Hall of Fame - Part 3

Lots of guys you can't expect Bill James to have bet on getting in from here on out.  More interesting is the guys he bet on that failed. 

2016 - McGriff, Gooden (Piazza, Griffey)

Piazza was really good young catcher but it's hard to bet on a catcher with two years under his belt.  Griffey was pretty much on his way and he played a good long while, so I imagine 2018 was just a hedging of bets.

McGriff was a guy who in 1994 had just put up 7 straight years that set him up for the Hall, but didn't quite make him a lock.  His back half of his career has mostly good with a couple of very good years but nothing like pre-1994. Honestly he was one more great year away from 500 HR and probably getting in but without that he only got to 40%.

Gooden was a long shot by James. It makes more sense if you think he put him on this earlier like some of those guys that didn't stick. At the end of 1993 Gooden was only 28, had been extremely durable and had 154 wins. 12 wins a season for another 10 years isn't crazy and that gets him to 275 wins at age 38 and a decent shot at 300. Bump it to 14 wins a year and he's there. But in 1994 he got suspended cocaine, and then again. Age, injuries and addiction took it from there.

2017 - Thomas, Sierra (Pudge, Raines, Bagwell) 

Pudge was a three year AS and GG and really young but you don't bet on a catcher that had one above average year as a hitter.  He had Raines in earlier (see first post). Raines looked pretty good for 3K hit but spent his last half-decade playing half-time based on injury. That and clearly not being Rickey (who is in a top tier HoF player) slowed his entry. Bagwell is in in 2019.  A good bet based off his great career start.

Frank Thomas I talked about last time. 

Yes, that is Ruben Sierra. Ummm... Yeah. The thing is Ruben started really young - playing 113 games as a 20 year old. Through 1993 he had played at least 151 games each season and at 27 stood at 1300 hits and 170 homers. Doubling that only takes him to age 35 and gives him 2600 hits and 340 homers. In other words he would Biggio his way to 3000.  But basically starting in 1994 he'd never really be healthy again and get no where close - out the first year.

2018 - Griffey Jr, Alomar (Hoffman, Chipper, Vlad, Thome)

By 1994  - Thome had shown he was a great slugger, but hadn't yet put up a full season. Chipper had 8 games under his belt. Hoffman was a 2 year reliever at 26 with 25 saves under his belt. Vlad hadn't played yet. No shame not picking any of these.

Griffey and Alomar I talked about before

2019 - Bagwell, Juan Gonalez (Rivera, Edgar Martinez, Mussina, Halladay).

By 1994 - Rivera and Halladay hadn't played yet.  Edgar Martinez had a great 1992 but was turning 32 with 600 hits and 60 homers to his name and was a poor fielder. He then ran off seven great offensive years but too late for James to see.  Mussina is an interesting case. If you WERE going to pick a young pitcher Moose was as good a choice as anyone. In four seasons he was durable and won 50+ games and looked to be maturing into the type of pitcher that could do that regularly. But James didn't bet on pitcher. The youngest arm he picked to make it, McDowell, started in the majors in 1987. 

Bagwell we've talked about. 

Juan Gone? By 1994 he was a premiere power hitter leading baseball twice in homers and at 140 at age 24 seemed a good bet to easily clear 300 and maybe threaten 500.  It was a gamble but a decent one. By the time he was heading into his age 32 season he was just a couple homer under 400.  500 seemed guaranteed and loftier goals not out of the question for a guy who average 36 homers a year for over a decade. He would hit only 40 more.  Given the suspicion of steroid use that was enough to make him a non-entity on the ballot, peaking at just over 5% before going off.



So how did Bill James do?  As expected he did well with players that he knew the entire or nearly the entire careers of.  But once he got to knowing only about 50% things broke down. Because of that uncertainty he probably leaned too heavy on what he did know putting in guys late like Kaat, Parker, Simmons, and Murphy. As we got even further out - heading past 20 years of voting (or 15 years of playing plus wait time) it was a little pointless as guys fit entire careers into time he didn't see. He also didn't pick much pitching, which is unrelaible, but left gaps that guys other people might have picked would fill.

Best pick - probably Eckersley who was pretty old in 1994 and a good bet but not a sure thing. At that age he could lose it immediately and it would have been a tougher call.

Worst - Al Oliver might be it because he didn't miss anything of his career and had him in in 7 years and he didn't last one round but I think Oliver was just underrated.  I'd go with Butler, a guy who James loved as a player but stats wise is a tough call.