Simple. Get it done.
The Marlins have won two series since the end of July. They are about to lose game 100 with a couple weeks left in the year. Their pitching is poor and their hitting is abysmal. They have nothing to play for outside of jockeying with the Royals for the 3rd vs the 4th pick in next year's draft. They are bad.
There's no need for extra motivation. No cabbage smashing or rallying around coach or HABIT shirts. You win you are almost certainly in. You lose and you could very well be out. That's enough motivation. There's no time to correct mistakes so no excuses will be accepted.
Beat the Marlins.
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While I think you make a good point with the 5-3/6-1 argument earlier, if the Indians are still lurking in the ALWC race, that last weekend series could be a nail-biter for those that want a home game.
The Nats have done well against the Marlins and Phillies, maybe it'll wake up their offense enough to be able to use the non-leverage guys more, because five games in four days will also make that last series even dodgier.
Yeah I want the Indians knocked out, but I don't want to give the Phillies any fire under their butts. WHO DO I ROOT FOR THIS WEEKEND????
These next 3 games are more important than following 8. If you win these 3, its less pressure and have to win just win 4 of last 8. That's 50%.
Go Nats!
@ Anon:
Easy for me. Cleveland sweeps would be best. Crush the Phils. Leave them for dead.
They're 5 games back. 3 losses for them and say 2 wins for us and they are 7 back with 8 games to go. Beat them Monday, and then get the dregs in the double header and zombies after that. Hopefully we can make the Cleveland games meaningless for us.
Oops. @ CP
CP - two reasons to root for Cleveland against Philly: (1) the benefits to the Nats of Philly being effectively eliminated are larger than of Cleveland because the Nats play five games against Philly and only three against Philly and you'd rather have five games against a zombie opponent than three; (2) the Nats play Philly sooner than they play Cleveland, so you'd like Philly to attain zombie status sooner, which means losing now; Cleveland can attain zombie status after the Phillies series.
I agree on the Cleve/Philly takes - root for Cleveland now so the Philly games are dead weight. We're 8 games out from the Cleveland series and by then Cleveland might be in, might be out, the Nats might not have any pressure if the Cubs die away, a lot can happen
I would like to win every game going forward. IS that too much to ask?
Who specifically are the Phillies gonna rest with a whole week left in the season? Division rivalry games, chance to knock the Nats out of the playoffs... what does it matter if they're out of the WC hunt? Isn't Bruce Harpers gonna be crazy pumped up for that series?
Wouldn't you rather play a do-or die series vs. the Phils than vs. the Indians? CLE is so much better...
Understand the point re: 5 games vs 3. And these hypotheticals are interesting... but we have meaningful games in September. Let's enjoy 'em! And not worry about backing into the WC game, just win!
I agree that this weekend is more important. If they sweep Miami (which isn't a given) then next week becomes a whole lot easier. When 3-4 against Philly and Cleveland becomes - just don't get swept. One game at at time baby. Let's win tonight.
Get crazy pumped with Bruce Harpers! Bruce Harpers' 12-week program is gonna pump you up!
@Zimmerman11 said: "Who specifically are the Phillies gonna rest with a whole week left in the season?"
I don't necessarily disagree with your overall sentinent. But I think that if Phillies were out of it (and they will be), Phillies would like to see what additions they have for next year. That's what medicore teams do with the 40-man rosters. (Good teams still in the hunt use the pitchers in excess for match-ups, and bad teams don't call up all 40.)
z11 - Ric has it - it's not that the Phillies will stop trying but they may use some AAA arms and bats in places where a fighting for WC Phillies team would not. They also might rest guys more. Those DH games will look a lot different if the Phillies are 3 out or 7 out when they are played
@Harper, that is the single best entry you have ever written. Thunderous applause from this corner!
Cards win again by 1 run! Thank you St. Louis!
1 down, two to go. Harder than it should have been, but a W is a W I guess.
You obviously want the Indians to win these games. Cleveland is *most likely* not going to be eliminated OR in when final series arrives. Possible, but not likely. The AL WC has been within a 3 game race for like a 1.5 months or something. The Phillies meanwhile will be dead if Cleveland takes series.
Ps I would be very surprised if the Nats hang onto home field. The brewers schedule is just sooooo much easier rest of the season. They’re playing teams where you really have to work at it to lose games.
Great article on Howie:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-nationals-secret-weapon/
If Kendrick is healthy, and if the Nats make the WC, Howie HAS to start!
