Strasburg hit the mound on Friday. Not a word about anything wrong. All the stories this weekend (here's the Post) about it were about a guy who underwent successful surgery, recovered, started conditioning again, and now is on the last lap. From here what we need to see are
1) A second ST stint on the mound (makes sure the "I was doing this all along" isn't all a smoke screen)
2) A first start of the season
3) A second start of the season
Is this bar a little high? Maybe, but I'll remind you that Strasburg has pitched in all or part of 11 seasons. The number of seasons he hasn't missed a bit of time to injury is 2. Two. Out of 11. Sorry, but Strasburg doesn't get the benefit of the doubt here.
The biggest FA move of recent days is the Mets signing Taijuan Walker. He's probably not going to become an ace for the Mets. Remember what we said about Strasburg? Well Walker is like 0 for 7. He's a mess, a talented mess, but a mess. If he can be healthy for a good chunk of the season though that gives the Mets another option when they were already 6 deep. The Mets have been plagued with good on paper staffs ruined by multiple injuries. The more good arms they load up on, the better.
Odorizzi is still out there and would immediately kick the Phillies up a half a step (and at a clear #4 they need that half-step) but it appears from all indications they are done. Another 75% done job by the Phillies management and a likely finish that will represent that effort.
7 comments:
2 out of 11 seasons! Why did the Nats EXTEND Strasburg? He's only going to get more injury prone as he ages. I guesa he opted out and they felt they had no choice, but $$@5!!
It should be mentioned that Harper's 2 of 11 is a little misleading. There are 3 more seasons where he only missed a couple starts and another 3 where he missed significant time but still pitched most of the season (22-24 starts).
Another way of putting it would be that, in the 9 seasons since his TJ and including missing almost all of last year, Stras started 223 games out of an expected 271.
So it's not like he's never hurt, but we should keep it in perspective.
BH - because he's good and like Anon says he's missing weeks usually, not months
Anon - I'd say 276 expected but anything between 268-276 is fair. We don't want to undersell his injuries here either. Yes he's not out for half a year every year but if he has 24 starts that means he's missing 8-9 or like a quarter of the season. And objectively he's missing more time recently than before. Since TJ we can go he's roughly missed...
1/8th, 1/10th, NONE, 1/4th, 1/4th, 1/8th, 1/3rd, NONE, 3/4ths
Granted last year was special but you rolling average that and it's going to show a projected increase. The guy isn't fragile yet but he's one big injury from that.
I am a little mystified that Nats gave him 7 years. I understand that the Nats wanted to ensure that he retire as a National, it was not like any other team was going to offer him 35 million per year for 7 years. I could see a 5 year deal for 30 million annually which would have taken him to age 36 and 150 million guaranteed. He had just moved his family to DC earlier that year and is a bit of a homebody who does not like changes and with his injury history, I doubt that most clubs would be very reluctant to offer more.
Harper - 100% agree that he's hurt more often than the median ace, and that's a totally legitimate mark against him. One that will likely derail his HOF case, for example. Didn't mean to undersell it.
I do think 276 is a crazy theoretical ideal, though. Max has 267 over those 9 years, and that feels like a practical high water mark in terms of plausible durability.
And, actually, that's one of the reasons I'm more worried about Max than Stras for this year. Stras has come back from lots of different injuries and, over and over again, he's been able to rehab himself back to being an ace. Whereas with Max, he hasn't had to do that, so maybe he can and maybe he can't.
(As an aside, by rate stats, Strasburg is clearly a HOFer. His career ERA- of 79 and FIP- of 74 rank 51st and 9th respectively among starters with 1000+ innings. His 10.58 K/9 is 4th and 4.49 K/BB is 6th. He has been really really good for us.)
Pitchers don't miss a random start here and there like players have a day off, mainly because they can shift things around to give them an extra day if necessary. So I stick to 32-33 starts as a full season, since usually you try to get your best guys one more, which set 268-276. But you are right that's a high bar that is almost never hit. If you want to put it at just most starts by any player (so % of the most durable player in reality than % of the most durable player in theory) It's Lester who has 269.
No one has hit an average 33 starts in 5 consecutive years since James Shields from 2012-2016 (though Max came within a start of it). If we cut it to three Verlander did it from 2017-2019 (obv 2020 causes issues) and Cole, Greinke, Corbin, and Porcello were all one start away. So it's not a crazy bar, but it is one that for an extended stretch is next to impossible. It's never getting hurt for a decade. Sheilds was close 07-16, Haren just one start off 2005-2014, but last guy to do it was Derek Lowe 2002-2011 (and Buerhle same time frame)
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