And like the Aerosmith song - this is terrible.
The Nats didn't "survive" with a 4-6 run I wanted. They didn't collapse a 2-8 run I feared. They split the difference and pulled out a 3-7, "things are bad but there is a glimmer of hope" run that of course they would run. Let's look at the Nats season so far
They are 16-24. At 40 games they are at the quarter turn of the season. That's a lot! But it's also not too much to recover from depending on where you stand. As always it's instructive to find the record you think is necessary to get to the playoffs/division win, and what it would take to get there.
The division - The Phillies are on a 95-96 win pace but they've also played maybe the weakest schedule in baseball. Let's say we think then they'll slow down and... 93 wins will be enough to take the division outright. That means in the remaining 122 games the Nats need to go 77-45. That's a .631 winning percentage or a 102-103 win pace. That's a tall ask.
What about Wild Card - The second wild card right now is in the hands of the Pirates on an 87-88 win pace. That's not an uncommon 2nd WC win total. Let's say 88 wins. So the Nats need to go 72-47, or a .590 winning percentage. That's a 95-96 win pace. That's tough, too!
Basically however good you want the Nats to be they have an anchor of a 16-24 start to overcome. If you want them to be .500 by Game 80 (June 26th) they have to go 24-16 over that time. That's certainly possible! Six teams did it in the first 40 games (and the Phillies can join them with a win in their next game). But again - that's to be .500. Then they have to be however many OVER .500 for the rest of the year to hit your target. You wanted 91 wins? That's 20 over. So they have to be 20 over in the remaining 82 games. 51-31. That's 100+ win baseball. They've set up the year so they have to be one of the best teams nearly every month for the rest of the year.
The saving grace remains the mediocre NL East. IF the Phillies fall the Braves and the Mets seem like .500 teams. It's likely in this scenario that someone wins the division with 87/88 wins. That's great - but it's also no better than the Wild Card situation. But the mediocrity opens up another possibility that it could it be under that. 84 or 85 wins? It doesn't seem like a big difference but in the end every game matters.
That makes these next two Mets series important. The Nats can force the issue by taking a few more from the Mets than would be expected. Win 5 of 7. Set up these series. Let the Cubs one go. Of course they aren't doing that and Max, who could pitch twice against the Mets is only going once. Oh well, maybe next season!
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I don't understand why you want Scherzer to pitch more, they never score in his games.
Phillies currently projected for 87 wins, Nats 83, per everyone's favorite (hated?) website. So just a two-game swing in rest-of-season expectation for each team (Phillies come in 2 games under expectation, and Nats come in 2 games over) would result in a tie.
Probably not going to happen, but crazier things have happened. Since the season isn't over yet, why not hope?
A man who rips on Aerosmith, is a man who must have good taste in music. Three claps. Sweet Emotion is pretty good, though.
This team is not much fun to watch right now. Was bummed that I missed the entire Brewers/Dodgers series due to travel, but after seeing the results each morning, I'm glad I didn't waste my time. This team can never put it all together, and it's pretty frustrating. First we were hitting, but the pen was terrible. Then it was the injuries. Now the pen has played a little bit better, it doesn't matter because we can't hit.
blovy8 - sound logic. Trade Max
GCX - As bad as the Nats have been (and they have been both bad and unlucky) the lack of any NL East team to be GOOD means they only have to get from bad to ok. The bar has been lowered.
Ole PBN - I don't hate ALL Aerosmith but they were popular for a good decade putting out some flat-out terrible music. You can take or leave the rock, but the 90s power ballads are things you play loud at holed up dictators to get them to surrender.
They aren't fun are they? I think because they are playing pretty mistake filled baseball and Soto/Robles aren't as exciting as we hoped. What is there to look forward to right now - Max starts and when Rendon is up basically
Guns N' Roses are another band that most of their hit songs should have stopped around the 3-minute mark, instead of riding an annoying/repetitive riff into oblivion, complete with whistles, tambourines, triangles, and cowbells.