BxJ, I think you’re overstating the difference between the Nats’ and Brewers’ schedules. Right now the Nats are playing the worst team in the league. The Pirates aren’t good but they’re better than the Marlins. Next up are the Phillies (at home) for the Nats and the Reds (on the road) for the Brewers. The Reds and Phillies are similarly bad - better record for the Phils, better run differential and BaseRuns for the Reds. Advantage goes to the team playing at home. The last series - Indians at home for the Nats, Rockies on the road for the Brewers favors the Brewers. But the Nats have a two-game lead in the loss column. I’d say 60/40 the Nats finish with a better record than the Brewers.
I don't know who pisses me off more: Fernando Rodney for giving up four runs in the bottom of the eighth or Davey and the Braintrust for leaving him in long enough to give up four runs. It's nights like tonight that make me want to say screw it, don't even make the playoffs because this team is not good enough to advance anyway.
What was Davey thinking leaving in Rodney? Must be the heart meds...
There goes any chance of Strasburg getting to 19 Ws. What a waste.
Leaving in Rodney was probably to avoid using any of the better relievers. It didn't look good, but they managed to escape without having to use any of their competent pen arms (though I still think Suero is somewhat better than his stats).
@Kubla. Thing is....Rodney has arguably been their best reliever since they acquired him. No, really. He’s also the only one who consistently misses bats.
@Anon. Wait what? No chance. The Brewers will finish ahead of the Nats. Watch. They’re playing zero above .500 teams and 2 utterly atrocious ones. The Nats are playing 8 games vs teams with a winning record, including 3 vs a 95 win team, and a few vs Marlins. Moreover the Nats have to play a double header, which will require a terrible starter. Re the Pirates and Marlins, wrong. Since the AS break the Pirates have been easily worse than the Marlins—they’ve been the most pathetic team in NL since AS break. The Brewers will beat the Pirates like an absolute drum and sweep them. Then the Reds, who are meh, aren’t playing for anything... and the Phillies (superior team) still have hope, even if it’s a death rattle. Then we have a series vs a team better than us. The Brewers will be the WC home team—I’m virtually certain (god I’m not looking forward to them bringing in Hader in the 6th inning for 3-4 innings)
Anon—right now the Pirates are the saddest “we’ve packed it in”/mailing in the rest of the season bunch I’ve ever seen. Not just losing (eight straight now) but getting blown out on a repeated basis. Say what you will about the Marlins, but they continue to battle despite their lack of talent. The Pirates? They’re done, and they’re not being subtle about it. The Velazquez horror show seems to have completely disheartened them.
Nats win, Cubs lose. Nats have a 98.6% chance of making the playoffs entering today, per FG (BRef and 538 have similar numbers). Nothing short of an EPIC collapse would push them out of the WC. So, yesterday's games basically clinched a WC spot for the Nats.
HFA is a different story. FG thinks the Brew Crew will get 88 wins, 538 has 'em projected for 89. Both systems project the Nats to go 5-4 and finish with 90 wins. So, all that to say, with everything considered, Nats have a SLIGHT edge to get HFA. I'd put it at, say, a 55% chance for HFA (so, slightly better than a coin flip). Too bad the Nats lost the game against MIL where they blew a 3-run save opportunity. That game looms a bit large now, not just because of the W-L, but also H2H would have been 3-3.
But regardless, if the Nats just go 5-4, the Brew Crew has to go 5-2 to get HFA. Possible, but not probable, even with MIL's easy-peasy remaining schedule. Plus they may have to hold Woodruff out of next weekend's Saturday start to save him for the WC (of course the Nats probably have to do the same thing with Scherz, etc etc etc). Let's see what happens.
BX & Unknown
I see you guys are attacking my good buddy Anon with logic and reason, not to even mention some baseball acumen. That will never work because Anon is NEVER,EVER wrong, except in this instance, where you guys have squarely hit the nail.
Some odds and ends:
Daniel Hudson is looking like a MUCH better deal than Craig Kimbrel. Kudos to Rizzo for this one. Kimbrel has imploded in two straight games against the Cardinals (thank you, Craig!), and he wasn't doing well before then.
Jacob DeGrom will win the NL Cy Young. He's been tremendous post-All Star Break. Max still looks a bit shaky.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but as of now, I would start Strasburg, not Scherzer, in the Wild Card game. Especially if it's indoors in Milwaukee, where the weather will be perfect (with the roof closed). Stras looks better than Max right now.
