and then there are just guys who throw with the other hand. Grace is the latter, not a bad pitcher, but not your lefty specialist.
Also, Robles' base running error was bizarre too. But as much as we love his talent, and I'm sure he'll have a great year, these guys are young and there will be growing pains in terms of the little nuances of heads-up baseball.
deGrom is a tough straw to draw on Opening Day, but to be the best, you have to beat the best. Glad to see Max hasn't missed a beat and Turner looks super aggressive, as he should be. Still going to be a fun season.
I read it that:
A hitter not hitting, or an error here or there only affects that one instance whereas a manager's decision can affect the rest of the game.
Of course, can a manager have first game jitters?
For all those I'm-through-defending-Davey commentators, could you please explain how Martinez lost yesterday's game.
I absolutely agree that process matters. That being said, Nats were already down a run and managers get criticized also for pyrrhic tactics. They have to manage for 162 games. Granted, its against a division rival, so this one matters more than some others. But at the end of the day, the Nats probably wouldn't have won this one anyway. On to Game 2!
What annoys the **** out of me more than anything else is this team’s ongoing refusal to platoon Adams and Zimmerman, when it has been obvious for some time now that they should be doing this.
I don’t know if it’s Martinez making this decision, or if it’s a mandate coming from Rizzo or even the Lerners, but whoever is making the decision is simply not optimizing this team’s chances to score runs and win ballgames. And that is very frustrating to me.
I agree Adams should have been playing yesterday. I think the big problem with Davey is that not only did he use our worst relievers in the biggest spots - Miller and Grace, but he warmed up the other guys - effectively using them up too. According to the twitter, Sipp, Rosenthal, and Doolittle all warmed up but were not used. Allowing Scherzer to throw 109 pitches in his first start going into the 8th inning was dumb. Spending all spring training talking about Trea Turner running wild on the bases and batting Eaton lead off is stupid. The Nats might win games anyway. Martinez might figure it out and make better decisions as the year goes on. It is only one game after all. However, I have yet to see anything that makes me think Davey has any idea what he is doing. The problem is - who else are they going to get? We have to just sit back and hope for the best.
@Jay - Who else are they gonna get? Heck, are you new to this blog? There must be at least 30 regular posters that could out manage Davey. Just ask 'em! (grin)
we are doomed. not too early to say. the baserunning, poor hitting with RISP,and bad pitching decisions by manager were precisely the same as last year. the incapability to learn is a hallmark of doomed enterprises. Season is over.
Remember when Davey said we were going back to fundamentals during spring training....about that
Nitpicking here, but "Davey" hasn't managed this team since 2013. Dave Martinez was introduced yesterday to the home crowd as DAVE. So... it's Dave. Ok, glad thats settled :)
I'm not a Dave-detractor, I don't think he's terrible, I don't think we need a new guy at the helm, and I don't think he was the reason we lost last year or yesterday. But everyone in that dugout plays a role to some degree in wins and losses. Everyone. So he is partially responsible for the failures (and successes) of this squad. His comments in the postgame yesterday were that he "liked Grace's two-seamer running in on Cano." Sure, I get it. Bold strategy, Cotton. It didn't pay off. But, it's certainly better than "Barrett is our eighth inning guy" (as my namesake pays homage to). MW was truly thick-headed. I don't see Dave that way. You want to talk about Dave's ability to lead a club? I think we'll never know, and personally believe the verdict is still out on that. In any case, plenty of teams win in despite of its manager. Not sure why we can't do that given the talent we have. And that is assuming that Dave sucks - which is shortsighted and probably not true.
Dave preached fundamentals all spring, so why didn't Robles seem to understand that yesterday? It's either 1) he was not thinking, 2) a lack of experience, or 3) being told bad information (i.e. poor coaching). Yes, Yes, No. So thats on Robles.
Takeaways from yesterday: 1) facing deGrom is about as solid of an "L" as we can guarantee, regardless of who we have on the hill. 2) Scherzer is horse and 109 pitches on Opening Day is not a concern. Please. He should have finished the inning. 3) If it's late and close, and you want to take him out, take him out for someone who is a stud (Rosenthal, Doo, maybe Barraclough? or Sipp for L-on-L). Not Justin Miller who was almost out of baseball before we picked him up last year. 4) Zimmerman should be hitting exclusively against LHP. Adams for everything else. 5) Grace is our long man and should be one of the last guys out of the pen. 6) Grace is not a favorable L-on-L matchup. Go get Solis if you want to play that stupid game and win stupid prizes. Sipp was brought here, us him when the situation calls for it. 7) Grace's two-seamer is not better than Sipp is as a pitcher. 8) Robles will be making these errors, as Trea has done, as Bryce did before him. Ride or die with Victor because the alternative is below-replacement. 9) It's a long season. 10) None of what I just wrote matters to those actually on the field. :)
PBN, how do the Mets not also fear they will lose to Scherzer?
