Well if that wasn't a sign I don't know what was. The Nats should deal and when they do they may deal a fan favorite or two. If that happens there are definite teams you'd rather see the Nats deal with than other (assuming all else is the same - obviously return is important). So with the lack of anything else to talk about regarding playoff push - let's rank those teams from best location to worst location.
Acceptable, in context
Oakland - Getting recent perennial playoff choker Oakland a championship would actually make the legend of Max greater. Plus the Nats and A's always make trades. It feels natural.
San Diego - No titles, another division, usually bad. This would be ok.
Milwaukee - No titles, another division, but they've had their chances. Plus they just won an NBA title. Last thing I want to hear is Milwaukee : "Title Town".
Cincinnati - Not a big deal but doesn't feel like they deserve a title this year does it?
Not the Worst
White Sox - The Giolito/Max stuff would be terrible, and no one wants TLR to win again but White Sox championships are like gossamer. Do they even really exist? Lots of worse choices than this.
Giants - It's a great story. A bunch of old guys have one last run, fighting against two other squads that everyone figured would be the juggernauts of baseball. Except they have three recent titles and they are managed by Gabe Kapler. They don't need this. We don't want this.
Pain
St Louis - Ugh. Normally St. Louis would be much higher but like I said lots of bad choices out there. This falls to here because it's Max's home team and that's a little cool winning one with your home team. The rest? Very not cool.
Yankees - No one over 30 wants to see a guy going to the Yankees and winning another championship. But under 30 they may not care as much. As much. It's still the Yankees.
Boston - They've won recently. They are obnoxious about it. Yet they continue to paint themselves as underdogs. This would be terrible. IYKYK.
Constant in your face punishment for your sins
Mets - Now we get to the division rivals. The Mets are sad sack losers so are the best choice of the three, but they are also the type of sad sack losers who immediately act like they've always been big winners when ever they win.
Phillies - Carrying Bryce to a title? Can the Nats fans handle that?
Braves - Max on the mound. Late innings in a dominant start. The crowd is wild. And then they start the chop.
Dodgers - They just won!
Time to stop watching baseball
Tampa - Last thing I want is to see Max traded to a team that will automatically view the trade as a win because it doesn't matter if they get a title, they've got a compensation pick coming!
Houston - Cheating cheaters get to win again with MAX? Get to say "oh see we're not cheaters! We win!" I can't even lean into a Dusty feel good story here.
41 comments:
Why oh why are the Lerner's unwilling to extend Trey right now? Gamesmanship in the trade market? Seems to me the biggest trade deadline deal we should make is to extend him.
@Anonymous: I'm a big fan of Trea Turner, and would like to see his contract extended. The Nats control Turner through 2022, and then he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2023, when he will be 30 years old. So, let's say Turner gets a five year contract now -- covering 2022 (while still under team control), and then 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026. He'll be 30 in the first year of the four year extension, 33 at the end of the four year extension. Shortstops don't often make it into their 30s -- but he'd be getting paid as a SS, not a 2B. And he'll be very expensive. And the Nats are going to need a few years (probably more) to re-build (even if things go well). So, basically, Turner will be a very expensive player during a re-building period. Plus, the Nats history is to pay big $$ to pitchers not position players. Soto will be the exception -- and he'll be incredibly expensive. And the Nats are stuck with Strasburg (through 2026) and Corbin (through 2024).
Having said all that, I'd still like to see the Nats sign Turner. If we are being very optimistic, Strasburg could get healthy, and Corbin could return to being a #3. We'd have Soto, Turner, Strasburg and Corbin, and could build around them.
@Anon it's less the Lerners being unwilling and more on Trea/Boras's end. Tatis Jr got 14/$340 million, and Lindor signed for 10/$341 million. Trea is arguably as good as Tatis and almost certainly better than Lindor, so he's not crazy to think he's worth something similar. Barring any injury or regression, when he hits the market at 30 he may well expect something like 6/$240 million.
The only reason a team signs an early extension is if either a) they feel like they're getting a bargain (Albies), b) they have a young player to build around (Tatis Jr.) or both (Acuna Jr.). Trea will not be had for a bargain and he's arguably a little too old to rebuild around unless the team can get it done in 1,2, maybe 3 years (possible I guess but who knows, I hope so).
