Nats will host Milwaukee tomorrow and Brandon Woodruff tomorrow. The dust has settled. I never did a Brewer preview and for one game these things are kind of pointless but for a general idea I'll ramble...
The Brewers are a basically a .500 ish team. The ranks don't look great but you gotta take a closer look at that because it doesn't catch the spread. Over the course of the season the NL offenses kind of fell into these groups. The elites (LA, Nats!, Braves), The Rockies, The better than averages (ARI, CHC, NYM), The averages (PHI, MIL, STL PIT), The below averages (CIN, SDP, SFG) and The Poor Marlins. The pitching broke down into THE elite (Dodgers), The next best (STL), The Imperfect Chasers ( CIN, CHC, Nats!, NYM, ATL, ARI), The Middling (MIL, SFG, SDP, PHI, MIA) and The Rock... wait what are the Pirates doing here too? (COL, PIT)
So reading that average offense, middling pitching. .500 in part because having no flaw does that for you.
But they aren't .500 they are 89-73! What's up with that? Well they went 20-7 in September that's what's up. They did score more but what really happened in September was they got lucky (8-1 in 1 or 2 run games over their streak - 12-4 in such games since the middle of August) and their pitching was a lot better. Granted they were playing a lot of bad teams - but not all of them were bad and not all bad teams have bad offenses. Their was BABIP thing going on but all the peripherals got better too.
As far as the Nats are concerned it's not pressing that Davies, Anderson, and Lyles did well. They are all back-up. Expect to see one of them or Gio (who didn't do as well but got all the breaks) as Woodruff will only go as long as he's effective. Probably 4 innings max. Then one of the pitchers. Then the pen. A lot of key bullpen arms, Suter, Peralta, Hader, Pomeranz looked very sharp.I'm guessing their ideal game would be Woodruff for 4+, Suter/Guerra/Pomeranz matching up for 2+, Hader for 2.
Hitting wise they are a solid bunch who walk and homer built around the star of Yelich who is out. They've rallied but it's more timely hitting than anyone becoming great. Hiura, Braun, and should have been a Nat Grandal provide most of the offense. Cain too but he's been moved down for the new offensive plan which is... - Grisham hit leadoff, take a lot of pitches and get on base. I'm not sure that's a plan for facing the extremely controlled Scherzer. Moustakas and Thames, just swing for the fences. That more of a problem for Max given his both recent problems with HR balls and his historic playoff issues. Whoever is at the bottom of the line-up Gamel, Arcia - do something. (not likely - they aren't good) EXCEPT Brandon Woodruff - good hitter. I mean for a pitcher yes, but .267 average.
If the Nats are lucky (and I'm right) the Brewers will keep Grisham on top of the line-up and he'll just 10 pitch 3Ks through 3 ABs vs Max. If Max is walking anyone it's an issue. He has no reason not to go right at Grisham. He doesn't hit that well. So attack him and then there's an out before you face the good part of the line-up every time around.
I see a match-up that I don't love for Max. It's better than facing a really good offense, sure, but if you had your choice of middling offenses, you'd want Max up against a walking offense that strings together singles and steals bases*. Max won't walk anyone and the offense should stall. Against a homer heavy team like the Brewers - they won't get the big 3-run blast because there won't be men on but 3 homers is possible. The hope - like I said above - is they self-sabotage a little and try to get Grisham to walk his way on. Again it's Max though so he'll match up pretty well against anyone.
I can see them having 3 runs against Max. Then it's the pen and it'll be interesting. I can see these guys shut down by good arms and crushing bad ones. Guys who don't get Ks will be the biggest issues and the Nats pen isn't a K-heavy one. Rainey is the K guy. Doolittle and Rodney can get them. Otherwise? Jeckyll & Hyde Suero? Voth?
Can the Nats score more than say... 4? I think they can. I think there is a pretty good chance of that. There's definitely a tightrope the Brewers are trying to walk to get to Hader and that's a long tightrope. I think the middle pen - the Pomeranz/Suter/Guerra - is good enough to do it but can they get to them? (or really use them early and as long as possible?) Woodruff is a question mark and then it become if whatever starter you bring in adapts to being used in that way. It's an odd situation that usually favors the hitter. You know I favor just pitching around Rendon and Soto and making everyone else beat you. Not sure teams have listened to me.