Blovy, they do. It was a pitchers duel yesterday with the two best on the planet going for either team. Yesterday went exactly how I thought it would go. One of them was going to make one mistake and that’s all it would take. Could have been either guy - but I was leaning in deGrom’s favor as Max is more prone to give up the long ball. My point is if your a Nats fan and you lose, better that it’s against deGrom instead of Jason Vargas. Same goes in the reverse if you’re a Mets fan. deGrom or Scherzer is a tough matchup, and just because we have Max pitching for us, doesn’t make it any easier for our hitters to face deGrom. Getting one run off either guy is tough to do.
I think it would be interesting if they had a WAR number for managers. They seem to have a stat number for everything these days so why not a Manager's WAR. I would give Davey a minus 6 war but I admit I may be charitable on that score. 90 wins are already down to 84 when you factor that stat in so this is going to get interesting.
On another matter, I spoke with Harper outside the blog and he informed me that the 23% miss rule applies to ll his predictions. That means if the Nats win 70, Harper is going to claim he was right.
As one poster told me, it is Harper's blog and he can write anything he wants. Okay, I can go with that one. Then at the bottom of the post he put a star and said even if he is being totally ludicrous. I can agree with that one also.
Amazing insight on a baseball blog.
Harper,
I am still available to help you balance your checkbook.
Agree with Ole PBN. Dave M hasn’t been great but yesterday really wasn’t a loss due to him. He wasn’t good, but (a) Rendon came up twice with RISP and (once with a guy on 3rd and one out) and couldn’t advance a runner. Want 30 AAV? Do better. (b) Robles has to know that a ball on the ground with plus speed he is running no matter what. (c) Our bullpen has to be capable of pitching a couple shut out innings. (d) Zim is not an everyday player. At what point, and how many stats do we need to go over to hammer it into everybody’s heads that he can’t hit RHP, and hasn’t been able to for half a decade. He’s a platoon player.
@ssln
The difficulty would be establishing a "replacement" manager against whom to measure performance. The AAA managers have different priorities than those in the big leagues since development is their main objective, so there isn't a direct analogue to the replacement player. Maybe a random number generator that starts making bullpen, pinch-hit, and defensive sub decisions once the 5th inning starts is the replacement manager? I'm smelling a new cost-cutting opportunity for teams on a budget.
@Kubla, SSLN, I can’t begin to think up a way to evaluate a manager in that way. You would just run into a million difficulties—you would have no way to evaluate the clubhouse leadership component that i can think of....I’m not sure how the number generator would take things like lineup construction into account....honestly to me the best way to evaluate a manager that i can think of is (over a large sample of years) compare the teams’ record vs their Pythagorean record, or alternatively their record in 1 run games? That’s the best (only?) way I can think of that compares a teams performance compared to the expected performance of a team with X talent, and even that is fraught because there’s a ton of luck involved. But I suppose you could convince me that maybe if you look at like 5 years of managing, a manager who’s W-L is decently better than their Pythag record vs one whose W-L is much worse shows you something. But it would have to be over a decent sample size, not one year. Because in any one or two years an amazing manager could have crappy luck in 1 run games. (Also skill in 1 run games perhaps would be disproportionately affected not only by things like bullpen management but the quality of the team’s pen itself. So if you have the Yankees pen, for example it would make more sense to me if they won more 1-run games than usual?
Zimmerman batting fifth against a RHP. Learn from mistakes, we must.
I'd like to think Ryan Zimmerman plays Thursday, since it's the home opener and you play your quote on quote "stars" on home openers barring injury. Why Zimmerman is starting in game 2 against a righty I don't have the slightest idea. As someone said above maybe it's a call from above.