What makes anyone think the Nats/Lerners will extend either Turner or Soto?
Extending Turner is a bad idea exactly for the reason PF and el chupo just laid out: it'll be super expensive. The market for SS has skyrocketed with Lindor and Tatis, BUT look at all the FA SS coming down the pipe: Story, Semien, Seager, Correa, Baez, etc. Turner is going to be on the tail end of all those signings, so there's not going to be much of a market for a big name SS. If Turner decides to go to free agency, I'm not sure how much he's going to pull in just due to poor timing. If you want to extend Trea, it should be done next year, not right now
Tampa wouldn’t get a comp pick, right? I thought you do t get complete picks for players acquired mid-season via trade. Happy to be wrong on this belief.
Think the Padres would trade Tatis for Turner and Soto?
*Don’t get comp picks, that is
I know you can't give the QO to a player traded mid-season, but Max already received a QO so he can't get another one anyway. No idea about comp picks.
That said, my personal favorite Max destination would be Toronto, since they're my second-favorite team and my wife's favorite and I'd love to see him play Hired Gun a la David Cone and carry them to a WC berth down the stretch. Also, it would mean Vlad Jr. in the playoffs and as an Expos holdover I have fond memories of Vlad Sr.
On Trea, I see the point, but on the other hand, having a star player to build around for the next 5-6 years is always valuable. Teams need building blocks--with the Nats it's been the rotation, then Zim/Harper/Rendon/Soto in the lineup. Him aging off SS isn't too big a deal. What is a big deal is if he's expecting to be paid through age 37-38 or so.
Harper definitely earns his "heartless computer" rep for this article, though, since I'm pretty sure his heart would like to see Max as a Yankee, IIRC! (Or are you not wanting the Yankees to expend prospect capital on rentals for a probably-futile stretch drive, Harper?)
Max and Brad (Give The Other Team A) Hand to Oakland for Matt Chapman.
Yikes Thoracic Outlet Surgery for Stras. His extension may be the worst extension in baseball history having pitched only 26 innings since signing it. TOS has a much worse recovery record than Tommy John for pitchers
Neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.
The title of today's blog was truly prescient, Harper.
TOS--a genuine coin-flip as to whether he'll be able to come back, based on prior results. Some pitchers have been fine, and others are Matt Harvey. The only good news is being able to point and say "Yeah, it's this" and have a specific course of action.
Also, apparently Max won't approve a trade to the Mets, so that's good. I think that would be worse than anything other than the Astros.
GCX - Dezo : Didn't put it together but CGX is probably right. You can get a comp for having a QO rejected. I imagine if you can't offer a QO (and you can't) then you can't get that QO
Trea Turner pulled from the game because he tested positive for COVID.
What's next?
Doubtful max will go somewhere if he doesn't get an extension. That possibility limits the potential destinations further. As long as he isn't traded within the NL east, I could care less where he ends up. Dodgers have need, ability, and recognize his value so that seems most likely to me. We've never seen Rizzo sell, so it seems unlikely to me.
Worst week ever for the Nats?
2nd question: do you think the Nats have injury insurance in Stras’ contract? I’m thinking something like the Mets had for David Wright?
It's kind of depressing thinking about what a complete teardown of the Nats would leave standing:
C- Barrera, Rivera
1B - Zim
2B - Garcia
SS - Escobar
3B - Kieboom
LF - Stevenson/Parra
CF - Robles
RF - Soto
(Assuming here that Gomes, Bell, Harrison, Schwarber, and Turner all get traded.)
That leaves one genuine star player, four kids trying to show that they belong, two vets playing out one-year deals (one with meaning to the franchise, one just there), and a couple of AAAA guys out in left. And some big holes to plug in the offseason one way or the other.
The pitching staff isn't much better. Starting pitchers: Ross #1 (never thought I write that); Corbin #2; Espino #3; Fedde #4; and Lester #5. Bullpen: reliable relievers -- Finnegan. Other guys: Voth (terrible), Suero (terrible), Clay (bad).
On the bright side, at least the farm system will get a nice boost. And then with the aforementioned lineups and pitching staff, they should lose a lot of meaningless games, putting them in a good draft position for 2022 (which they need, given the state of the farm).
