The GMs are meeting but these meetings are essentially just a starting point. Things rarely happen here in comparison to the baseball Winter Meetings and even that time frame (early December) seems to be falling by the wayside to "waiting everyone out to get a deal and if not shrugging their shoulders and telling fans 'it wasn't cost effective' and letting the analyst fans and media defend the teams actions as 'forward-thinking'"
Why does little happen here? Well part of the reason is it's so early in the process qualifying offers don't have to be decided on yet. Technically both Rendon and Strasburg are sitting on theirs. Everyone expects rejection. As Cab, Dozier, Hellickson, Hudson, Parra, Rodney, Adams, Gomes, and Zimm all did not get QOs and are free to go where ever. Today a quick review :
Middle Infield
Cabrera : aging MI best described as a back-up 2B/3B, and 2B is iffy. Up and down career, he was having a run of above average seasons at the plate before dropping below last year. Switch hitter
Dozier : also aging, but a year younger, 2B. Looked bad in 2018 but rebounded in 2019 to look... well useful. Defense came back with slightly limited playing time. Bat, not so much. Pop and some patience righty who can mash lefties still (if 2018 is a fluke which seems to be likely)
Out of the two Dozier gives you better D. Offense is a mixed bag. Switch hitters are obviously real useful and with Kieboom likely up gives him a more natural back-up. But a guy that can really hit one type can be a very useful bench bat. I'd expect Dozier back and not As Cab, dependent on Dozier not finding a starting job somewhere else which is possible.
First Base
Adams : Brought in to platoon with Zimm, Adams was a nice piece in 2018, but last year his K rate went up to a staggering 34.5% and in an environment of exploding offense didn't do much more. Mediocre fielder
Zimm : When healthy will hit veteran wasn't healthy and didn't hit. No range anymore at first. Keeping him would be an entirely sentimental move with the idea that he backs up a LH firstbaseman and as a non-starter, he can get healthy again.
If you want a ruthless move, neither comes back. There is great sentiment though to keep Zimm but it can only work if he takes a very low salary. If you take Zimm though, it's hard to keep Dozier imo because the bench doesn't need two guys to pinch hit against LHP.
Relief
Hudson : Did everything the Nats asked him to, but a quick look at the stats suggest a guy who relied on weak fly balls? Is that a thing. No reason to think he can't be useful in a pen but a back end role seems unlikely to match his performance
Rodney : Fun but not good last year - but good for the Nats and good in most years before last. He's a high GB guy who is wild but strikes people out. Age is of course a concern but workload in 2019 was limited so might have one more useful year left.
Honestly out of the two I'd keep Rodney. Rodney will likely come back for a cheap 1 year deal, where Hudson might parlay his success into something he slightly does not deserve (nowadays no one gets really overpaid). Yes, that means the Nats need bullpen help
Everyone else
Gomes : Gomes' non-option is the closest thing to a surprise for the Nats off-season so far. There was a sense he would be the catcher for a while if things worked out. But he while still solid behind the plate, his mistakes jumped out at you and with his bat disappearing for the second time in his career it was easy enough to move on if you wanted to.
Hellickson : He was hurt and looked bad and has disappointed the Nats health wise two years in a row. Even if they liked him they can't bring him back outside of a NRI. They need something more reliable.
Parra : After a fast start was sneaky terrible for the Nats whose best trait is "not a terrible corner OF". I have a hard time justifying why he should be on a major league roster in 2020. Bench coach? Maybe.
I suppose out of the three Gomes might be back, the Nats cutting him loose to try to sign him back at a contract more in line with his production. The catcher pipeline still isn't demanding any chances, but at this point maybe you try Read/Gushue just to see what you have? Hellickson and Parra there just isn't any sound justification outside of "bring everyone back" to do it. Neither should be productive in 2020.
Other than that a bunch of organizational depth was let go - no one you have to care about at all. Like really - nothing interesting.