I love Zim! That was the first shirsey I got for the Nats. Unlike Bryce, where I hope he strikes out 600 times this year, I will like Zimmerman no matter where he ends up. He's our Derek Jeter, he's a franchise icon. Unfortunately, much like Jeter, these guys get old, and injured, and after a while you become part time platoon players or bench players, and you have to push the legacy to the side, and do what's best for the team THIS year, and the franchise for THIS year. Zimmerman can probably still hit lefties, but what's best for the 2019 Nats is Adams and Zim in a platoon role: Adams against righties, Zim against lefties. I understand you are likely going to face more righties during the season than lefties, so if you want to give Zim a start against a righty here or there: i.e. on opening day, against an Orioles RHP, against a 4/5/AAAA RHP I am all for that, but Zim SHOULD NOT be starting against a Syndergaard, Wheeler, Nola, Verlander, deGrom, sans opening day.
OK, its only 2 games. But everything that can go wrong has gone wrong. And maybe it's just bad luck, but holy cow, what a catastrophe.
If this is the bullpen that's supposed to be any good, it's really not performing like one.
Platoon Zim. "the way you do it" clearly isn't working.
Sign Kimbrel. Either that or blow the team up, because this is absurd.
And make these clowns run laps after every loss. They need fielding work, and to know that their alternative is unemployment. I feel like I'm watching the Redskins here.
Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen. I figure Robles gets it together in center eventually, and hits and runs pretty well. Soto is still Soto, I think. Rendon will find his groove. Trea is good but should be better--does weird stuff on D and swings for the fences when he shouldn't. Gomes is probably good, Suzuki okay. Eaton will probably have a good OBP and be decent in the field. But Zim is looking shaky, no matter what Boswell and others say. It's only a matter of time for him, I think. Dozier worries me--is his slow bat a career trend? I was troubled by his signing because there were cheaper, serviceable guys out there (a lot of them!) and we paid probably twice as much for a high upside, big downside guy instead of a steady guy. Some of those guys you could have paid for two years with the second year as a supersub when Kieboom takes over second. Then you take the 6 million or so you saved by paying a cheaper 2B and sign the guy I really wanted, Adam Ottavino.
Rizzo doesn't get or doesn't respect BP pitchers. Whichever it is, the Nats have long suffered from BP maladies and this year, taking the "one or two of these guys will probably work out" approach leaves you really, really vulnerable when none of them do or they are even WORSE than you anticipated. Sipp is doing what he was supposed to, so far, but just Sipp. I am concerned about falling back early in a tough division with a tepid manager and a bad BP and a few players on D who seem to have lapses that they simply shouldn't. Not to mention situational hitting (not looking at Soto or Suzuki who executed today).
It's been proven bullpen wins games. What's the point of having 4 quality starters, if you have 1 quality relief arm, and the rest of the guys are garbage?? Corbin is a nice pitcher, but I'd rather have that $140 million for Kimbrel and a couple other quality bullpen arms, and than resign Gio for $1.5 million or less. Look at the 2014-15 Royals. They had 4 slightly above average to below average starters, with no one except Cueto (who they traded for in July of 2015) who was a dominant starter, but likewise, no one in the rotation was awful. But then look at who they had coming out of that bullpen gate: Wade Davis, Kelvim Herrera, Greg Holland, Luke Hochevar. And what did this team with average SP and lights out, lock down bullpen do?? They were only a historic Madison Bumgarner relief outing away from back-to-back World Series titles. What have the Nats and Indians done with the best rotation in the AL & NL?? Almost nothing, well at least the Indians actually won a couple postseason series.
Last off season trading for Herrera in the winter instead of June should've been the biggest off season priority, this year signing Miller & Kimbrel should've been the biggest priority. I know bullpen's are usually fickle year to year, but the better pitchers you have out there, the better chances you have to be successful. They are 0-2, and with a couple better moves they could very well be 2-0, or at worst case 1-1. Does Andrew Miller give up that single to Cano in game 1??
The bullpen thing i really don’t understand. I mean. If there’s one reason the Nats haven’t won a playoff series, it’s because they’ve never had anything vaguely resembling an elite bullpen. Most years it’s below average. I don’t understand why Rizzo doesn’t understand. In 2019 the bullpen is as important as the rotation. And every year Rizzo just shrugs and is like “let’s see what’s over here in the garbage pile.” It’s really a mystery. He’s not dumb. Is he just stubborn? And thinks his way of investing all the money in the rotation and none in the pen is the way to go, as opposed to every other contending team? Or is it organization-wide....because let’s face it, we’ve developed (and retained) zero effective relievers since 2012. I don’t think you can say that about any team in baseball. It’s uncanny. If anybody has the potential, like Vazquez and Treinen, it’s like there’s some rule that prevents them from excelling until they change jerseys. Do they not warm up in the Nats pen? It’s truly remarkable to watch. Every year. A dumpster fire in need of fixing. I mean....without making a move for Kimbrel, I truly believe it will be almost impossible to compete with teams like Philly and Mets, who each have two elite closer-types.