Soto on TV still grabs my attention, but its so apparent that he's getting fed breaking balls outside the zone (especially 12-6 hammers in the dirt), and he keeps swinging away. I wouldn't have a problem if never swung at another curve ball, until it gets to two strikes, then he has to protect. But him putting himself in an early hole swinging at these pitches is almost Zimmerman-like. Wish he would stop.
Also, regarding the Nats decision to have Scherzer miss the first Mets series, it actually works out evenly in the end. For the remainder of May, we have 9 important games (MIA is important, but strictly looking at the teams we need to make up ground on): 7 vs. NYM and 2 vs. ATL. Scherzer/Stras/Corbin pitch 5 of those games either way you look at it. But if it's Max we're concerned with, yeah, he only pitches one of those nine games as it stands right now, instead of a potential two games.
THEY ARE ZERO FUN TO WATCH THIS SEASON!!! I MEAN THERE IS NOTHING TO WATCH!!! THE LERNERS SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF THE PRODUCT THEY PUT OUT THIS YEAR!!!!
I'm not ready to "officially" call it, but I'd say they have something like a 30% chance of making the playoffs at this point. I'll follow the box scores until they are able to somehow get back to .500. Otherwise, I'm filling my evenings with something else. Like you said Harp...maybe next year.
This season is about toast, though I will say....I forgot/didn't know they were playing Thursday Night, so I spent the rest of that series not tuning into any of the games for a variety of reasons, none of which are important, and they did actually manage to win another game out in LA. Maybe I was the problem?? The Cubs series is almost a guaranteed loss I don't see how they win 2 games against that team, but for the Mets series I'll even put mild expectations: 4-3 vs. the Mets, 1-2 against the Cubs. I won't watch either of those games because you know superstitions, but if they can win more than they lose against the Mets and somehow win 2 of 3 against the Cubs I won't watch/tune into another game this year because then we'll know who the real problem to this $#!t sandwich season was...………….Max David.
Let's be constructive here for a change. There is a draft coming up which means that the Nats will draft a pitcher in the first round who they can package with another couple of pitchers and get a first or second baseman.
The only reason to watch this team is because you suffer from insomnia and want to avoid the side effects of Ambien.
The Phils are looking every bit like a division winner, in spite of Wonder Boy hitting .220 lol. It’s going to be a tall task for us, as going on a 8-2 stretch is already nearly impossible - Phillies in turn will have to go like 3-7 during that same time, which doesn’t look likely.
Yeah, think of the other dominoes that would fall if the standings were the same and Harper was getting paid for 13 years hitting like this! Why did they sign him, why couldn't they have another buidling block starting pitcher like Corbin? Scherzer is getting old, Strasburg will opt out, and then who do they have? Robles is MAT revisited, Soto can't hit curve balls, Kieboom went kaboom playing short, and Doolittle can't pitch more than 50 innings without getting hurt - we're doomed!
I think probably we're just doomed regardless. It's DC baseball.
Forget it, Jake. It's Natstown.
It's harder to make up lost ground when the back of the rotation is so bad. #4/#5 boasting eras well over 5 would seem to make it tricky to reel off a win streak. Lot of pray for rain needed. How do you fix the pen and back starters, especially with Hellickson so dependent on the pen to go long.
The Nats should sit down with Rendon, make their best pitch and if they can't get a deal done, they should start selling pieces now. Who knows, if they make good moves, they could have an excellent team in 2020. The bones are there, but they've dug themselves too deep of a hole for this year to make a run with this bullpen and back of the rotation. Deal Rendon and deal any of the fringe pieces you can get value for.
I'm with you JW. June 1 is decision day to me. If things aren't looking up by then, you start selling.
Problem there is what is "looking up"? My opinion is within striking distance of .500. That means rattling off a 13-4 or 12-5 run to end the month. Do I think they'll do that? No. So that means sell off, sooner rather than later
Once we finish the NYM/CHC/NYM series, take a look at this schedule between May 24 and July 7:
MIA (4)
ATL (2)
CIN (3)
CHW (2)
SD (4)
CHW (2)
ARI (4)
PHI (4)
ATL (3)
MIA (3)
DET (3)
MIA (3)
KC (3)
That has to be the easiest schedule in MLB during that period. Now, are we screwed up enough that we could go .500 or even worse? Yep. But we also could put up a big number and we back in the race by Independence Day.