So I guess I've talked myself into bringing back Rodney maybe? OK. I'm fine with that.
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37 comments:
I'm fine with a cheap, sentimental Zimm victory lap if that's what he wants to do. If he gets truly healthy he really can still mash LHP. It was only a couple of years ago that he (somehow) spent the first half of the season as the best hitter in baseball.
I think if you are serious about the Kieboom trial that doesn't leave a good place for Dozier and if you let Dozier go that opens up a spot for Zimm
Only big issue I see is that if the Kieboom trial doesn't work, what then? I guess they'd just have to go out and find someone, maybe an unsigned Dosier or AsCab? Neither are great options and I have to imagine what Kieboom does also depends on Rendon.
el chupo - I assume Kendrick is spot starting at 2B, 1B, 3B and OF as needed. So if Kieboom dies on the vine, Howie takes over as full-time 2B. Not ideal in the field but
They have to bring Parra back as a coach. No idea what they make but it's probably less than the league minimum, and he leads the league in clubhouse-chemistry WAR
Think we need to prepare to be let down by Kieboom. He looked so, so bad when he was called up. Don't see ~1 year significantly solving some of the problems we saw with his fundamentals.
Howie is a free agent though. He'll get decent offers to DH and spot start in the field from good AL clubs, where he can provide a lot more bang for the buck than in the NL. He also very well could retire. I think the Nats should absolutely sign him if he wants to come back, because an above market contract for a guy at his age and with iffy legs is probably only like 1/8 2/12 or something like that. He's an especially valuable player--both on the field and in the public mind--for the Nats if they let Rendon go elsewhere, as a big bat the fans already love.
Gotta echo Josh, I really don't see Howie coming back. He just fits in too perfectly as a platoon DH who can occasionally fill in as a utility defender when necessary. And rumors are already stirring that that's exactly what teams are looking at in him. He was legitimately one of the best hitters in the league this year, just have to manage his workload. Veteran leadership with legit offense is something few AL teams would want to pass on
This offseason worries me. The right side of the infield needs replacing, potentially 3B as well, and not to mention we have the same BP issues as last offseason. Plus everyone's now a year older. I got mocked when I said this on a prior post, but I'm not optimistic about the next couple years given the competition in the NL East and the average age of the team. It may be time for a soft, one-year reload before the youngsters hit their prime years.
Of all the gin joints . . .
No, let me begin again: Of all the Nat free agents not given QOs, you'd keep Rodney.
To paraphrase George C. Scott in "Patton": God, I love this blog!
@CoolSNY. Can’t possibly judge Kieboom on that number of games at the plate. In terms of the fielding, looked a bit like a guy who had game speed up on him in the majors. But that really isn’t a predictive indicator of how he will do if given the extended chance. And he *really* should be given an extended chance so the Nats have a good sense of what they have. His AAA performance has been very strong. What do I mean by extended chance? Commit to him being the starting 2B for April and May at minimum. There’s really no reason not to, given out personnel.
BTW this speaks to why I think it’s more critical to continuing to compete in NLE to bring back Rendon than Strasburg. Our infield depth is nonexistent, as is out impact bats outside of Soto. He would be left utterly exposed in lineup and nobody would pitch to him. If you don’t resign Rendon or somebody with a comparable-ish bat (Donaldson) they’re not going to score enough runs IMO.
Personally of all the FAs listed, I don’t think I bring any of them back, unless Hudson will take a 1 year deal and Zim if he’s willing to take literally like 1 year 2 mil. On the open market Zim would not get a major league job....so he needs to take something like that. I would rather clear all of this dead payroll from dozier, Gomes, Adams, ascab, these relievers, etc and sign Rendon....then let some kids play to see what we have.
But my take? Do everything you need to—including overpaying—to keep Rendon. Give the 2B job to Kieboom out of camp. Sign Howie to be your backup 2B and your part time/platoon 1B. Sign a lefty platoon 1B for cheap such as Moreland (won’t cost much). At C there are actually a ton* of options to replace Gomes....you want somebody who is defensively solid though to pair with Suzuki....I would look at Maldonado or Chirinos.
