The Nats are not really at a crossroads. This season is all but lost and they need to focus on what comes next. Primarily that means either firing Davey or saying flat out they aren't firing Davey. But secondarily (and I mean that only in a timing sense here - it is the primary concern) they need to figure out what has gone wrong with a team that looked to win over 90 games and make the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years. Flopping around .500 is bad luck. This? This means there are structural issues.
What isn't looking like a problem for next year? The three aces are as promised. No one is lighting th world on fire here but they all have ERAs between 3.00 and 3.50 and have no reason to believe those ERAs are flukily good. (in fact Stras and Max might deserve lower numbers - that's what happens when the pen let's every runner you leave on base score). Doolittle, despite the blip, has to be seen as a reliable back end reliever. Soto, while not hitting as well as you'd hope, is still doing well and is a cornerstone to build around if not someone who might carry a team. Robles is almost in the same position, though his K-rate gives you pause and the less than impressive defense adds time to that stoppage, you still would start this guy in CF next year and expect an average league performance. Turner has come down from his hot start but history suggests he's an average bat with great speed and can handle short. One less things to worry about.
That's a pretty solid core! Three aces, which any team would love to have. A reliever, Two OFs (one might be iffy but he's there in CF) and a SS. It covers some tough spots like SS and CF. But of course that isn't enough. They need to (1) find at least one star bat, if Soto gets back to MVP type, if not two, if he doesn't (2) make sure no more than 1 spot in the line-up is a hole to start the year (3) add a couple reliable arms to the pen and (4) get a good #4 and (5) either get something to eat innings in #5, or flesh out the bullpen to be reliable up to the last arm.
I'll note now, you can probably get away with (and probably will have to get away with given the limited solutions) catcher. The siutation isn't ideal but the two headed monster is in fact working out in some fashion with Suzuki hitting average.Assuming they don't both suck at year's end there's your catcher plan for next season.
That leaves 1B, 2B, 3B, OF, 4th SP, 5th SP, and at least two more RP - probably three if you don't make one of those other RP a star. (along with not leaving the bench and deep pen terrible but we'll ignore that for now)
OK what can the Nats do?
1) The No-Rebuild. Basically you resign Rendon. There's your 3B. There's your MVP bat. You resign Howie. There's your 1B and decent bat there. You sign/trade for an OF. (Dickerson?) Sign/trade for a 4th starter. (Chacin?). Sign a couple relief arms (Jansen and Stammen?) Trade Eaton for another one. And do #5. Let Kieboom have his full start and hope this works out.
This would be very Nats (well if you replace Jansen with say... Jeremy Jeffress) and assuming Soto picks up a little you'd look at the team and go - ok - it's probably around 90 wins and then hope the issues in the bench and pen don't come into play .
2) The No-Rebuild Plus - Do the above but then fill out the bench and pen with legit arms that you like all but the last one or last guy on the bench. The goal for either of the first two is contending in 2019. The first plan is to do it the way the Nats usually do. Decent solutions where needed, cheap around the margins, hoping those things don't get exposed. The second way is more of an all-in, at least as much as you can with limited resources to deal and a FA market that's generally old.
3) The Quick Rebuild - you trade Rendon and Doolittle and others for a couple others for guys ready next year or the year after. You do something like sign Cole and Jansen in the off-season and note you are ready to spend for a bat next off-season depending on where greatest need is but really you are eyeing guys like Springer and Betts to fill in the OF gap and hoping Garcia and Keiboom can fill in the IF. The idea here is 2020 would look like an 80-85 win team but with some strengths that could find the team catchy a lucky break into the playoffs and with an obvious path forward for Max's last contract year.
4) The Long Rebuild - You trade those guys and you trade Max. There is no real plan here other than hoping it comes together for 2021 or 2022. You don't sign anyone this off-season but instead plan to use 2020 to evaluate the guys you got in trade along with Kieboom, Garcia and any starting or relieving arm you even sort of like who ends 2019 in A+ ball or above. You are hoping it works out that next off-season (after 2020) you start filling holes with FAs but if not you are prepared to wait a year after that, possibly now dealing Turner if Garcia and Kieboom both look like major leaguers because he'd only be around definitely in 2022
The No-Rebuild Plus is probably the way most guys would go here. But it's the most expensive going top notch in some places (Jansen) and leaving no holes. The Long Rebuild is what most "experts" will probably suggest (hell they may suggest trading Stras which makes little sense to me) but all it guarantees is that the Nats won't win soon and are ok with not winning later. I assume the Nats are going to be the Nats though and look at #1 as the likely future (sans Jansen).