By the way now that the Brewers are going to officially be without Knebel for the year as he goes under the knife next week, Rizzo better pounce on Kimbrel before the Brewers do. Say what you want about him, but Kimbrel will be immediately better than anyone else they currently have in the bullpen right now with the exception of Doo. And at least with Kimbrel I'd be slightly more optimistic about the season. I agree with Jaycobb above me, without making a Kimbrel like move this is likely a 3rd place team at best behind the Phillies, and the Mets who actually made a bullpen overhaul in the offseason.
This is what I find funny: Opening Day, it was Miller and Grace who blew it. Thats on the manager for putting them in. But we all would agree that he should have put someone else in. Who? Rosenthal? Well he blew it yesterday. See, we can't have it both ways. These relievers need to find a way to do a FRACTION of what our starting pitchers have been doing for 3 freaking hours in a row. Get outs. The insanity for a guy to come in and give up four runs before recording an out means that you should be bagging groceries. End of discussion. Just pathetic. No offense to those who bag groceries.
Our crappy bullpen is a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't." At leave with Dave, every button he pushes seems to fail when he calls to the pen. It comes down to this. We have had one - count it: ONE - legit homegrown reliever since 2009 and its Drew Storen, who ironically is to blame for us not advancing in 2012 and 2014. Maybe throw Stammen in there? So 1 to 2 guys that we've developed who've had success in 10 freaking years. That is shameful and the blame falls on our player development.
But Herrera? He came here and sucked - who predicted that? Blame Rizzo too? I don't know about that...
The way this is going, if Kimbrel were here, he’d stink up the place as well. Just bad juju with this team...
They won today but Martinez has managed to pour gasoline on the bullpen and light it on fire multiple times. They need to sign Rendon to an extension, they need to sign Kimbrel now. First order of business though - they need a real manager. Call Dusty Baker, or call Davey Johnson, or call Joe Girardi, someone other than Martinez. He is just plain awful.
Jay:
What did Martinez do today that would require Dusty Baker to come back?
I feel like there are no good choices for Martinez out of the BP right now. Every arm he calls on fails.
And I agree with anon. Bullpen trouble is infectious, as is bullpen success. The hope here is that they come out with a clean slate mentality on Tuesday and get some relief success in that series. It's how it gets turned around.
Also bat Robles first.
That 9-4 in the lineup is so exciting to watch. Great job working counts and reaching base. It's a type of threat that we haven't seen in Washington. Batting Robles 9th cuts his number of ABs. As I understood it, the purpose of dropping him in the order was to remove some pressure to produce from the rookie. He doesn't look like he needs any help.
Xander Bogaerts is a pretty good Rendon comp, isn't he? 6 @$120 million.
Except that Bogaerts is 3 years younger and has almost no injury history and plays a more valuable position.
So how did he get $20 million per year and we're reading rumored 25+ million per year for Rendon?
Wasn't the original rumor 6 @ 150 milion for Rendon? Altuve's deal? Why is Bogaerts worth so much less than either of those two players? Anthony's had a second elite offensive season to Bogaerts' one, but Bogaerts did his at a younger age and has time to catch up.
I find this one puzzling.
Bryce looks more at home in Philly and with his new teammates than he ever looked in DC...wonder why
@sirc. It’s not that puzzling. XB is just not the same level of player as Altuve or Rendon. XB has never had an “elite” year (defined as an MVP contender/6+ WAR/top few at your position in baseball, etc.) IOW XB has never been worth 5 fWAR in a season in his career...multiple 3-4 WAR year. Rendon, meanwhile, has been worth 6+ fWAR (so edges of MVP consideration) 3 times already. XB has 17 career fWAR. Rendon has been worth 26 fWAR. (And yes WAR builds in whether you are at a difficult position, so XB gets an auto-bump for being a SS). XB is younger. But he’s just never displayed the same talent level as Rendon. He shouldn’t make as much money. In short, he’s a very good player but he’s not as good. Actually, a better comparable would be Trea Turner, who is probably ranked similarly to XB among SS in MLB (about a 4-5 WAR player as it stands right now)....that said, Turner has more talent than XB.... and probably has MVP upside if he puts together that .300, 20+HR, 70 SB, solid defense year we all know he can. But Rendon is closer to a Kris Bryant type level.