Tough times to be a Cubs fan......
"According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Chicago became the second team in MLB history to be swept in a four-game series at home with each loss being a one-run defeat. That had not happened since June 1919 (Cleveland sweeping the Red Sox in Boston). This is also the first time the Cubs have experienced five straight one-run losses since July 1915."
Wow!
Indians drop the hammer on the Phillies, 10-1; win series.
Reliever A vs. Reliever B
A 20.0 IP 1.80 ERA 4.07 FIP 3 SV 7.65 K/9 1.35 BB/9 1.35 HR/9 0.3 WAR
B 20.2 IP 6.53 ERA 8.01 FIP 13 SV 13.06 K/9 5.23 BB/9 3.92 HR/9 -1.0 WAR
Reliever A's a free agent after the season. Reliever B's got 2 years/$33 mil left after the season. This is simply a support of PotomacFan's point.
^^ and a reason why we don’t invest mega dollars on fickle relievers. The fix is developing cheap talent within and sprinkle one or two high-prices guys in between.
Time for you frequent flyers to redeem those miles. I hear it's nice in Milwaukee in early autumn.
As i said yesterday, I’d be absolutely shocked if Nats have Home Field. The brewers are basically playing triple a teams who have mentally gone home for the offseason. Meanwhile we have doubleheaders division rivals and an Indians teeth that will likely be fighting tooth and nail until game 162.
Nope. Rizzo gets no credit for anything related to the bullpen this year, sorry. And I wouldn’t be opposed to examining whether he’s worth keeping on following this season. The guy has had an elite core of phenomenal players (how many other teams have 4 different 6 win players on their team and 5 different 5 win players?) and yet cannot surround them with a competent complementary set, in particular consistently building bullpens that range from bad to historically hideous. That’s just not acceptable, doubly so because he doesn’t learn and keeps putting all the resources elsewhere.
@Bx, so Rizzo should have invested the resources in Kimbrel?
Maybe I'm old-fashioned when it comes to debate, but "Nope, sorry" doesn't really constitute a rebuttal in my book.
Bx - if Rizzo deserves blame for every failure, then he deserves praise for every success (from high-priced signings like Scherzer all the way down to Hudson). If his cheap bullpen didn't pan out, and that is enough to not bring him back... then we deserve everything we'll get after that.
We've talked about this a lot, but I think a consensus opinion should be: the bullpen sucks, so that is frustrating. We need to look at how we fix that. Spend more money? Draft better? Develop relievers better? Sacrifice on starting pitching and make the bullpen a priority going forward? All of those are on the table. I personally don't think firing Rizzo is a rational or viable solution.
@Ole PBN - You're right that the bullpen, or lack thereof, has been discussed ad nauseum. I guess the question, or discussion, should be what you say: How do we fix that?
The players are professionals that made it to the major league by doing what they need to do. Why do they all of a sudden forget what their job is when they come in the 7th inning and, instead, do just the opposite of what they're paid to, and supposed to, do? (Like my dogs that KNOW they're not supposed to get on the furniture but then give the "Sorry, I forgot" when I catch 'em there.)
Is it that they truly forgot? Their minds are elsewhere? Bad preparation? Or do these crappy teams all of a sudden remember what THEY are supposed to do starting in the 7th (or 8th) inning?
I think it’s two-fold: poor preparation/execution and that these guys just aren’t very good. The latter is Rizzo’s fault, even though I like that he prioritized position players and starting pitching.
The first part is player preparation - which I would lay at the feet of the coaching staff. Execution is solely on the player. Make a pitch.
FP brought up an interesting point during one of Soto’s at bats late in yesterday’s game. Soto was battling, fouling off pitches, even though we were probably going to lose the game. FP was impressed by how Soto never takes a “pitch off” or “an AB off.” He says that in this point of the season, guys are tired and just mail it in sometimes (not for a whole game, but during some situations during the game, they’ll say “F it, whatever.”) If that is true, I think therein lies our problem, or at least part of it.
Guys giving up in crunch time. Due to mental exhaustion, ADD, or just not caring. Trust me, this is not an excuse, as I find it laughable that hat might be a true statement FP was taking about. If so, I lost a lot of respect for these guys.
Good FG article on the improbable rise of the Brewers:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers-have-defied-the-odds/
"On September 5th, our playoff odds put Milwaukee’s chances of reaching the postseason at just 5.6%. Those were worse odds than in-division rivals St. Louis and Chicago, and also put them at lower Wild Card odds than New York and Arizona."