The real question for me is: in light of Stras’ surgery, will they try and compete in 2022, or punt a year and try again in 2023?
Well, last night's news story said that they hope Strasburg will be ready by the beginning of the 2022 season (per Zuckerman on Twitter). The "good" news, I suppose, is that TOS seems to either fix guys or leave them broken; it's not "a bad year after recovery and then they settle in." I suppose it largely depends on who Rizzo gets back from their trades, how ready they are, and what they can land in the FA market, and what they see from the kids. (Probably also depends on whether they get an offer they can live with for Turner--it's a lot easy to try in 2022 if you start the season with a second star in the lineup.
There's a path forward to competing in 2022, but it requires, say, Garcia and Barrera to step up and show that they're actual MLB talent, along with Stras's recovery. Then some signings in the Bell, Schwarber area to fill out the lineup and at least one SP--the Nats have always built from the rotation first, and they just don't have that now.
I think the real problem with 2023 is that there's nothing in the pipeline now that makes me think they have any better chance then than in 2022. Strasburg still needs to come back from injury, Corbin needs to remember how to pitch. Maybe Cavalli might be ready by then to prove that he's ready to pitch in the bigs, but unless this season's trades pick up prospects that fit that specific window I think aiming for 2023 is more of a failure state if the Nats are unable to compete in 2022 (i.e. none of our current kids work out, Rizzo loses out on needed FAs, Stras & Corbin break, etc.).
The optimist in me hopes:
1) Max goes to Tampa, we resign him in the offseason
2) Stras gets well
3) Cade actually might make a debut this Fall if AA starts going better, ready for 2022
4) We see some signs of life EOS from Corbin, Ross, etc.
5) Find ourselves a solid 3-4 guy with upside (early Gio type?)
6) Go hard after a solid MI in FE who can replace Trea if he leaves, option for 3B or 2B for now
7) Get another stone foot aging slugger for 1B who's cheap
Unfortunately, we don't really control 1-3. Scary place to be vs even 2 years ago.
Starling Marte to the As for former Nats draft pick Jesus Luzardo.
Too bad the Nats couldn’t have traded for him; seems like a good buy low opportunity
@ DezoPenguin
As a Jays fan too my dream (still) is to have Max starting the first Jays game in Toronto since September 2019 on Friday and Brad Hand closing it out. That would be a great story. Time starting to run out on that thouygh!
Might need PRIEST OSAS next year when Nats fans start casting lustful eyes on other, sexier teams.
@Max David
Well, that's half your wish in place, as Hand was indeed traded to the Jays for catcher Riley Adams.
@Max David one down, one to go!
Time to sell but wish this were like 10 years ago when you'd get better prospects in return. Tough to get excited about a new #15 prospect who will probably never make the majors in return for your (usually) above average closer.
Yeah I'm not wowed by Adams, his brief stint in the majors was awful, he's on the older side, and he hasn't even hit that well in the minors. Tres Barrera looks like a better bet than this guy. This was basically a salary dump
Eh... in AAA, there are only 6 catchers with a better wRC+ (100+ PAs). Two aren't prospects anymore (28 and 31), one is also 25 and two are 24. Ruiz for LAD is 22. Adams is old enough that I don't think you should dream on him improving much from here, but it's not like he's old for the level. He's a legit prospect.
You can read into his 30 PA cup of coffee if you want. But I think this is a pretty solid return for a rental reliever who is pitching pretty well, though not great and with pretty bad peripherals.
Adams isn't a blue chip prospect, is very unlikely to be someone we're happy is in the starting 8, and he doesn't do a lot to change our overall farm system, but he's alsop more likely to make the majors than almost anyone else we could have gotten for Hand. He's ready-ish (ie he's an above average bat at AAA, even if he ends up being a AAAA player who never gets a wRC+ over 80 in the majors), and it's a thin position for us and league-wide.
Also, it doesn't matter that much but Adams is a "young" 25. Just had his birthday a month ago, right before the cutoff.
19 batters have had more than 50 PAs on our AAA team this year. Adams is younger than all of them except three -- Garcia, Kieboom and Cody Wilson (whose wRC at AAA is 9).