@Huzzah: Why do you think he looks more at home? Anybody would be excited. I do think they have more enthusiastic baseball fans in Philly who will go absolutely nuts cheering their team and crest an awesome atmosphere that Nats fans only manage for playoff games. I complain plenty about the FO and manager and players, but honestly, I go to baseball games all up and down the east coast....I’ve never attended games with a quieter crowd (meaning a crowd when the stadium is pretty full) than DC. Nats are still relatively new to the town, so fair enough. But I think Bryce is the type to enjoy that kind of atmosphere and people going nuts for him. As he should. (And as they should.) he’s a superstar. And I think he will probably spend the next few years making the Nats and their fans regretting not paying him.
Huzzah (from a different computer)
I agree that it might wear off if there is a slump or a losing streak...but as of now, as we all suspected, Bryce is obsessed with crowds and the spotlight, and philly fans are giving that to him in spades. Just look at their opening weekend crowds vs the nats opening weekend crowds. this seems to be more what he wanted all along. and his body language with his new teammates in the dugout...i mean he has a unique special handshake with every teammate already. maybe the excitement will wear off...i don't know. the difference just seemed stark to me at first glance.
Does either Fangraphs or bbref adjust the defensive component of their war calculation for positional difficulty. As in, a good RF can't be as valuable as a good CF. Or in this case 3B v SS. I don't see anything in either site's description of war that mentions it.
Since 2014, Rendon has 24.4 war and Bogaerts has 17.4.
But by their age 26 seasons, which is where Bogaerts is now, Rendon only had ~12 war.
Offensively they are similar, especially when comparing at age 26.
Rendon's additional value comes from elite defense, but at a position that is less valuable. And also he is older.
I don't think it's as big a stretch as you seem to think. A good shortstop is more valuable than a good third baseman. Rendon isn't good though, he's a great third baseman. But how do we determine whether great defense at third is more valuable than good defense at short?
I don't think they will get rid of Martinez and the Lerners have not shown any willingness to pay for a good experienced manager. Davey Johnson and Dusty Baker were both hired out of retirement. Maybe they can go with Jack McKeon. Anyway, I think we are stuck with Martinez for at least another year if not two. I would list the following as mistakes in 3 games: playing Zim all three games against RH pitching, leaving Max in the 8th inning of his first start to throw 109 pitches, allowing Max to hit for himself in the 7th inning of the same game, pulling Max and going with Justin Miller for Peter Alonso - at that point the mistake has already been made bringing him out for the 8th so leave him in to get Alonso, using Grace against Robinson Cano (one of our worst pitchers against their best hitter), he warmed up but did not use Sipp, Rosenthal, and Doolittle - so he used/burned everyone in the bullpen except Hellickson and Suero in the first game of the year, Rosenthal was awful in the second game so maybe that wasn't his fault but brought Barraclough in sort of slip shod - balked in a run, used everyone this day except Miller, Hellickson, and Doolittle, evidently told Rosenthal yesterday that he was coming in the game in the 8th and then left Sipp in to allow two runners on, pulled Rosenthal after 1 hitter??, went with Doolittle for a 5 out save in the 3rd game of the season - Doolittle said after the game that they were "pushing all of their chips into the center of the table" in the 3rd game of the season. If guys continually underperform for a manager then maybe it isn't the players. Dusty Baker was great at letting people know when they were going to get days off, when they were likely to pinch hit, when they were likely to pitch, etc. I get the impression that Davey is sort of flying by the seat of his pants. I think the game moves too fast for him and thus most of his moves are reactionary.
I could be wrong. I don't think he is going anywhere anytime soon. Hopefully, they'll sign Kimbrel or sort out the bullpen somehow.
Altuve's extension was 5/151 and Arenado's was 7/234 - those two are the neighborhood that Boras wants Rendon to live in and it's why 30 mil per year is being bandied about instead of 25. Bogaerts 6/120 is more like Bregman's 5/100. Rendon should get more than that for sure.
Post a Comment