Painting a picture - I'd see a game that features a couple Brewers shots early and maybe a 3-1 lead before Woodruff tires and the wheels come off for the Brewers as they try to fill a gap between trouble and when they'd like to use their good pitchers instead of just using them. It's like 7-3 or 8-4ish late when the pen gives up another bomb or two scaring everyone but it's not enough and Nats win like 9-5.
There's a rambling take. Something more sane tomorrow.
*In theory STL would be ideal.
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I worry that Max's adrenaline is going to be through the roof, resulting in a lot of pitches being thrown. My guess is he makes it through 5, insists going back out for the 6th, before being pulled.
I don't anticipate for us to put up more than 2 runs off Woodruff, if at all. And if he scuffles, I like Hader throwing like 4 scoreless innings, making our hitters look stupid in the process. If Max struggles (entirely possible), can't go deep in the game (and by deep I mean 7 innings--6 innings will not do)... they we're in trouble. I think the strategy favors MIL. The players on paper, that favors the Nats. Welcome to 2012-2019.
Wrong, Nats will lose because they stole Montreal's team and they are cursed to the most excruciating playoff losses possible. In this case, turn the whole season around just to reach the playoffs and lose in the wildcard game. I'd actually have more hope if the Nats were facing a good pitcher, facing someone coming off injury who will only go 3-4 sounds just like the kind of Nats game where they get shutout by 16 pitchers.
Nos amours!
JWL - Nats up 6 lose in the 9th as Hudson, who had warmed up previously 4 times in this game, blows out his arm and the bullpen fails. Nats still have a chance up 1 with 2 outs but on an ground ball in the first base hole, Zimm throws it into the Nats dugout not only sending two runners home but nailing Soto, who came out for defensive purposes, square in the face
Could easily see the Nats getting blanked for the first 6 innings.
Remember that 2012 NLDS? I know it went to a game 5 but I think the Cards outscored the Nats in the series like 35-12
I say this only to highlight how fucking nerve wracking the Nats are in playoff scenarios.
Tomorrow is going to be quite a ride for us fans.
Nats offered Rendon a contract in the range of 7 years/$210 million, back in early September
7/210 is a very fair offer.
Maybe even generous based on the years we are talking about.
Brewers were winning in September because rosters expanded (for the last time) and brewers have a lot of average pitchers that look great for 3.5 innings. Especially with well managed workloads and match ups. That won't work in a playoff series but it will work in the wildcard game. Counsell will use eight pitchers tomorrow. And I will be there for all the warm-ups. Nats will have to bash their way through this because scherzer could give up four through six innings.
@billyhacker. I truly believe that tomorrow may turn on Davey. If he piggy backs Max and Stras (IP for Max according to how he pitches), I think the Nats will win. If he manages like a fool and throw Max for 6-7 and then the bullpen, I imagine the Nats may lose in the late innings. Rizzo needs to tell Davy what to do. And that does not include Doolittle, Rodney, or Hudson getting any outs of consequence. Yes they are better than our other relievers, but any one of them can come in and give up 3 runs in 15 minutes.
Rendon should take that offer, there’s no way he’s beating it with a qualifying offer on him.
I’m showing up at 7:15 tomorrow and taking the damned boat from Old Town because this is stressful enough without cars.
If Max gets through the first without a run or a walk, I will probably exhale.
@billyhacker. If it’s generous, I don’t think it’s *that* generous. Rendon is a current perennial MVP candidate who will given his skill set (amazing eye, great hand eye coordination, and above all he’s starting as a plus defender who will stay at 3rd and play decent or better defense for *most* of the deal and then maybe end at 1st) age into a 4-5 WAR player in middle of deal and then a 2-3-ish WAR player at end of deal. Over 7 years i think he will be worth something in the 25-30 WAR range if I had to guess, which ends up at a decent deal for 210 mil, even if it’s a bit of an overpay. On the free market I think he will get maybe a shorter deal, but just as high AAV. Something like 6/180-200m. I also think the Nats will probably have to extend Strasburgs deal in order to keep him from opting out, and his price tag will increase from 25 AAV after a 6+ WAR, Cy Young level year. They’ll have to adjust his deal to something more like 30 AAV and maybe add a year or two. The good and the bad thing about those two players is they are really indisputably great. Rendon is a top 15 position player in MLB and Strasburg might be a top 10 starter. They deserve lots of money.
But i don’t think it’s sure thing at all that Rendon will get *more* than 7/210 mil on open market. In fact I doubt he will do better than that.