Looking back, it seems to me the Nats had some luck come their way with the second-choice signing of Murphy who had two excellent years, the Turner trade (luck plus skill on Rizzo's part, but that first half-season was amazing), as well as Roark in 2016 (I'd call it luck that Roark blossomed into a good starter for awhile), and Gio's last hurrah in 2017. Plus Zim had that one bounceback year.
I think most of the above were unexpected at the time, and were keys to a team that won the division. Now there's been zero luck--Dozier, Rosenthal, Sanchez, injuries, and some bad choices. They aren't a team that can make it as currently constituted.
I'd say losing Murphy, essentially for most of 2018, and Zim, Roark, and Gio all regressing simultaneously has been something Rizzo just hasn't had an answer for. Add the lousy BP configuration and management subtract Harper and sprinkle in the injuries and you are a .400 team.
JW and Anon:
I think a smart selloff (unlike last year's muddled one) could reposition the Nats for 2020 or at least 2021. Hate to say it, but Doo could bring in some talent, and I wouldn't hesitate to trade Rendon (Boswell says Rendon should not be traded and wants to stay, FWIW) if they look unlikely to get it done. They held on to Harper, and probably lost a couple of key building blocks as a result. And he did what everyone thought he would do...he left anyway.
So: trade Doo, Rendon, Howie, MAT and maybe one of the catchers if it's the right package. (You'll note that I stopped short of trading Max, but maybe that has to happen too, as painful as that would be). The Yankees flipped Chapman and Miller and loaded up as a result and were right back in it--they got Heller, Frazier, and Torres who are all on the big club. Time to stop draining the farm system.
What farm system? It's already been drained. Other than Kieboom, is there anyone in the farm system that is expected to be a Major League player?
Johnny Callison--
You can trade Doo, Rendon, Howie, MAT and one of the catchers. But for the sake of argument, who do you believe the Nats would get back to make them contenders in 2020?
(Asking for a friend.)
P.S. When the Yankees traded Chapman to the Cubs, the Yanks turned around and re-signed him as a free agent. Can't imagine the Lerners doing that even with a valuable piece like Rendon.
Crowe, Denaburg, and Garcia currently project to be adequate major leaguers, but none of them are close to MLB promotion. It's very thin.
John O'Connor: NOTHING is "easy" for this Nats team.
They are I believe, still the only team that has lost a series to the Marlins this year. They'll probably still find a way to lose 15-20 games in that stretch. This is just not a good team.
When you look at the Nats very thin farm system, there's a strong argument to be made for tearing the whole thing down and trading everyone. Crowe, Denaburg and Garcia are probably a couple of years away. Scherzer, while very good, is likely on the decline as is Strasburg, so basically the Nats have Soto, Robles and Turner, plus Kieboom in the next year or two, who are in or heading into their prime. 4 players does not make a team, especially when all of your prospects play the same 2 positions and the whole bullpen needs to be rebuilt. I'm not totally sold on the idea, but I think there's a case to be made for it if the goal is a World Series and not just a good team that goes to the playoffs every other year.
Just heard Rizzo on the fan before taking my walk (working at home today). He was all over the place, which is a sign that things are very bad. One moment he said something like "doesn't matter if we have all our starting players back, we can't win if we don't have the right attitude," the next minute he was back to blaming the injuries, then he was saying they're doing some sort of analysis about why they are losing all those series openers (too many meetings or meetings at the wrong time--any way, doesn't Davey supervise that stuff? Sometimes it's like DM is just a figurehead and Rizzo is the actual manager). He said we are a championship organization with a roster that can win the division and go deep in the playoffs, then he said that the team was able to play with the Phillies and Mets (cited team record against since 2012 as if that were relevant today). Defending his legacy.