If signing Rendon means you can’t keep Stras, (1) that’s totally irrational you just won the WS re set the luxury tax and resolved MASN u are swimming in extra dough...but (2) if that’s the case, go spend that money on the bullpen and a lesser starter to replace Stras.....so a Zach Wheeler or Odorizzi and then a Will Smith etc. personally I don’t see why we can’t do all of this and go over be tax given last years success and the opportunity to capitalize re the fan base, BUT whatever. (I do really like Odorizzi a lot though....he’s a guy I would target whether or not you keep Stras. I do NOT like MadBum who the Braves would be dumb to sign. Check out his numbers outside of Yellowstone-sized SF. They’re terrifying. He’s like a 5 ERA road pitcher now.)
@Harper. I think the lux tax is a fake meaningless cap, but assuming it’s important...would Nats go over it under following FA activity where they only do the following? (If u throw in Stras u definitely do, but what about....?):
(1) sign Rendon (30AAV)
(2) stras leaves, but sign Odorizzi or Wheeler (18-20 AAV?)
(3) Sign Moreland + Howie K (combined 15 AAV?)
(4) sign Chirinos or Maldonado (5-6 AAV)
(5) build new pen including Will Smith (25 AAV?)
I may be undershooting some of those guesses. Thats something like 100 mil in commitments to next year on top of what we currently have on books. I think only the SP and Will Smith would require multi year deals. With Stras instead of other SP option, it’s more like 110 additional mil. If you go need to shave a bit I suppose we could try a Raudy Reed with Suzuki and not sign the catcher...
Other FA i would definitely be checking in on: like Moreland, Eric Thames makes sense as LH platoon with Kendrick (or, Oy, Zim at 1B). I also would be interested in D’Arnaud at C. Yes he’s rarely healthy, but if he is paired with Zuk, perhaps we can squeeze 75 games out of him. One thing that could be a definite problem: shortage of reliably good relievers on market this year. Even the two BEST ones (Will Smith might take QO) and Will Harris...well....lets just say he threw a lot of innings in 2019 and uh...showed signs of wearing down.
I generally agree with BX regarding the next steps. I think the Nats should throw money at Rendon until he agrees to come back. You have Kieboom at 2B and then no one. And if Kieboom doesn't work out? Then it's even more important that you keep Rendon.
The Lerners are trying to have it both ways in *both* a) backloading/deferring deals and b) staying under the luxury tax threshold, which uses AAV in its analysis. See how trying to do both actually artificially handicaps the team? You need to increase AAV if you're deferring/backloading to match the market's present day values, so the Nats are actually giving themselves a tougher "cap" than other teams willing to reach the threshold. It somehow worked out this year. It won't work out again. The Lerners will have to bend on one or the other.....
Assuming they're willing to either a) go over the threshold OR b) stop deferring deals but still want to stay under the threshold, then they can probably cover Stras, Rendon, arb increases, and have their usual middle-market reliever offseason [probably can't go big on relievers unless they're willing to do both (a) *and* (b)].
BX I haven't heard about their resolving the MASN dispute. You got a link?
@mike k. It was a while ago. Just a court case resolved in Nats favor. https://www.federalbaseball.com/2019/8/23/20829262/judge-sides-with-washington-nationals-over-baltimore-orioles-masn-rights-fees-dispute
I remember seeing that. I was under the impression that there was still a fight for future rights fees/possibly getting out of that silly contract altogether.
I can't tell from that article - was the ruling only for prior rights fees of 2012-2016 or did the Judge establish a process for future rights fees? My understanding is the way the rights fees are negotiated is de facto against the Nats because both teams require receiving equal rights fees under the initial contract, and therefore if the Nats got what they deserved, the Orioles would get the same and MASN would go bankrupt. So the Nats get less than market and the Orioles more, so MASN can stay solvent. Then of course the Orioles get more of the "profit" since they own more of MASN. Was this addressed? The additional $100M for 2012-2016 is nice but the real victory would be getting a market rate into the future.
