So last year 55 of 55 "experts" picked the Nats to win the NL East. They were also oddly confident in the Nats to move forward in the playoffs - which I attributed to not wanting to be the one that missed out when the Nats actually won. Of course we all know what happened so take all this to be what it is - wild guesses. For most teams, injuries and surprise breakouts and busts will be the final deciders of how the season goes. Those things can't be predicted.
ESPN
NL East Champ : 13 of 31 (+9 WC)
NLDS winner : n/a
NLCS winner : 6
WS Champ : 3
YAHOO
NL East Champ :
NLDS winner :
NLCS winner :
WS Champ :
CBS SPORTS
NL East Champ : 4 of 5
NLDS winner : n/a
NLCS winner : 3
WS Champ : 0
USA TODAY
NL East Champ : 3 of 7 (+2 WC)
NLDS winner : 4 of 7
NLCS winner : 3 of 7
WS Champ : 2 of 7
SPORTS ILLUSTRATED
NL East Champ : 7 of 9
NLDS winner : n/a
NLCS winner : 4 of 9
WS Champ : 0
MLB.COM
NL East Champ : 27 of 5# (over 50 experts) (+8 WCs)
NLDS winner : n/a
NLCS winner : 12 of 5#
WS Champ : ?
OK not a lot going on so far. I'll update as necessary
TOTAL
NL East Champ : 54 of let's say 106, that's gotta be close
NLDS winner : 4 of 7
NLCS winner : 28 of 106
WS Champ : 5+ of 106
Basically currently the Nats are about 50/50 to win the East (with it seems like the Phillies a close second and the Braves and their quiet offseason basically pushed out of the picture). From there again there is this oddly high confidence in the Nats winning the NL at about 25%. That would be a fair percentage if EVERYONE picked the Nats to win the East, if you consider them about a 50% chance each series in the playoffs, but this has almost 50% of the guys picking the Nats to win the East also picking them to get to the series.
And with that oddly low percentage of WS winners (probably more like 6 - the mlb.com vote wasn't clear) it suggests the same thing as last year. These guys don't really believe in the Nats as a team, but instead don't really believe in anyone in the East and given that, picking the Nats to win is kind of the hot ticket. Don't want to miss out right? We'll see if this keeps up though as the rest of the picks come in.
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9 comments:
The ESPN rankings are moronic. I like the MLB.com ranking best (Nats on top!) lol.
But seriously, the ESPN Power Rankings are moronic. Why do publications with their "experts" continue to put these out? Oh, duh, eyeballs.
They have the Braves at #8, but finishing second in the division. Nats at #9, finishing third in the divison. Phillies at #10, finishing fourth in the divison, and the Mets at #14 winning the NL East with 87 wins!
This is so dumb i'm pulling my hair out! Why can't this space be devoted to real baseball talk!?
Reading a lot of Phillies articles on their outlook this season. Every single article is the same: "Bryce, Bryce, Bryce." In that regard, I don't envy that team in the slightest.
Best thing I love about this Nats team, is that there is no singular "assumed" leader. No defacto superstar that will inadvertently dictate where the ship is steered. Philly will live and die by Bryce, and I couldn't be happier that the Nats don't have to deal with that - I just don't think its good for the "next man up" mentality or team chemistry. And let me clarify, this is not Bryce's fault (but $330M might have something to do with it). Because though talented, one guy can't carry a baseball roster.
I would attribute the deep playoff runs to a healthy pitching rotation. Aside from 2014, the Nats never had a 100% healthy rotation in the playoffs - Stras was shut down in 2012 and injured in 2016 (and was injured after the trade deadline so the Nats were limited in waht they could do to replace him), and Scherzer pulled a hammy in his last start of the season in 2017 and didn't pitch until Game 3.
Here on Opening Day Eve, one would guess that if the Nats are good enough to win the NL East, it's largely due to good-to-great seasons from Max, Stras, Corbin, and Sanchez (or their replacements).
I agree that I think the NL East all comes down to pitching. The Braves are a good young team but their rotation has a lot of injury question marks to begin the year. The question for them is can they keep it close until their SP gets healthy. I think the Phillies boil down to pitching as well. Can Nola keep it up? Is Arrieta falling off the cliff? I saw something that he had an ERA of 7.7-something in spring training - granted its spring training but that is worrisome. How about Pivetta and the other guys? For the Nats - can Scherzer keep it up, Strasburg stay healthy, and is Corbin a bust or was last year an accurate prediction of his future? The Mets need their SP to stay healthy (not given after last year) and what happens with their ten player infield rotation.
I think Harper will most likely have a big year for Philly, but it is their SP that is most important. Also, can the Nats please sign Kimbrel. It would be a big move to lock up the bullpen and keep him away from Philly and Atlanta.
I don't know about Kimbrel. I get a Papelbon feeling out of him, to be honest. I'd love it if the nats got another good arm, but ponying up for Kimbrel doesn't excite me much.
I'm not too worried...and I'm ready for opening day!! I think they should wait and see with the BP...if the BP caves or underwhelms, it's not like Rizzo can't pick up someone before the trade deadline or at it. Like he did Kelvin Herrera which was quite a bit before the trade deadline, deals can get done during the season...
I find the folks at the Ringer to be incredibly knowledgeable on baseball and I also agree with their Power Rankings here: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/3/27/18282385/preseason-power-rankings-astros-red-sox-yankees-dodgers-brewers
@Anon. You should check out ESPN’s player power rankings. It’s even more idiotic.
@Ole PBN: I actually don’t think the Phillies will live and die by Bryce because their offense is so phenomenal (they almost certainly have the best lineup in division). They’ll have no trouble scoring even if Bryce slumps periodically. I actually think the player with the most pressure on him to succeed (in terms of team success) is Nola. Their pitching is in huge trouble if he’s not a beast.
Finally. I don't know if it was the "where is Bryce going" part of it, but this has felt like a longer (and more boring) pre-season than usual. Predictions from out of the Shenandoah Valley--Nats have every starter with 10+ home runs and more than half with 20+. I doubt anybody outside of Soto gets to 30, but the Nats have had their best success since '12 when they field a batting order that never gives opposing pitchers a batter off as opposed to having one or two stars and black holes from 7-9. I think the full rotation is the best in baseball and #1-3 are in the top 5. The bullpen will NOT get overused this year and the Nats finish with 94 wins, good enough to take the division. Hell, I'll even go out on a limb and say this is the year Strasburg starts 30 and gets his first Cy Young, edging out Max. Robles remains everything we've seen at each level and wins the ROY.
It's Opening Day. This is the year we've all been waiting for.
Chaos
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