Updating and adjusting the board
Hold ground in next 6 (27-35)Sweep the Pirates at home (30-35)Beat the Mets at home (33-36)Beat the NL East rivals (PHI 2, MIA 4) away (37-38)- FAIL
Survive a brutal pre ASG run (home for NYM(1), TB (2), LA (4) @SD (4) @SF (3))(43-46)FAIL - FAIL
Win a homestand vs SD/MIA (47-48)FAIL - Sweep the Orioles away (48-50)
The Nats didn't win the homestand. After losing 2 of 3 to the Padres they had to sweep the Marlins to do it but they couldn't muster up any offense yesterday and instead split the homestand 3-3. As we've talked about endlessly the mediocrity of the NL East has kept the Nats in it despite now falling two games off the pace I wanted them to be at but a sweep of the Orioles is very much needed. Not HAVE TO HAVE, but close.
Before the Marlins series though I came up with a simple metric for the rest of season : Don't Lose Another Series.
If the Nats didn't lose another series (meaning winning all odd-game series and splitting all even game ones) starting with the Marlins won they would end up with 87 wins and 87 wins just might win this division. Especially since the Nats would be gaining at least a couple games on every NL East team H2H. The Mets would have to go 37-32 to get there - certainly not a given, in fact probably around what you'd expect them to do.
Can the Nats win at a 60% pace the rest of the year? Probably not! But if you harbor hope for the season this give you an easy way to keep overall pace. You don't have to think about who you are playing, or if they are in division, or if you are home and away. Very simple. Each series not lost is keeping pace. Each 3 game sweep is a series loss cushion you have for later. And each series loss is a 3 game sweep you need later. The Nats swept Miami meaning they kept pace. Just 21 more series to go
I'll come up with my own more specific goals as we move along, but this does work rather well. So for now sweep the Os or beat the Os. Either way works.
8 comments:
Absolutely need Strasburg back as his usual self for the last two months of the season if the Nats want a real chance at winning the division.
The pitching isn't the problem. While it's not team carrying like we'd like, the real problem at the end of the day is the offense. Managing a single run against the Marlins pitching staff is pretty abysmal, and even if it was Stras/Max out there every single day, you're going to lose more games than you win if you only put a 1 on the board.
If the Nats are going to make a move at the deadline, it's gotta fill the gaping hole left by Castro. Castro was relatively mediocre, so it shouldn't be too hard to fill, but the Nats offense is sputtering and they can't be running Jordy Mercer or Andrew Stevenson out there every day. What that player looks like I'm not sure, it's not going to be Bryant or another big name, it's gotta to be someone like Candelario in Detroit or McMahon in Colorado. Or maybe Rizzo finds another aging vet to sign that somehow puts it together once on the team like Escobar is currently doing
CP - no it is the pitching. Or at least more so the pitching right now. Since Mid June the offense has been delivering. I'm sure it could use a Schwarber replacement but it actually hasn't done terribly with him out. The pitching had a GREAT run in mid June of like a dozen games but outside of that has been pretty average and now is faltering badly. I guess you could say it's the competition but it's been a long year and a dozen game stretch isn't enough. This team isn't built to win by outslugging teams and would need a minor overhaul to do it. It's built to score ok and win with pitching and it's further from that second point.
While none of Lester/Ross/Corbin/Fedde are unusable - sometimes they are even good - they aren't consistent and present as 4/5s A 1 and 4 4/5s isn't good. Strasburg back would help but you'd still probably need one more reliable arm. The RP situation is similar except without Max as the anchor - maybe Hudson can be that guy but it really feels like a group that's one shut down closer short to be effective over the long term. Hand didn't end up being that - but if he did they'd still probably need a reliable 7th to push everyone back one.
Assuming healthy...
Scherzer (1)
Strasburg (1)
Corbin (4)
Ross (4)
Fedde (5)
Lester long relief.
I feel like this is a decent staff. Strasburg hasn't been healthy so everyone has to move up a notch and then, as you say, we've got 4 4/5s which just isn't good enough. The good news is that the biggest problem is solved by a guy already under contract. The bad news is he can't seem to stay on the field (queue the broken record).
We were 1 run from a sweep. Not the outcome we wanted, but not too shabby. Beat the Os or let's plan for next year.
@Harper: Cannot argue. I mean, what more do you need to say about the offense--and the pitching--than it scored 8-8-4-9 in four consecutive games against the Padres (a top-3 team in the NL), but that the Nats lost three of those games?
Bluntly, a meaningful run *demands* that we get at least one high-end starting pitcher (2019-grade Corbin, basically) for the last two months, and two would be preferable. An extra reliever wouldn't hurt, though Hand-Hudson-Finnegan-Voth-Espino-Suero-Clay-Harper isn't a per se bad group.
(I grade the relief pitching similarly to the offense--"good enough, but can be better"--as opposed to the starting pitching, which HAS to improve.)
The question is, where does this starting pitching come from? Strasburg hasn't been healthy since 2019 and he's been bad when he's pitched, probably because he wasn't healthy. Corbin also has been bad since 2019, but he basically just fell off the cliff without having to be hurt to do it. Ross has pitched like a legit 3/4 guy this year, but he's hurt and who knows what he'll be like when he comes back and even then that's not good enough. And trades...starting pitching is hard to find at any time, and everything written about this year's market says that it's going to be the most expensive thing out there because everybody needs it.
Ideally, the rotation would end up something like: 1. Max; 2. Healthy, Good Stras; 3. New Guy; 4. Healthy 2021-level Ross; 5. Corbin/Lester/Fedde. That's a rotation that can win the division. Meanwhile, what we'll probably end up with is 1. Max; 2. Pray Stras is Good Again; 3. Hopefully 2021-level Ross; 4-5. 2 of Corbin/Lester/Fedde. And if that's the rotation...then honestly, I don't want Rizzo to tinker (for rentals--if he can make a deal for controllable/immediately extended players that's a different story) with other areas.
(My deadline pipe dream addition is that Rizzo catches Minnesota on a "we're feeling cheap" day and gets them to give the Nats Berrios+Donaldson for a relatively low prospect cost by eating all of Donaldson's contract. It's called a pipe dream for a reason, because I'm well aware it ain't happening.)
I think Donaldson would put the Nats over the Luxury Tax, no? Can’t see Russo making that move even if the prospect cost is reasonable
*Rizzo
@G Cracka X: Agreed; that's my #1 reason for assuming that it won't happen, even though I do believe the Nats reset the penalty I would think cramming back under the cap for 2022 would be nearly impossible given the raises due players in arb, the need for extensions, and the big contracts to Stras and Corbin--we'd basically have to suck it up and let Max walk in that situation. (Especially because we no longer have a "Ted Lerner wants a WS title" situation thanks to 2019, so ownership's less likely to approve crossing the softcap.)
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