Say it ain't so, Joe!
Well it isn't so... yet. But with sporting events being cancelled left and right to avoid unnecessary travel, close contact, and gatherings* it is easy to see a near future with no baseball. How long? Let's think about what we could see.
Low
Probably first we will see a end to ST crowds. That seems apparent. What this effects is nothing really. Not as far as the season goes
Next we may see a pausing on Spring Training games for two weeks. This wouldn't do too much of anything either. Practices would presumably continue
After that you'd escalate to no Spring Training at all. No practice, training, intrasquad scrimmages. This might cause a delay as players would only have less than a week to get back into ST shape but they could still push it to get it started on nearly the same day
Mid
A complete cessation of activities for more than two weeks would likely cut into the season. They could do a month now and maybe fit in 154 games (early season schedule is a bit lighter for weather make-up possibilities). I'd say that currently this is the most likely lightest situation we'll end up with as two weeks probably won't clear everything up (we'll need at least a week just to get a sense on where we are disease wise)
As you go more than a month you start to get into needing a good amount of pre-season practice now that they've been sitting a while (I'd imagine 2 weeks or so of pre-season) and more games cut. So a month pause today might lead to 154 game season but a 6 week pause now wouldn't lead to 145 games but something like 120 or lower.
High
Once you get much more than two months you start to get to the half-season possibilities. You start with the exhibition All-Star Game and then go into the season. Understand they'll try to fit in some sort of season regardless. Half a season and the all important playoffs is better than none
When do they bother cancelling the season fully? Hmmm I'd say you'd have to start drifting into August for a start date. There really probably isn't a time when they can't squeeze some blood from this stone but you start to functionally get to a weather issue again. They might even be tempted to do an unofficial / official tournament thing Sept / October just to get something out of the year, but when you start drifting into playing in November you start to limit yourself geography wise and profits can't be that high to say - have a Tuscon tournament in December.
*Sports are basically the worst at this, being a job that requires close contact, asks for gatherings, and depends on travel. All for entertainment purposes.
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6 comments:
I mean it's somewhat similar to the NBA, right? If one player tests positive, you basically have to shut down the Grapefruit or Cactus league. If a player on the Nats tests positive, you have to quarantine all of the Nats (and likely Astros since they share a facility) and quarantine all of the teams that have played the Nats and Astros in the last two weeks. You don't have to go far to quarantine the entire Grapefruit League. It's even more likely in Arizona since all of the Cactus League teams are more compact around Phoenix rather than spread out across Florida.
Harper, what do you think MLB will actually do? Do you think we'll end up with a half-season? No season?
Not holding you to a prediction, just curious what you think is the most likely outcome given what we know today
Really curious about the impact of <162 game season on players' service time and salaries.
NYS - not necessarily given that baseball contact is more limited but that's probably what you'd do. And yeah, if you do that then you set in motion something where the league can't go on.
GCX - I had a difft opinion this morning, but from what I'm hearing it sounds like something like 2 weeks off, more ST after that, delay OD, 154 games? That's the starting point. Where do I think it'll end up? Two months off games restarted Memorial Day weekend, maybe without fans, maybe with.
two cents - in a strike they negotiate that service time is awarded. I don't know really - I'd guess that if it's small enough they'd give it to them and if it's long enough they'd scale it to some degree. The real question is if the whole season goes.
Welp. There's our answer. Apparently MLB will delay OD two weeks. This Tecatevirus is pretty lame.
OLE PBN - basically chose 3. we might be moving to 3 weeks rather than 2s
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