Yesterday's win was punctuated by 3 homers; one by Robles, one by Soto, one by Kieboom. The interpretation by many hopeful that this season won't be another lost one, is that the kids are here and ready to take over. These three will carry the Nats with youthful exuberance to the promised land.The future has arrived!
And yet...
The Nats are still pretty old. While this number will go down with continued Kieboom at bats and the eventual return of Turner, the Nats sit older than league average for batting age (28.8 vs 28.6). Gomes is in his 31 season*, Suzuki 35, Zimm 34, Dozier 32, Kendrick 35, Eaton 30, Adams 30. Even the guys you thought of as young aren't really young anymore. Rendon will turn 29 in a month, MAT is 28, Difo 27. So while there is this true core of talent sitting around at under 22 there is a massive crater of talent between them and where the rest of the Nationals sit, on the downslope of the hill. Seven years between Robles and Rendon with only Turner manning the gates.
Now take that and strip away the good young players and you have the pitching staff, second oldest in the NL.The over 30 club includes Scherzer, Strasburg, Sanchez, and Hellickson. Doolittle, Grace, Sipp, Miller. Instead of being balanced by a group of talented early 20s, instead it's a mess of middling mid to laters, the youngest being Joe Ross who will be 26 in a couple weeks.
While Soto, Robles, and Kieboom are an exciting trio they are an island unto themselves. They can't keep up the winning when the current generation fades because they have no help. They aren't a vanguard because the Nats minor leagues are top heavy with Robles and Kieboom being the important pieces.
When the Nats first came up they were filled with young pieces Ramos, Espy, Zimm, Desmond, Bryce, Gio, ZNN, Stras, Clippard, Storen. Not a one over 27 in 2012 and a bunch of other pieces that weren't old. Of pieces that mattered only Werth, LaRoche, and Morse 30 or older. It wasn't a team with some exciting young players. It was a young team. That's what kept it up over the years. This? I don't see that. And while it's good to have something - and these guys definitely are something - well no team has nothing. It certainly is something to build around but then that begs the comment - why aren't they? Why are they pulling this "good enough" angle again aiming for 90 wins and a chance at the playoffs, where they could fall into 86 wins and a seat at home for October? If these are the guys to rebuild around then... well... rebuild.
But we'll see. The hopeful ones are saying this comeback might spark the Nats to a run. I guess, unlike the last comeback that was supposed to spark the Nats to a run.
*Age on July 1
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24 comments:
If only there had been a way to get a young player with a great bat this offseason.
I was looking into this a little this morning and while I'm sure Harper's research was much more thorough than mine, I think some of the mentioned numbers are arbitrary to make the point. That's the only choice here as you have to pick some arbitrary cutoff between old and young and between good (can help you win) and bad.
One of things that struck me is that while there are a lot of old guys, they're at the end of their contracts. Over the next few years some of the bloated contracts will steadily come off the books while control of the young guys are still under control. It's not going to be a mess.
To me, the question really comes down to this: Can the Nats find a way to replace Max Scherzer's productivity? He's the old guy that's sticking around and then will suddenly disappear that matters.
This team will succeed or fail over the next few years based primarily on Scherz, Stras, Corbin, Doo, Rendon, Turner, and the three kids. To me that looks like a core that is balanced from the age point of view.
I think the reason why you see such a large "crater" of talent from 22-24 to 29+ is because the Nats traded their prospects during this time for guys who could help them make a WS push. Now in hindsight, this was wrong, as the Nats still haven't won a playoff series. But at the time the moves made sense, and I still think, if we did not know the future, that I would make those trades all over again if given the opportunity. You gotta maximize talent within windows, and the Nats did that.
I agree with Jon that the turnover shouldn't be too bad $$ wise because of older players coming off big contracts. The issue is whether the Nats can stay competitive during the turnover, or whether they need to do a full rebuild. In other words, are the 3 kids + Turner + whichever older players remain enough? For this, I'm not sure. They 100% have to resign Rendon. Third basemen like him don't grow on trees, and they need Kieboom to play 2nd. Then they still need a 1B, longterm catcher, possibly a corner OF depending on Eaton's decline being slow or sharp, at least one SP (if not two depending on Strasburg's decline being slow or sharp), and bullpen arms. That's still a lot.
Honestly they should be playing better this year.
They need to hit on some of these risky TJ-type pitchers they're drafting. I suspect they don't use technology enough regarding these prospects, or have coaching that's willing to implement it. Just developing players a little better would help, but at least they're doing a lot better in the Dominican Republic now. It wouldn't kill them to make proper bids on a few Asian players either.
I wonder if they would pay out enough to Girardi to get him to come here?
I think Quimby has it right. There is a core to build around --- the rest of the contracts will be coming off the books or are trade pieces. The 2019 Nats cannot be the 2012 Nats --- Rizzo is doing his best to keep the window open.
Fans should rightly be excited about Robles, Soto and Kieboom. Few teams field 3 electric players under 21 with such talent at the same time. With Rendon, Trea, Eaton and Adams and the pitching starters there is a great core.