I have to assume that the Nats want to bring Zim back. He can still hit lefties, and if his pride will let him take $2-3M for a final lap I'm okay with that--presuming that Davey and Rizzo are willing to hard platoon him with a guy who'll fill the Adams/Lind role (I've suggested Eric Thames for that).
Cabrera put up a 98 wRC+ for the season, which is technically "below average" by definition, but he was very much not below average for the Nats and his career hitting suggests that he's likely to not be again. (His defense was also adequate for the Nats, though not actually good.) I'd like to see him return in a bench bat role (especially if Kendrick goes to the AL). Or if, God forbid, we don't resign Rendon or a suitable replacement (Donaldson, maybe Moustakas), he could be the starting 2B with Kieboom at third.
I have to think that Parra's intangibles were a significant part of the Nats' 2019 season story, but making him anything beyond OF5 would be a mistake. Maybe if Rizzo manages to trade Taylor for a BP arm to somebody who liked his October performance Stevenson could be OF4 and Parra OF5, but otherwise, yeah.
Hudson and Rodney I can't disagree with. Both guys are adequate bullpen filler, but Rodney is more likely to be priced appropriately to what he can do and come on a one-year deal. Though Hudson's glove toss game has to add at least $1/year to his contract value if he's going to close. Gomes...yeah, can't argue with that, either (catching-wise, I'm in the "spend the Zim savings on Grandal" camp).
So a bench of backup C-platoon 1B-Kendrick/Cabrera-Stevenson-Taylor/Parra, maybe.
Old (31+) have been cheaper than they should have been. If other teams follow the Nats (and Astros) and try to sign these guys, Nats could have a problem. But I don't see that happening. Still lots of tanking teams, and there will be a bunch of reasonably aged free agents out there. Certainly enough to find the 2.4 war players to surround Rendon and Soto. Without Rendon, I am confused about how they do it. Wheeler plus Donaldson? Seems hard.
@billyhacker. I would agree. I’ve looked at this 8 different ways, and i don’t see how the Nats realistically say with a straight face they’re gonna the to defend the title without Rendon. He’s just SO. SO. Critical to that team.
I suppose if you imagine a world where you have 35 million dollars to spend from no Rendon, you could get creative and sign Grandal for say 20, then Moustakas for 15....and frankly that may add up to the same value as Rendon. (Or Donaldson+ Grandal for way less total money but higher luxury tax hit....call it 110m on the books vs 240m on the books.)
But yeah. Now that they’ve re-set the luxury tax and with the amount flowing into the coffers off that WS run....I’m sorry but you can’t tell me that you’re not going to bring back your second MVP candidate in a row in consecutive seasons, particularly when we have nobody to replace him with. It would be too depressing to go out opening day with Cabrera, Kieboom, and Zim in the infield. Come on lerners.
Kieboom does worry me. Well, actually, I'll say that I'm not excited to see what he can do. More or less worried that a top prospect isn't what we had hoped. But there have been others who flunked their first cup of tea in the majors only to go on and be pretty special:
Kieboom: 39 AB / .128 / .209 / .282
Pedroia: 89 AB / .191 / .258 / .303
Trout: 123 AB / .220 / .281 / .390
Obviously I'm not saying Kieboom is going to turn into either of these guys, but it is unfair to judge him solely on 39 ABs. Not everyone is Juan Soto. Carter is our best prospect. We have a hole to fill. Why not give it to him? Here's the deal - if he does fail, but we have Rendon/Donaldson at 3B and Zimm/solid-platoon-guy at 1B... does it really matter? If we don't get 3B figured out, then yes, a Kieboom-failure-contingency-plan should be in place. 3B is crucial, as that is where our other big bat is going to play (maybe 1B like Thames then?). Its unrealistic to think Robles is going to graduate into an MVP-level bat to hit in front of/behind Soto. That guy has to come from the outside; either 1B or 3B.
