Stop Worrying! ... (mostly)

There is this weird dichotomy that I see going on that suggests fans fully believe the NL East title is out of reach but also believe the Nats have a fairly good shot at losing their playoff spot. This is despite the fact that these things are about as equally likely. 

The division sits 7 games away and so simply put the Nats have to play 7 games better than the Braves the rest of the way to take it.  That's hard. It's not impossible. The Braves have 22 games left.  Their worst 22 game stretch this year was 9-13.  The Nats have 24 games left. Their best streak was 19-5.  That would do it. But this doesn't take into account who they are playing or the circumstances that led to these streaks. The Nats have a harder schedule now compared to during that streak. Hell, they have a harder schedule than the Braves. 19-5 is very very unlikely. Even shifting down to a impressive 17-7 means the Braves only have to go 11-11 to hold on. But the Braves schedule is pretty easy and .500 is below what you'd predict for them.

This is all to say the NL East title is not going to happen because it would take the Braves playing worse than .500 ball against a schedule where you'd expect they'd be several games better than that, and the Nats playing several games over .500 against a schedule you'd probably have them close to .500.

The saving grace, the only thing that makes it not impossible, is the 7 H2H games. In these every Nats win is a Braves loss and you don't have to rely on another independent event going your way.  If the Nats can dominate 7-0, 6-1 there's a chance. You don't expect them to but this is where the door can open.  Of course that means right away the Nats can't lose this upcoming 4 game series. 1-3 or worse closes the door completely. A split may not do it officially but it pretty much sets up a Nats run the table, Braves fall apart scenario, including the Nats sweeping the Braves one series later.

But no one is really denying the above. There's a very slim chance out there if the Nats can crush the Braves H2H. Everyone gets this. What everyone doesn't get is the same kind of low chance exists on the other side, for the Nats dropping out of the playoffs.

The Nats sit comfortably 3 games ahead of the Cubs in WC1, 6 games ahead of the D-backs and Phillies.  To lose the WC three things need to happen

1) The Nats have to play poorly enough to make it possible. Much like the Braves going .500 forces the Nats to play nearly perfect baseball, the Nats playing .500 would do the same for any of the teams chasing down a WC spot. If the Nats can go 12-12 that means the worst a team could do and catch them is 17-5/18-6. That's the worst.

2) Another team has to have their best run of the season now. Let's say the Nats slip and go 10-14 or 11-13, that's possible against a tougher schedule. well it leaves a door open for a 15-7 or 16-8 run to catch them. That's still unlikely but we're getting into the realm of possibility especially with four teams chasing them down.  The most likely scenario here is the D-backs, with their easy schedule, manage to do it. The Phillies will have a tough time making this run if they couldn't pull off something similar in the past two weeks when they had a better chance. Their saving grace is the H2H games at the end of the year. The Mets have an outside shot given their schedule at the end but being a game and a half further out makes it that much harder. The Brewers... poor poor Brewers, well they're here because it's not impossible. 

The chances that a team has that run is slim, but the chances that any one of these four have that run? Also slim! But not quite as slim!

3) But that's not it because remember the Nats are ahead of the Cubs right now and would have to fall behind them or the Cardinals to end the year as well in this scenario (because I'm not buying two teams chasing the Nats from the four above having incredible end of the season runs). That's not impossible but given they still play each other 7 times that complicates things. If the Cardinals take 5 of 7 the Cubs  would have to go around a very good 11-6 in the rest of their games to pass the Nats. If the Cubs take 5 of 7 the Cardinals have to go 8-8 or better. These aren't necessarily that crazy but you are saying a team that is bad enough to go 2-5 in these games are going to play .500 ball or better in their other games. That doesn't seem too crazy but the Cards do face the D-backs still. So they'll have to find a way likely to lose that series and still go .500. Sweeping the Nats would be a big one.


Looking at the above the most likely inside straight draw the NL could make on the Nats is as follows :
The D-backs go 16-6
The Cubs go 14-10, including beating the Cardinals 5 out of 7 games
The Cardinals despite being beat up by the Cubs, go 9-7 in their other games and 11-12 over their last 23

AND

The Nats do themselves in going 10-14. 

If you want to picture it in your head - the Nats scuffle over the Nest 10 games vs ATL and MIN, going like 4-6, then they get swept by STL. They beat MIA but are at 6-10 now and can't turn it on enough against PHI and CLE to get back going 4-4.

That's the MOST likely way the Nats miss the playoffs. It's a series of things that aren't super likely. Which is why most odds sites have them pretty much in.

But this will all clear up the further we go along. Which each Nats win and each rival loss this scenario becomes less likely.  Go 6-4 and not 4-6 in these 10 and you almost put it to bed.