JWL is right--thin farm, razor thin in pitching. We traded away a LOT of organizational pitching depth (for ready to go relievers). We underestimated how lucky the Murphy signing was (best two years of his career), how Zim's 2017 was a one-off, the impact of the Wieters signing, and how deep SP used to be--five starters good enough to be no worse than a #3. Add two really bad personnel moves in off-season (Rosie and Dozie--when I see the other relievers and 2Bs who were available for similar or far less money, I shake my head--Dietrich/Schoop at 2B; Holland, Ottavino, and others at BP), and this season is probably the one where we realize the window closed. And I think it would have closed with or without Harper. And DM doesn't help at all.
Rizzo needs to recognize that this team is not going anywhere and sell off--Doolittle would get you some good players, as would Max or even Stras. And maybe MAT and Howie get you some depth. Heck, I'd even trade one of the catchers and bring up Spencer K.
I'm moving back to DC in a month. I hope they keep Max for a while since I've never seen him play live before. It would be great if he retires as a Nat and hits the big milestones like 3000 Ks/200 wins while here.
The economist/soulless automaton in me knows they probably won't win as they're currently constructed and most players are going to decline even more, so they need to start trading. The fan in me wants to keep seeing cool players doing cool things.
I would like to see 4 of the 8 starting position players homegrown/came up through our system: Soto, Robles, Turner, Kieboom. Check. (not including Rendon, who will be playing elsewhere in 2020. Hope I'm wrong).
I'd like to see 2-3 of our starting pitchers homegrown as well: Strasburg. That's it. Maybe Crowe/Denaburg? This is a super high cost and sucks up the bulk of your payroll if you have to solve it via FA.
Bullpen: This is where almost the entire group, save for your prized closer needs to come from in-house: ... no one. Glover? Bourque? This is the biggest problem. Our inability as an organization to produce quality relief arms. This problem loses games, and the fix empties our pockets or depletes our farm system.
Bench: can be made up primarily of FA's - not a big deal.
So there you have it. It looks like we've had a good run at producing position players, but our pitching is pretty sparse. Especially, considering that is all we've drafted with our 1st/2nd round picks since Rizzo has been at the helm.
Our money (our mountain of cash) should be spent on an ace starter (Max), which is what we did and I'm okay with that. And on an impact bat if it didn't come from Fresno/Harrisburg. We should be able to develop the back-end of our rotation in-house. We don't. We should be able to develop the majority of the bullpen in-house. We don't. We should be able to develop a significant part of our lineup in-house. We have. So our player development has underperformed in 2/3's of our team. If that is Rizzo's fault - consider this the first time I'm unhappy with him. Because from here, that's all I can do :)
I don't see any reason to trade Max or Stras. First, both have been pitching well this year. Sure, Max has a relatively high ERA and his WHIP is above 1 (but not by much), but the WHIP is still excellent and his K/9 is very high. Given the lack of run support, I think he may be trying to be "too perfect." Regardless, Max is fine and has no history of injury. Even if he starts to decline, he should still be a good pitcher for several more years, if not a #1. And then he can be a closer. I'm also thinking that there would be hesitation by other teams to take on his big contract, because the Nats have already benefited from the early years, and a new team would be getting a potentially diminished Max.
Same goes for Strasburg, except of course for his history of part-year injuries. Stras is still a really good pitcher, and there just aren't that many really good pitchers in baseball.
I would however, trade Rendon at the trade deadline (maybe even earlier). He should bring a good return. If the Nats really love him, they can re-sign him when he is a free agent (although I seriously doubt that would happen, and I think Rendon would be very unhappy with the Nats if they rent him out for the second half of the year).
Zim comes off the books at the end of this year, so that gives the Nats some room under the salary cap to sign a good player.
Good points from everyone on why we shouldn't trade Max and Stras. I think Max has become the identity of the franchise, and it would hurt a LOT to trade him. I guess it depends on how soon the Nats can be competitive again. If it looks like it will take more than two years to get there, I'd have to think about trading Max. Detroit traded Verlander in a similar situation, but they appear to have been much further away from competing. Then again, we all thought the Nats were closer to very good than they are; how do we know they're just one or two years away? The thin farm makes me think they are further away (maybe 2022?).
But I doubt the Lerners would trade Max. That would seem like a real capitulation. I don't think they have it in them to be quite that ruthless. Not sure whether that's good or bad.
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