He's younger than 12 of the 19 AA batters with 50+ PAs this year and the only AA batter with a higher wRC than Adams at AAA this year or had at AA two years ago is 24 year old Jake Alu.
Adams is not a guy I'd want for Max, but he's a totally cromulent return for Hand.
Looking like Max will be a Padre. Hopefully the haul is good
Cromulent! Is that you, Lisa?
Three walk off losses in the last five games.
Rizzo: I've got good news and bad news.
Davey: What's the good news?
Rizzo: Brad Hand has been traded.
Davey: What's the bad news?
Rizzo: Tanner Rainey is off the I.L.
Honest to the Lord, if I had been Davey I would have least asked Max after Rainey loaded the bases in the 7th, "Dude, can you go out there, take eight warm-ups and get one out? ONE EFFING OUT???"
Could have gone out in a blaze of glory. Getting a win and a save on the same day. Should have happened.
Oh fork, we're dealing Trea too?
I've never heard of any of these prospects. Should I be impressed by this return? The usual chattering idiots are saying I should be impressed but they tend to never know what they're talking about and seem to be cheering on the Dodgers. Did we do good?
Rizzo got taken to the woodshed. Chose quantity over quality. Whatever, this team sucks anyway.
I think we did ok but not great.
Scherzer was always going to get back a 50FV, give or take, with a 35 or 40 going one way or the other. Ruiz is one of the best 50s, some lists have him as a 55, so if we got him for Scherzer straight up, it would have been a really solid result.
The other three for Turner feels light, though. A 55, a 40/45 and 35, and it really should have been a 55 and 2 40/45s.
So maybe it works out to about fair? Which is I guess kind of disappointing given the frenzy around Max. And it's a bummer to lose Trea for next year. My biggest hope we're able to retool this offseason so we start April with a decent chance of making the playoffs, at least as good as this year. The talent we got back is close to the majors, so it's not like it's obvious that we're punting on 2022.
Actually, what is bothering me about it is that we're not sending any money. LAD are in the highest bracket right now, so there's an arb opportunity for us to send them 10M and have it be worth 17M to them. And we're comfortably below the tax line. I cannot for the life of me figure out why we didn't send them 10 million dollars to buy 15 million worth of prospects.
Let's see if we can get anything for Hudson, Gomes or Harrison tomorrow.
Man. The Dodgers. This is rough.
These prospects. Ruiz seems great, but for Trea for a year and a half…I mean, hes the 2nd best ss in the NL, right? I agree that it feels light. Tell us it’s not light, Harper.
I think this feels about it right actually. I don’t think it’s light at all. A half-season rental pitcher, even one of Max’s talent, is going to be limited on what it gets back. And Turner is 1.5 seasons and he’s going to cost ALOT. Next year alot through arbitration, and then A TON when they try to lock him up. IF they can lock him up. Beyond that the return was 2 guys who will immediately be on the Major league roster. One is a #3 pitcher on almost any team in baseball (except the dodgers because they have the luxury of excess) and cheap for a long time. The other is a bat first every day catcher who would already be starting everyday but is blocked by an all-star talent that is very young. Plus 2 other prospects who are not bad and pretty close to ML ready.
The Nats traded half a season of an ace, for 6 years of mid-rotation and a 18 months of all-star level play at a premium position for 6 years of average/above average play at another premium position. Plus to 2 prospects. Plus shaved payroll to hopefully lock up Soto.
I think the Nats did fine with this trade. Especially when you take it into context with other moves.
Brad Hand for Riley. Guess what? Catcher is likely to be an above average position for the Nats for the next 6 years and pretty cheap.
Hudson and Schwarber for lower level prospects. This helps give the Nats some depth in the prospect pool. They might be useful in a year or 2 OR they make dealing from your prospects a possibility again.
See what they get for Yan Gomes. Bet it’s another higher level Minor League. AAA maybe AA. But fairly close to the majors.
Overall, I’m pretty happy with the sell-off so far. You figure young guys man a bunch of positions next year. Develop the top of your talent pool. Then push the free agent market to be competitive again in 2023.
They really needed the prospects back. This farm was barren.
Post a Comment