Got swept. To be honest it wasn't all that shocking. The Nats starting pitching is in shambles right now. If a series doesn't line up with Max, who isn't MAX anymore but is still usually pretty good, then it's a tough series to win. But this was to be expected. Like I said at the start, a .500 team might go 4-10 in this stretch. The Nats ended up going 5-9 and missing my goal.
Hold ground in next 6 (27-35)Sweep the Pirates at home (30-35)Beat the Mets at home (33-36)Beat the NL East rivals (PHI 2, MIA 4) away (37-38)- FAIL
Survive a brutal pre ASG run (home for NYM(1), TB (2), LA (4) @SD (4) @SF (3)) (43-46)FAIL - Win a homestand vs SD/MIA (46-49)
- Sweep the Orioles away (49-49)
The next goals haven't changed though. The Nats have 9 games after the ASB before the division gauntlet begins and we're already asking for a 7-2 run. You can't ask for 8-1. Why not ask for them to win them all? 49-49 would still be .500 and would still likely be close enough to catch the Mets (who probably go 4-5 or 5-4 in the same time period putting the Nats 3 or 4 games out). Is it as close as you like it to be? Is it in "ok definitely go out and get someone" range? No. But it is close. What you've lost is that cushion. Yes, there was always a one-game cushion built in.*
The real problem is it brings the Nats very close to the trade deadline (July 30) and not in that "go for it" position though. That makes the Nats have to make a deal, if they choose to, on faith. A lot about this will be how healthy the Nats are come the end of this 9 game stretch. If they are all together healthy and 49-49, that's a team that managed to play 96 win pace ball for a quarter of the season NOT healthy, now coming together at the right time to push past the Mets, et al. Maybe you only end up with 87/88 wins but the idea is you pushing past them means pushing them down while you go up. They don't get there. If they aren't healthy and end up even 48-50... I don't know why you try. You might continue playing like the best team in the East for the rest of the year but you are at 86/87 wins and is that enough? What if you slip just a fraction? Are you going to bet on an 85 win team making it? 84? We're at that point people where the difference between success and failure lies.
We won't go into any "has to" numbers yet (bc so much depends on where everyone stands going in) but the post ASB schedule breaksdown as this -
- The prelude - as described above SD/MIA at home then Orioles away
- Division Guantlet Part 1 - @PHI(4), CHC, PHI(4), @ATL, @NYM, ATL
- Intermission - TOR(2), @MIL, @MIA
- Division Guantlet Part 2 - @NYM, PHI, NYM (5!), @ATL
- Recovery - @PIT, MIA, COL
- Recovery on the Move - @MIA, @CIN, @COL
- BOS
That second part of the recovery is a little sneaky - Miami and Cincy aren't bad and there are no breaks so the Nats would be going from DC to MIA to CIN to COL with no rest. I still think they could roll through it if needed but a dying Nats squad could break down to end they year at that point.
Anyway rest up Nats - Let's see how healthy they are coming out of this break (Stras?) and if they can go 7-2. A quick bad start could be all it takes to trigger sell mode.
*Now if you want to dig really into it, the Nats could probably lose 2-3 more games, like go 4-5 themselves, and be ok. There are that many games in the division left that they can make that up. HOWEVER, something like this means they have to go on a dominating run. In those 31 games they can't go 17-14 but would need to 21-10 or something like that.
7 comments:
I love your optimism -- but I don't share it.
This is the Nats starting rotation: Max, Corbin, Fedde, Espino, Lester. Max had one bad game, but is still good. Corbin is up and down, but even when the other team isn't scoring, he's not striking anyone out, which is a bad sign. Fedde is a 5th starter, incapable of giving more than 5 innings. Espino is AAAA junk ball pitcher. Lester is awful, and would probably be out of the rotation if Strasburg or Ross were available.
On offense, the Nats are missing Schwarber -- probably for months. And even when he comes back, I don't expect he'll be hitting 16 home runs each month. The Nats are missing Yan Gomes, which is a big loss on both offense and defense. Soto has been good, but not close to what we expected. Robles is flirting with the Mendoza line. Starlin Castro has a miserable OPS for a guy with a good batting average, because he has no walks and no power. This is not a team that is going to score much.
The bullpen is a bit healthier with the return of Hudson (a big plus), but there will never be enough arms to cover for Fedde, Espino and Lester.
At this point, the Nats are not an 81 win team. The Mets are. I think the Phillies will get better. The Braves are stung by the loss of Acuna.
There is no chance for a wild card. SF, LA, and SD are MUCH better teams. So, the Nats would have to win the Division. That's not going to happen.
Sell at the deadline (but keep Max).
To me, it felt like the previous gauntlet (and likely the season) shifted on the 2 Max starts. If Finny and Huddy were back a week earlier, maybe they find a way to get the ball to Hand in the game where the Nats were up on the Dodgers 3-1 after 6. And if Max gets the relief pitcher making his batting debut out, the Nats probably go on to win that game too. Then the conversation would be ‘Sad ending to the gauntlet with the SF sweep, but hey, they went 7-7, quite respectable given the level of competition, and are still in the mix!
Now, selling seems likely
Honestly, all I ask at this point is that they do something. Either buy or sell, but don't sit on our hands. If Rizzo and the rest of the brain trust think we're cooked, then it's time to start selling off assets. I don't necessarily mean "Fire sale! Burn it all to the ground and start over!" because that stinks, but to realize value from assets that aren't going to help. Show expiring contracts the door--and if there are guys we don't want to show the door (players like Max and Trea, for example), then get to work on extensions now so that we can count on having them (barring injury) going into the offseason rather than guessing what's going to happen. If we think we have a chance at making the playoffs (such as if the rest of the division continues to stumble and we start/continue doing well post-ASB), then make aggressive moves. But either fish or cut bait; don't just sit there letting the clock tick.
Asdrubal Cabrera is hitting. Go get him - he can't be that expensive. And where's Lucroy??
I don't even want to think about where this season is going or what's next. It's depressing. The Nats drafted a DH, so that's even more depressing.
Hard to call this a FAIL. Missed by one win.
Granted, the 3-0 start raised expectations --- and made the poor ending even more grim.
The team was limping along by SF. Without Schwarber, Gomes, SS, Ross.
Unless he has access to injury information unavailable to us, Rizzo has to go for it. There is still a magic path to the playoffs, however unlikely. Rizzo is more likely to bet on a run than to throw in the towel.
We haven't seen a transformational trade deal for a long time. Now would be the time to get a pitcher ready to blossom.
@Kevin Rusch: I think Lucroy is in ATL.
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