@mike k; re MASN dispute - I understood the ruling as prior costs. Nothing set about the future, but it just throws a wrench in Baltimore's bid to continue their ways. Nats looking good for the future, but nothing is decided yet. We just got our money back.
@Ole PBN of course by "we got our money back" you mean, "The Nats got our money back," but I think you're right that the ruling regards past revenue explicitly and future revenue by establishing a precedent.
Given all the uncertainty across the infield, I am hoping the organization targets Brock Holt early. Fangraphs seems to think 2 years, 15M will do it. He could be our everyday 2B if needed (Kieboom -), but can also spell others around the infield. He's a lefty bat, so could split time with Zim at first (Kieboom +).
I don't see 2B as a big worry, and I think Sogard would be as good as Holt at half the price. There will be veteran guys like Scooter Gennett, Joe Panik, etc. waiting around for a major league job at 2B - it looks deep for retreads to stash in AAA or on the bench. If they can't get Rendon back, and end up getting Moustakas, they can hedge their bets even more.
Fun part of hot stove season? Rizzo tends to do unexpected & big things. Look forward to surprises.
@Nattydread 100% agree
I think they don't bring Rendon back. Mark Lerner a while back essentially said it is up to Rendon and his family now to do what is best for them. Sounds like Nats want him back but the Lerners aren't willing to go higher. A little crazy in my opinion. Also, Jon Heyman put something on Twitter about "Rendon offered to stay twice." Not sure what that means. The original post was about Rizzo talking to Boras this week about Strasburg and Rendon. We'll see I guess. Rendon kept saying that Boras worked for him last off season. I hope they bring them both back. Though it seems the Nats only bring back their own players if they stay at a slight discount.
This sign stealing stuff just keeps getting deeper and deeper.
I remember watching the WS with my girlfriend and she asked me why Suzuki had a thing on his arm and what it was. I said I didn't really know - the catcher has to relay signs to the pitcher, but they usually aren't complex, I said.
Welp.....https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/mlb/sign-stealing-in-the-world-series-the-nationals-had-a-plan-just-in-case/2019/11/13/f8bdce7a-0640-11ea-8292-c46ee8cb3dce_story.html
Eh...they say tech but its looking at a live feed from CF and banging for offspeed. Hardly some demonic scheme and easily defeated with multiple signs. Probably been going on in one form or another for decades.
The sign stealing thing bothers me some. I think it is one thing to steal signs from second base. I think it is quite another to set up cameras and a direct feed into the clubhouse. Remember the two home runs Bregman hit off Strasburg seemed to be on pitches he knew were coming. He didn't do anything else the entire series. The quote from Carlos Beltran was troubling as well. He pretty much said that there was nothing wrong with the set up. It was just the Astros trying to win in the "little things." I'll admit part of what bothers me is that it is the Astros. Between the Astros trading for a closer suspended for domestic violence, to their former assistant GM yelling at women reporters in the locker room about how great said closer is, to the organization accusing one of those reporters of making up her story, to the GM then playing the victim card and refusing to apologize, to blatantly cheating. The Astros aren't exactly a model organization right now imo.
I am curious about the Cabrera/Dozier situation. Harper values Dozier over Cabrera, but clearly Davey valued Cabrera over Dozier, and Dozier barely saw the field during the post-season (part of that was Howie playing every day). In the stretch run, Cabrera was effective for the Nats on offense AND defense, based on the stats I see on Baseball Reference. He put up twice as much WAR in about a quarter of the playing time. Why is Dozier therefore clearly better? Do we discount Cabrera's production as just a brief streak? I'm just wondering what the thinking on the Nats was and why Harper sees Cabrera as so inadequate. Based on salary vs. production, Dozier didn't amount to much, and Cabrera was a lucky find with high yield. Is there any reason to think Dozier will ever be close to his peak years again? Meanwhile Cabrera missed his career high in RBIs by just one... would consider resigning Cabrera because he will come cheap and I was not impressed by Dozier.