17 comments:
I don't see how you don't do the Long Rebuild assuming you can get returns. Let teams blow you away or don't trade. So kind of either a short rebuild or a long rebuild depending on what you can get for Max.
On the other hand, if you trade Max, you risk losing the first Curly W in the Hall. How much is that worth? The odds of a World Series are so low, maybe take the sure win of a Hall of Fame National instead? That's anathema to how 99.99% of sports fans think but I guess I just see winning a playoff series as near impossible now so go for what you can get.
I guess I favor a short rebuild? The first two options seem like a good way to repeat 2018 and 2019.
@Harper - So what kind of "hair on fire, get the torches and pitchforks out" posting is this?
Seriously, reading comments (here, WaPo, etc) make one almost certain that DM won't be wearing the red by, or shortly after, tonight. And a bunch of the Nats will be on the next train out of town.
We then read our post and get some pretty decent reasoning for several options. Since you didn't say which YOU think is the right way to go, and since it doesn't really matter what we think . . .
What do you think the Lerners and Whizzo will do? Are they just consulting with each other, or do you think they're pulling in some baseball brain trust to discuss exactly what you've listed, then will (or won't) go with what said 'trust comes up with?
Regardless, we might have some crappy baseball behind us, and maybe before us, but the shenanigans might make for some entertaining inside baseball (pun intended).
I think option #1 is best. As a fan, I'm against rebuilds. Why should I give your organization my time and money when you know the product sucks? You're the billionaires, not me. Go spend money.
Finally being rid of the anchor that is Zim's contract will be good. I'd like to see Rendon get signed. He's been top-notch, even with his extended trips to the DL. Will the team spend in quality relievers? Almost certainly not. Think of 2015. Or 2017, when the bullpen was almost this bad during the first couple months.
Option #1 is the best. But they have got to re-sign Rendon. That should be the #1, #2 and #3 priorities. Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin are a Big 3 that almost any team would envy. A core of Soto, Robles, Turner, and Rendon is very strong. You can build a playoff team around that. If we can get something for Eaton, we should take it -- but he's okay and cheap, so no problem if he stays. We have to get our second choice free agent for 2B (the next Daniel Murphy), and we can certainly find someone to play 1B. So, 2 more serviceable starters and a re-built bullpen. Oh, and a new manager!
I like the quick rebuild. Unlike just reloading you might luck into some franchise talent (occasional all star) that sticks around and helps build identity. Trading Rendon means losing whatever the QO gets you, so the return better be good. Sucks to lose Doo too. Hell, maybe Rendon would appreciate being traded from this year's dumpster fire and would re-sign in the off season. Gets him a nice three months in a WS chase, probably in a big city, before returning for the rest of his career in this sleepy little town. This team has a little too much talent for a full rebuild. Might run out of 40 man space with the prospect haul...
One of Rizzo's problems this year was the luxury tax. As others have mentioned, its not such an issue for 2020. So there is a bit of flexibility.
Rizzo has, at times, put his foot down: holding the line against Riggleman, dumping toxic relievers. If Rizzo's not planning to leave himself, he needs to make the changes that DM was talking about. Its much easier to watch potential building than dead weight taking you down.
So the rest of this year needs to be about tryouts for next years reboot. Most of the bullpen will go. Dozier (Jeezus! swing the bat you fool). Zimmerman era over. All of the coaching staff. Taylor has to go.
Its not a hopeless situation. Trade and release the non-performers. Get back to scouting again!
Here's another idea. Re-sign Rendon and trade Max. Yes, Max is great and seems to be able to beat father time, but father time eventually catches up with us all, even Willie Mays and Greg Maddux. I think the Nats would get a bigger return for Max and the FA SP's are much more enticing than the FA 3B (of course this could also decrease his trade value). So you trade Max, Kendrick, Matt Adams (again) and any other non-core player you can get someone for and reload for 2020. Of course, this plan assumes you're ready to spend on Cole or a get 2 #2's like Bumgardner and Arrieta.
It's extremely unlikely they'll trade Max, similar to the way they couldn't trade Bryce last July - too much bigger picture stuff in the way. But I also think it's never a bad call to retain a surefire HOF player. The Nats are not the barren cupboard the Tigers were when they traded Verlander.
I feel that what this team needs over the next 4-5 years is a lot more inventory in the minors. And I don't mean AA or AAA, but low-A and short-season - guys with plenty of upside but will develop over longer periods.