So far, the team has been treading water. Turner injury. Dozier, Zimmerman and MAT slow starts. Poorly formed bullpen. This is all coming to an end. Fedde and Ross could really help reform the pen; Bear Claw, Wander, Miller, Grace and Doolittle are good pieces.
The infield seems the least of their worries. If Kieboom is legit, and so far that seems fair to assume, then you look at Rivera as the next young infielder to find room for, if they can keep Rendon. That also allows them to move Rendon to 1st if his defense declines and they need to tack on years to keep him, although unless they extend Turner, Kieboom/Rivera might be playing SS by then. That's less daunting than pretty much every other area. Even if it all works, someone learns the OF.
I think they need to stop aspiring to be the Braves and sign some of the Cardinals developmental guys. I don't think they've ever had to tank to stay relevant. Hasn't it been about 40 years since they really stunk?
Joe Girardi managed just 1 World Series win in his 10 years with the Yankees. (The YANKEES, for heaven's sake.)
If Girardi took the job in Washington, the usual suspects would be screaming "Bring Back Dusty!" by the All-Star break.
blovy8:
Rivera? Who's that?
From The Athletic team rankings (Nats=14) today:
"Washington is middle-of-the-league in just about every category: runs scored (14th), runs allowed (13th), batting average, both for (13th) and against (19th). So it should be no surprise to find them middle-of-the-pack here as well.
“The Nats: Just Okay!”"
I think blovy8 means Garcia.
JH - Shame none was available.
JQ / Ndread - I think the big difference is you an almost always find a bat when needed but pitching is much harder. So Gio/ZNN/Stras cornerstone and the savvy Max signing is a better foundation than Soto/Robles/Kieboom. In 2 years they may be hitting their prime but who will be pitching? 36 yo Max? 32 yo Stras doesn't sound old until you realize he hasn't pitched a full season since 2014. That's what's going to hold this team back.
mike k - that's valid for pitching (though questionable how much help they would be if kept) but offensively less so. Just a long record of poor drafting
Blovy8 - one thing - fans seem to be very secure "THESE ARE THE GUYS" Soto is doing well, but not exactly following up his freshman season and is tough in the OF. Robles is striking out at a 30% clip. Kieboom might have the same proclivity. Don't assume 3 stars here
blovy8 SM - I think we'll settle for a playoff series win right now
Yeah, I meant Garcia.
It looks like something to build around. Just looking at the prospects there are a few arms that look like something. Certainly Will Crowe looks pretty good. Borque, Garcia, Romero. Those guys all seem like legit prospects. Maybe, maybe not. I’m actually a little surprised that Borque hasn’t gotten any mention as a potential call up. I know he’s in AA but since he’s moved to the pen full time in 218 he’s been killing it. I would be surprised if he doesn’t crack the bigs this year.
You look at 2021 and beyond:
If Crowe continues to perform...maybe a rotation based around Corbin, Ross, Crowe, with an older Stras, and an on-his-last-leg Scherzer might be pretty good. Maybe not best in the bigs rotation stuff like we have kinda wanted the past couple of years, but pretty passable. With a Seth Romero, James Borque, and fill-in-the-blank RP and 5,6, &7 starters. Not too terrible. Competitive. A lot of ifs, but you can kinda see the plan they have.
Offensively, it’s a little less murky. Soto, Robles, FA corner OF. Rendon (HOPEFULLY), Kieboom, Turner, Garcia (maybe super super sub middle IF/corner OF). Throw in a FA catcher, and an old lefty slugger (Adam LaRoche, Matt Adams, Adam Lind) type. (Man the Nats like 1B with the name Adam). That projects to be a good core.
I dunno. While they’re not YOUNG, you see a path to a competitive roster. Of course it never works that way 100%, but with some smart moves you catch a whiff of a plan. I dunno. I like it
Well, if you don't get production from your top prospects, it's pointless to even try to compete, because you have to pay more than everyone else to win. What are we supposed to do, expect Rizzo to find several undervalued free agents and fleece three teams a year in trades? While this ownership group is willing to spend 200 million, you've got to reload, not tank. It's close to enough of a core for them to keep trying. But they've got to get something out a few more pitchers like Ross and Fedde. Just because Houston got everything right, there's no reason to expect the Nats to do that among the 6-8 teams that would be doing it at the same time, especially since you'd be admitting you screwed up your own-tank driven window by not even winning a playoff series. There would almost have to be a new GM hired. I think it's an easy bet that will be someone worse than Rizzo at the overall job.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Soto will hit higher than .255, because he won't keep striking out more than a quarter of the time. He proved he can hit soft stuff in Japan, he just needs more experience with the new pattern he's getting. But if I'm wrong, and he just keeps hitting like this that would be ok with me because Statcast tells me his expected OBA is 10 points higher than another 40HR,.255 guy who gets walked some, with cruddy defense who used to have his job, but is a "bargain" at 25 million a year more for a crapload of years.