I don't think either guy is great, but why is Dozier a cut above?
Steamer and Depth Charts have Cabrera and Dozier as basically the same next year in terms of fWAR (1.6 vs. 1.7/1.8). Interestingly, the projections like Cabrera's defense more going forward, and vice versa for offense.
@Lou I do not agree. Using video to steal signs has been against the rules for a long time. It gives the other team a huge advantage that has nothing to do with the wily skill in trying to decipher signs, communicate, and hide your communication in plain sight, that accompanies a runner on 2B stealing signs. Also, it's not so easy for another team to defeat it. Read the Washington Post article I linked...what the Nats had to go through is insane and teams shouldn't have to do that when using video is already against the rules.
IMO this is something that the Astros a) knew was against the rules, and b) requires premeditation, planning, and multiple people in on the scheme, to accomplish. I don't think they have any right to complain about any punishment they receive considering those two things.
Will Smith to the Braves. 3/$39M plus an option for a 4th year at another $13M or a $1M buyout. This with Melancon, Greene, Jackson, and O'Day also on the roster (plus Newcomb if he doesn't go back to starting and whatever other flotsam and jetsam are still hanging around). Looks like AA intends to roll young and cheap in the rotation and spend heavily on a veteran pen to back them up. Kind of like the '19 Yankees with more upside and less veteran presents in the rotation, but the same kind of pitching staff construction.
Also, Odorizzi took the Twins' QO. Makes sense--$17.8M is higher than the AAV most sites predicted for him, and if he's good again he can try next year for the multi-year deal without the QO burden attached, which should increase suitors and make a bigger deal more likely. And if he slips a bit, he gets 17.8 million dollars as a consolation prize.
I texted a buddy after the first inning of Game 6 that Stras was either tipping his pitches or the Stros were stealing signs. They laid off every breaking ball, and crushed every fastball. I guess he admitted afterward he was tipping, but this sort of thing seems to happen a lot. Corbin too, had strange bursts of ineffectiveness, e.g. in the Dodgers series when they laid off every slider, and in his Game 4 start vs. Houston. But then in Game 7, he was suddenly unhittable, with guys swinging out of their shoes at the slider.
Wow I'm really surprised at how the NL MVP voting turned out. I would've thought Rendon would garner a lot more 1st/2nd place votes. I didn't think he'd necessarily win, but to be a distant third is really really surprising to me given that Bellinger's stats were being propped up by a hot start and Yelich not playing the last part of the year
Nah, Rendon wasn't even seriously part of the conversation until after Yelich's injury. Rendon got red-hot at the end of the year, which was great news for the Nats (especially when he continued it into the playoffs) but he was, for example, at 7.0 fWAR to Yelich and Bellinger's 7.8. (Honestly, Yelich got badly burned by his injury--and possibly by a bit of narrative push as well, since the Brewers made their big playoff push with him out of the lineup.) And, of course, voting takes place before the postseason, so Rendon's extended heroics (and the Nats pitching working Bellinger over like a tackling dummy) didn't give him any extra #narrative credit.
I'm glad Trout won again, though. Betts was actually a legit choice last year but most years it seems like the big challenge for the sportswriters is what excuse they can make to screw him out of it another time.
Not getting any Cy Young, MVP, Gold Glove, Manager of Year or RoY awards? Doesn't bother me AT ALL. This World Series run was much more fun gratifying than any of that, and its not even sour grapes. I'm sure all the players agree.
It plays to the narrative that the '19 Nats were built to be a team. Not that we didn't have anyone in the conversations. We did. But the team peaked during the post season and those performances don't "count" for hardware. Lord, the performances did count nonetheless!
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