Max has pitched in four playoff games for the Nationals in his career. The Nationals are 0-4 in those games. Just sayin'. I hope Max pitches a perfect game and makes my worries moot. But I still think Stras deserves the start. See y'all tomorrow night. Section 404.
Re: Rendon, what clubs are in need of a 3b right now willing to outbid the Nats? Curious who the competition is.
As a fan though, I will be very, very dissaapointed if the Lerners don't sign him.
Very.
Very.
I've read for weeks now that some clubs that may go overboard (and probably could afford it) are the Dodgers Phillies and Braves...not sure what the Rangers salary situation is, but I've seen mention them them too...
I tend to disagree that the Nats' 7/210 offer for Rendon is the "best he'll do" on the open market. The Nats have established a base offer. They could go higher, but teams will most likely go higher if they want Rendon. I said the same thing with Bryce last year. All it takes is one desperate team. There are 29 other teams out there, all with ranging levels of competency in their FO. Somebody will back up a Brinks truck.
That said, 7/210 is fair offer. But I don't think its enough to get it done. Plus, I don't know what he's said to indicate he wants to remain in DC other than the "if it happens, it happens." Time to start looking at some other options at 3B, ugh.
I have a question: this is based totally on feeling, but it seems like with Acuna, jr., Albies, Trout and Arenado...other teams have had success in getting players to accept extensions and offers. Are the nats just opposed to this strategy...do they just suck at it....or is it just Scott Boras?
@Steve:
Nats successfully extended Zimmerman and Strasburg. They failed to extend Harper and Zimmermann (which latter turned out to be a lucky break, but whatever). Rendon's status will be a major question mark. Other than doing what the Braves did and convincing Turner/Soto/Robles to sign horrible (from the point of view of potential career earnings) long-term deals, what other home-grown players have we failed to extend?
if the nats extend soto i will accept the rendon deal.
really think those last 3 years of the rendon deal are gonna look really bad. i hope he can play first base. he's not a stellar athlete now and will only decline. also @bx he's not a perennial mvp candidate, not seriously.
rendon is the man but honestly his stats this year need to take the juiced ball into account. there are a lot of players looking better than average this year due to the ball. i would be okay with the Nats walking if it goes much higher than 210.
we are going to have three aging pitchers with huge contracts on the roster...let's not add to it with position players too.
i know you can always argue "oh but the owners should pay them, theyre rich" is really nice and all, but there's no realistic indication that the owners are collectively going to wake up tomorrow and decide "hey we are so rich, the fans want us to sign everyone, fuck the tax!"
so for now, we have a soft cap and i hope the team spends wisely
I'm sure the Nats would like to extend Soto and Robles, but we don't know how interested the players are in this.
If the Nats are unable to sign Rendon, can they pivot to Donaldson or Moose as a Plan B? I'm sure Moose will opt out of his mutual option. Maybe they can take the savings and invest more in the 'pen.
Not saying that I favor Plan B. Plan A (resign Rendon) is definitely the preference.
NBC Sports listed Zimm starting 1B. Keep him there during the first innning while Max gives up a couple of dingers, then pull him once Max settles down and let Howie do the voodoo that he does so well.
Well, the Lerners and Rizzo didn't pony up for Bryce because we needed the money to sign Rendon. If he goes elsewhere we're going to hear the chorus that we freed up more money to sign Robles, Soto, and Turner. After a while they darn well better actually SIGN somebody. If we have this same dog and pony show every few years it's going to get real old real quick.
But I also think Scott Boras is Exhibit A of the love of money being the root of all evil. "And through covetousness shall they with feigned words make merchandise of you." He makes me want to vomit.
Scott Boras is in such a good position in his profession.
He has framed his job in such a good way that he arguably has people thinking/believing that Boras and his clients have a moral incentive to be as greedy as possible.
"The owners are rich, therefore they should pay my clients/me more money, and I will go after that money tooth and nail"
I both cringe and applaud every time one of his clients gets low balled and he rails against the greed of the MLB owner and while demanding more money for his client (himself).
The 7/210 offer isn't really 7/210, because it's reportedly got the typical Lerner deferrals (which are frankly embarrassing to the franchise). If they offered him a clean 7/210-220, then I'd say that's a pretty strong offer and one that would be pretty enticing. I am just tired of the deferrals - there's a lot of money coming off the books this year, just don't mess this up
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