Hall of Fame

Games are getting close, and I think it's going to happen one way or another (50 game might be it). But in the meantime I got bored and on Twitter ended up putting up a pic of a Bill James Hall of Fame guess list and saw that we had passed the end point.  So why not see how he did?

This was written in 1994 but as you'll see it was clearly it was started before then. So imagine he knows everyone eligible through either the 1999 or 2000. After that he starts guessing not only how increasing careers go, but also when people retire, and how many years it takes for them to get in.


1995 - Schmidt, Rice (Schmidt in).  Schmidt was obvious first ballot. I've said my piece on Rice (what you weren't reading this blog 10 years ago?).  James' idea that he was a first ballot was well off what the writers thought. He'd get 30% this year and would get in way later in 2009 on his last ballot.

1996 - Sutton, Rose (No one). Rose was a hope. James at the time thought Rose was railroaded.  Sutton got to 300 and was a definite in. The question was how long it would take. James gave him third ballot. Instead he was stuck in the 60%s at this point with Niekro and Perez. He would get in a couple years later in 1998

1997 - Garvey, Niekro (Niekro) Niekro was same boat as Sutton and James nailed this one. Garvey never got over the hump of being nothing more than a good hitter and not for a particularly long time. He was at 35.3% here and would peak at 42%

1998 - Gary Carter, Oliver (Sutton) Carter would deservedly get in as one of the best catchers but it would take a while (2003). He was at 42% here. Al Oliver was like Garvey - good hitter, longer career but less team success. His inclusion here shows that this list was made sometime in 1990/1991 and then updated poorly when it got closer to print. Oliver was undeservedly knocked out first ballot in 1991.

1999 - Ryan, Brett (Ryan, Brett, Yount) Almost nailed it. Yount also sneaked in with 77%.

2000 - Yount, Fisk (Fisk, Perez).  Tony Perez is a real weak choice and you can understand why James never had him in but last big name from the Big Red Machine got him in with 77%

Some guessing definitely starts here.

2001 - Dawson, Winfield (Puckett, Winfield)  Puckett is probably remembered as a better player than he was but he was clearly on the path to near 3000 hits, was loved, and had big postseason moments, so James had it right. It was only his shocking retirement in 1995 that puts him in at this point and not later. Dawson would ill advisedly try to play another year in 1996 so wasn't on this ballot. He'd have to fight the steroid led HR explosion to get in in 2010.

2002 - Murray, Ozzie Smith (Smith)  He got Smith right.  Murray would be first ballot but would like Dawson push a year longer

2003 - Parker, Kaat (Murray, Gary Carter)  Kaat would peak at a mere 30% and drop off the ballot here with only 26%  Dave Parker peaked in his second year 24% and would not get in and in his last year (2011) he'd be at 15%.  This may be a product of James going with two in a year but clearly his worst guess set.

2004 - Eckersly, Simmons (Eckersley, Molitor) - Eckersley right.  Simmons would actually drop off the ballot way back in 1994. The veterans committee would put him in in 2019. Not sure if he missed when Molitors would retire or how long it'd take for him to get enough votes. My guess is latter. Molitor had a weirdly great age 39 season that made his 3000 hits not feel like the death march some players end up with.

2005 - Boggs, Ripken (Boggs, Sandberg) Nails Boggs. Ripken was an obvious HOF but bouyed by a great hitting half season in 1999 (surrounded by a very mediocre second half of his career - it'd be interesting if he'd have been so guaranteed a HoF if he didn't have the consecutive games played record. He'd have made it sure - but first ballot?  Not sure) he would play a couple more blah years putting off his enshrinement. Sandberg sneaks in here at 76%
2006 - Henderson, Molitor (Sutter) - You can forgive James for not putting in Sutter, an unispired choice, who gets in with 76% on nearly his last ballot in a year filled with no one special.  Rickey, a definite first ballot guy, would play for 3 more years beyond this. (in the majors - more in other places. Rickey is a baseball player)

2007 - Gwynn, Clemens (Gwynn Ripken) - Get Gwynn right. Clemens would go SIX more seasons purely based on fancy training I've heard. People don't like excessive training so they haven't voted him in.  Jealous!

2008 - Puckett, Murphy (Gossage) - James did think Gossage would get in but much later. He was filling a gap  The early retirement of Puckett took him out of here and this was the start of a relatively slow run as a lot of 80s stars had issues having full great careers. This would have been a decade into Murphy's try at enshrinement and James took a gamble that he'd slowly gain support and get in.  Nope. Peaked in year 2 at 23% off the ballot in 2013.

2009 - Morris, Lee Smith (Henderson Rice) Rice at this point was helped by a lack of strong candidates just getting in with 76% in his last year. Morris would have to wait another decade to get in, finally doing it in 2018.  Smith got one more All-Star year after James would have made this list but it didn't really change anything about his career.  He'd peak at 50% but be the last player to go 0-15 in ballots. They now only get 10 years.  But Lee would get in the very next year on the vet committee ballot.

2010 - Raines, Sandberg (Dawson).  What an intersting trio. Dawson pegged in years ago by James, finally got in here finally cracking 75%. Sandberg, in reverse was expected to drag a little but got in several years before this. He had a mid career lull that James probably thought would have more impact given Ryne didn't have a long period of greatness. Raines would actually take until 2017 but he'd get in with a huge 86% when everyone realized not being Rickey didn't mean this guy wasn't great.

I'll break here and do the rest tomorrow. Really some solid guessing even if I think it wasn't that hard in 1994 to get to these names here. After this it gets a bit tougher as these guys on the ballot could have 10 years that James didn't see. You start judging less and less career from here on out.