And Rizzo has had a great track record finding talent, but the guys he's traded away have really been flourishing elsewhere, while emptying the Nats' pipeline.
The coaching and medical staff REALLY need work. And off-the-field staff seem to be where the Lerners' cheapness is damaging the team. What's more, that's cheap! Another 3M gets you a ton more performance, which is a steal.
So torn on this. As a fan, I'd hate to watch a rebuild. But I'm not so sure that reloading is going to assure success in 2020-beyond.
I agree with: Soto/Robles/Turner/Doolittle/Big 3 being cornerstones to build on and we should be able to field a competitive team around that. Unloading of Zimm's deal will help. They have to resign/extend Rendon. I'd like to see the Lerner's offer him an Arenado-type deal and if he turns it down, you're watching Bryce Harper vol. 2. If that is the case, you NEED to trade him, and take another stab at bringing him back via FA. My gut tells me that if he had a strong desire to come back (this is key) that a deal would have come together already. I'm also wary that his individual season raises his price tag, while the team's performance makes him not interested in being a part of this organizational dysfunction. A lot of money in his pocket is the only way to convince him otherwise.
I disagree with: Trading Scherzer. There has to be some emotion involved here and if I'm making one exception, its Max. He is everything (if not the only thing) I like about this franchise. It was part of the reason I was okay with Bryce leaving.
I'm split on: Trading/keeping Doolittle. I'm curious of the return on him. I don't think solid relievers are as hard to come by as #1 ace SPs. However, he's cheap compared given his production and letting him go means you have to reconstruct the entire pen, top to bottom. Although maybe you have to do that any way.
Bottom line: I want to compete in 2020. The Lerner's have the money and I could care less about the tax penalties that follow. BUT... I am not convinced that any genius signing isn't putting lipstick on a pig for next year. There is a serious problem in our player development and our farm is gutted. I have no idea how to fix that other than to fire Rizzo. In doing so, you might be able to solve it, or his replacement could turn out to be Dan Duquette or Omar Minaya and we are a laughing stock in a spinning wheel of a rebuild. I think at the end of the day, if you can trace these fundamental/organizational issues back to Rizzo, you have to go in another direction.
I believe the player development/organizational structure and philosophy is our biggest problem. Not a collection of players.
Harper, I'm not going to comment on today's post. I'm here to give you props on your tweet from earlier this week. Funniest thing I read all month.
"I thought about the Eaton/mortgage point and really it's just advisable. It's probably a small enough part of his asset mix that the illiquidity of paying off his house doesn't matter to him but just in general, with the low rates, it's financially sounder to use a mortgage."
Hey Harper! Why are your tweets funny (as @Ric notes), but your blogs like sliding into a warm tub and opening a vein?
Rizzo makes all these great trades, but really outside of nailing 3 "can't miss draft prospects" (Strasburg, Harper, Rendon) that would've been as good or better if they got drafted by any of the other 29 teams, what has he really done??
He completely botched the 2015 season with the God awful Papelbum trade that was completely useless and not needed. As I've mentioned that year and will continue to mention for as long as I live Storen got a bad rap in DC. In 2012 if Gio could throw a strike maybe that game turns out differently but after he gave up the lead he should've been out of the game and never been allowed to face Kozma. And as I mentioned in 2014 when it happened and will continue to mention for as long as I live either: A) Storen starts to begin the 9th. Applaud ZNN for what he did, and tell him our closer is going to finish this or B) ZNN finishes the inning. Storen cannot come in mid inning. I would've Storen from the get go that inning. Maybe that turns out differently. But because of those 2 scenario's all of a sudden you have the "Storen can't pitch in high leverage scenario's" which is why Papelbum arrived. Bull $#!t! He was set up to fail! And than in 2015 at the point of the trade Storen had only 2 blown saves (but the Nats ended up winning both games anyways) and about the same ERA. I think Pap was 1.71 and Storen was 1.74 at the time, but remember that got inflated due to Storen pitching the 9th inning of a game in Tampa in which the Nats lead by 15+ runs and allowed 3 or 4 that inning. So I stand by my assessment Pap was not needed that year. And also as I said on another board that was a failure of epic proportions because if Pap isn't good than they are really screwed because you burned the Storen bridge. I don't think Kimbrel would've pitched the 8th either in hindsight but I think he would've been more of a team player that's why I was so high on guys like Kimbrel & Benoit. Slot them in the 8th IF Storen has a bad month or bad couple of weeks than you can make the move. Instead they made the move anyways, Pap wasn't bad but he certainly wasn't good, and that was the unofficial end of the Storen era in DC. So, that's a strike on Rizzo. I think the Mets end up winning the division that year anyways because they went on another level after Cespedes arrived, but Rizzo certainly made it a lot easier for them.