I remember rooting for them to beat the Cubs recently, and they did, losing the first game but then taking the last three. Be careful what you wish for!
I don't think it's galling at all that some folks take some moments off.
Think about your life, your work -- do you ever phone it in? Do you ever let your frustrations get in the way of performing at your best? Do silly, interpersonal conflicts ever get in the way of the perfect outcome? You ever just find yourself feeling a step slow, or a little dumber than usual?
I'm reasonably confident that these are universal human experiences. I'm sure players have an unequal need / propensity for it, and some players are probably better at timing it, but this isn't a video game. These are actual human beings.
I've never played sports at a serious level, but I worked several years as a professional poker player. And one of the abilities most central to success in that field is the ability to play at your best almost all the time. In my experience, no one is 100% immune to this kind of interference, and minimizing its effects on your play and recognizing and exploiting its effects on others' is a huge, huge part of the game. (Poker players do have one really big advantage over athletes at this -- you can just get up whenever you want.)
This kind of thing happens all the time in baseball. You see folks protecting with 2 strikes lose all sense of where the zone ends. You see pitchers unable to throw strikes. You see defensive miscues. We're right to complain about it, and we're right to lay the blame on the players (at least, most of it), but we shouldn't assume fixing it is easy. It almost certainly is not.
Do you think DM will ever learn to not use Suero on back to back days unless you absolutely have to? Me neither. I hope DM and Rizzo are not brought back.
Anon - a lot of your examples in a regular person's life are characterized as mistakes. I agree those happen. I'm not talking about mistakes. I'm referring to one refusing to give their best effort, because of "x". The difference between you, me, and a pro athlete is they would never admit to refusing to give their effort; while getting at minimum $500k/year to do it (per MLB).
A missed free throw due to poor technique: lack of focus/forgetting one's mechanics to make the shot? I'd buy that; it happens. Missing a free throw because "they just don't care?"; that's a little different.
I'm referring to the intent behind a particular action. I could be wrong, but it sounded like that was what FP was referring to as well.
Man... that last Marlins game really kept me on edge for this week. I think 89 wins gets in.... 3/8 would've been SO much nicer.
@OPBN I agree that prioritizing position players and SP is a better course of action. RP is very hard to predict season to season. Also, there are often good relievers available for trade. Bad teams can luck into good RP, and teams that don't prioritize SP or batting can get knocked out of contention quickly.
87 wins gets us in. if the nats win 87 games, one of these would have to happen: Phillies go 7-1 , Mets go 6-1 or the Cubs go 5-1. Those results would put the Nats in a play in game. 88 wins gets you in unless one of those teams win out.
Home field advantage is much less likely unless the Nats start winning.
Nothing like watching the Nats limp into the postseason! Not super confident that come the Wild Card game the Nats will just magically "turn it back on!"
Winning the wild card game is not even the goal, getting to the CS is, and over the last month the Nats have shown that they are not that team -
@BxJaycobb said: "Wait what? No chance. The Brewers will finish ahead of the Nats. Watch. They’re playing zero above .500 teams and 2 utterly atrocious ones. The Nats are playing 8 games vs teams with a winning record, including 3 vs a 95 win team, and a few vs Marlins. Moreover the Nats have to play a double header, which will require a terrible starter. Re the Pirates and Marlins, wrong. Since the AS break the Pirates have been easily worse than the Marlins—they’ve been the most pathetic team in NL since AS break. The Brewers will beat the Pirates like an absolute drum and sweep them. Then the Reds, who are meh, aren’t playing for anything... and the Phillies (superior team) still have hope, even if it’s a death rattle. Then we have a series vs a team better than us. The Brewers will be the WC home team—I’m virtually certain."
There's so much wrong with this, I sort of don't know where to start.
I think the Brewers might finish ahead of the Nats. But it isn't a sure thing, at all. All your reasoning stops on the surface. The Nats have to play a doubleheader, and therefore will require a horrible starter? Then the Phillies also require a terrible starter! You are fixated on records. The Nats play two teams with a winning record while the Brewers play two teams with a losing record? Go deeper, Bx. The Nats are hosting two teams that both have losing records on the road. The Brewers, sub-.500 on the road, are traveling to two teams with winning home records.
I won't be surprised if the Brewers finish better than the Nats. But I won't be surprised if the Nats finish better, either. "No chance"? Yes, a very good chance.
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