Maybe it's early to be looking at 11th in attendance, but take a good look at the company being kept - Miami, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Arizona. The record is important. If the losing continues this season, in addition to the complaints about not signing Harper so that there would be "a reason to go", there will be the "DC isn't a baseball town" story regurgitated. It's a slippery slope, so the playoffs are a necessity.
Everyone saying they have to sign Rendon must have been in a coma the last 12 months. Kieboom will start at 2B/3B next year, they'll get a vet filler for the other IF position for 1-2 years on the cheap (Neil Walker type) until Garcia is ready.
There is no pitching help coming
This almost seems like an argument to tear it down and start over. They've got a few young position players, but the pitching side looks rough. I know some might think this is crazy, but I could see a mini-sell-off being a good idea. Deal all the old guys you can at the break and reload. There's a good number of them who'll be FA anyway.
They have to sign Rendon. Way more than they did Harper.
...zzzzzzzzzzzz...
(Also Garcia is far from a given and is several years away)
They’re being really aggressive with Garcia since he’s already at AA. He’s struggling now, but he’s still 18.
If they are seriously out of it by July 1, selling off some older guys makes sense. Guys like Howie, Dozier, even Adams (again!) could get some prospects. If things look REALLY bleak, trading Doolittle (hate to see it) could get you several prospects. And last year, they held on to Bryce, fearing they wouldn't resign him if he had his feeling hurt by being traded. If the same scenario presents itself--an unsigned Rendon looks to fetch a good package, they need to either get real about what it will cost to sign him and then DO it, or they need to decide to let him walk and cash in his value for prospects. They seem to have issues with making certain kind of decisions. Apparently paying starting pitchers huge money is not a problem, but paying practically anyone else is. Most teams see those big pitching contracts as more of a risk than the everyday player contracts. On the other hand, the Nats don't develop many starting pitchers, so maybe that's the reason.
Alumni Watch:
By the way, anyone notice that Roark looks much slimmer these days? He's being very Tanner, averaging exactly 5 innings per game, but has the ERA down to 3.24. Beard is trimmer, too!
In other and far more shocking news, Pedro Severino just matched his Nationals career total of homers (set in 105 games) in just his 14th game with the O's as he hit #4 tonight. Hmmm...
@Harper 2 points. First, the old guys are all at the end of their contracts, so that won’t hamstring them looking forward. 2. You say they have “something” but all teams have something. Not really. There’s a reason it’s been like 20 years since a team has 3 kids under 21 start in a game (and same with them homering in same game). Because it’s not league normal to have 3 all star type talents this young. Of course some teams have more VOLUME of guys who can contribute and are under like 24, but this isn’t like...routine. The problem as you say is that the Nats have more important players over 28 than under. Way more. And so I WOULD rebuild around these 3 and Turner. They may do it starting at the AS break. Because in terms of this* season, I don’t believe this is a playoff team or actually anywhere terribly close to a playoff team. The lineup is incredibly thin. The rotation is average or slightly above average unless people start pitching differently. And then the bullpen is worst in the sport. I think it’s far more likely that the Nats finish below 86 wins than above 86 wins. I would bet on the 80-84 range. A lot of things seem to already be going wrong, and far fewer are going right (honestly, I can barely think of anything that is going better than simply expected. Max looks like he’s taken a step back. Stras doesn’t look right. Corbin is as advertised. Hellickson and Sanchez are worse than expected and we expected bad. The pen is hideous. Who has performed better than expected at the plate? Robles is obviously incredibly talented with more pop than I expected but also raw and uneven. Soto has taken a step back. Whether it’s a big step or a slight one I don’t know. The over 30 club looks utterly dead. Eaton has become a bad defense singly Joe...IOW a player who is not starter caliber on a contender. Rendon I guess has exceeded expectations but he’s hurt. Maybe when they get him and Turner back things will change? But everything about this team suggests playoffs ain’t happenin. Yeah it’s early but not a good vibe all around. I would most definitely try to flip Max, Stras, Rendon, Doolittle, etc at deadline (everybody but Turner and the 3 kids,)
They'll need to sign Turner to an extension or trade him now, he'll likely be in his walk year by the time they're good again. He's probably worth the most of anyone over 21.
I don't think the plan was ever to sign Bryce, it was to make it look like they wanted to sign him. That way, fans would blame him and not the team when he walked. Trading him and having him turn down the offer to re-sign would have created the narrative of "alienating" him with the trade, making it the team's fault. I'm also guessing it's why there wasn't much of an attempt to extinguish the idea of him as selfish, immature jerk that bubbled up in the press. Then they offered a crappy deal dressed up a good-faith offer that he reasonably turned down and got away with it. Soto having a good year and Robles looking good in AAA took some of the sting off it for fans, even though it would probably have been Eaton that Bryce replaced.
My guess is they'll keep Rendon. He's billed as a Solid Guy, and there was a narrative of
needing to choose between keeping Bryce and keeping Rendon. Plus, he's about to enter his decline years and that is exactly when the Nats like to pull out the big bucks to lock in the long deals (Zim, Werth, Strasburg, probably Max and Corbin).
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