Strike number 2 was hiring another rookie manager for a win now team after the first one failed as badly as it did. Was he asleep the entirety of the 2014 & 2015 season?? What did he see that he thought was going to be any better the second time around. I know the Lerner's hamstrung him, but that was an awful hire.
Strike number 3. This bullpen. These collection of relievers have single-handily sunk the 2019 Nats and Rizzo hasn't done a damn thing about it!
As for Martinez: I really don't fault him at all. Yah, some of his decisions are bad, he's in over his head, and this was an awful job for him, but as I said last year what is he supposed to say when the Lerner's and Rizzo interview him?? "No, I don't want this job. Hopefully the Jays fire John Gibbons, or the Royals fire Ned Yost, or the Reds fire Bryan Price and then call me because I have a much better chance of succeeding there." No! And take a look at the collection of arms Martinez has at his disposal coming out of the bullpen gate, and really tell me you would do any better. He got stuck with a $#!t hand. Tony La Russa would have problems with this team. Connie Mack would have trouble with this team, everyone's fan favorite Dusty Baker would be struggling for answers with who to go to down there. Give Martinez some quality, competent relief arms and see what he can do with them before we kick him to the curb!!
@Max David: Because both of us too lazy to look it up or read when it was posted, I already laid out Rizzo's tenure as Nats GM. Once more, with feeling!
Tanner Roark for an old Christian Guzman, Denard Span for Alex Meyer, Gio for prospects that never panned out for the other team, Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps, Kurt Suzuki pt 1 for a low-level prospect, Treinen/Krol for a washed-up Mike Morse, Felipe Vazquez/Lobaton for Karns, Turner/Ross for Souza, Kintzler for a nobody, Kendrick for a nobody, signed Scherzer, Werth, Corbin, Murphy, Lind, Adams, LaRoche, Holland, Hellickson, Reynolds, Albers, Thornton and others that I don't care to list.
2019 might be his fault, but to say "what has he really done?" is ignorant of the facts. Besides, we could have easily taken Danny Hultzen, Dylan Bundy, or Bubba Starling (who?) instead of Rendon in 2011 - like SEA, BAL, KC did.
@Ole PBN Nice work! I remember not too long ago, there was a whole article at WaPo about how Rizzo never loses a trade. Obviously that's not the case anymore, but I think of it more as 'regressing to the mean' than 'Rizzo is a bad GM'. The overall track record is quite good, and should cut against any sort of narrative that Rizzo's only been good because he inherited a team with a young Stras and Harper.
One nitpick: didn't Rizzo also get AJ Cole in the Morse deal?
As I said in the other comment thread, I agree with PotomacFan and Old PBN.
As a fan, I don't want to watch a long rebuild. I did that already with this team; it was called 1995-2011 (having been an Expos fan that didn't abandon my fandom just because the team moved). So I definitely, absolutely want management to go for #1, #2, or #3.
As both of the commentators I mention have already said (and as I did as well), it all hinges on a Rendon extension. The only hope of a reload is to fill in star-level players, and Rendon is a genuine superstar, as he's showing this year yet again. Give him the Arenado deal or something comparable; don't play games about it. If he won't take that deal, that's on him, but if we don't even offer it, that's a complete failure of management. (Frankly, if management won't offer that kind of money for Rendon, they need to pivot straight to Option #4 because it's clear that they're not even trying in the short term. Trade everything but Soto, Robles, and Corbin and try again in 2022.)
If Rendon won't take an extension deal, then unless the Nats have somehow played their way back into 2019 contention (which by this point will require a lot of luck, but hey, baseball is a game of hope) he has to be traded. Management cannot play the kind of game they did with Harper last year. Nothing stops them from bidding on him in the offseason along with everybody else (a la the Yankees and Chapman).
Similarly, if we fall out of contention in 2019, everybody who has value and is on an expiring contract needs to be traded for whatever we can get for them, even if it's just slot money or a lottery ticket. (Kendrick, for example, I can see in Houston without a second thought.) Alternatively, if choosing option #1 and maybe #2, they could be extended now on a 1-2-year deal, solidifying the bench and/or 1B.
For many of the data points @ Ole PBn brings up, I'm for option 0.5 fire Rizzo first. No, wait...trade Rizzo for a bag of balls. I've seen enough of his "sample size." He simply isn't the guy who is going to bring DC a championship.
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