The Nats made short work of former Nat Ross Detwiler - a guy who literally hasn't been good since leaving the Nats in 2015 and started this six game run with a bang, boom, and kapowie. How's the rest of the series look?
Rogers vs Espino - Rogers was the Marlins All-Star but he stumbled into the All-Star break with a series of mostly unimpressive and short starts. His control and Ks seem ok, same with the homers, so it's probably not a spin thing instead he's clumping together those hits and that's hurting him. Still that stretch included Toronto and the Dodgers - the 2nd and 3rd highest scoring teams in baseball, so that's probably more it than anything. I'd expect a tough match-up if the long layoff (last pitched in the ASG, last started on the 10th) doesn't bother him. I noted that Espino had given the Nats what they asked for (get into the 4th with the Nats in the game) every start... then he promptly couldn't get out of the third last time out. Espino isn't here to win the game. He's here to get the Nats to the 5th with the Nats within 3. It's not a big ask and the Marlins aren't a good hitting team to begin with. With Cooper and Chisholm out they border on terrible (which is what they were last night with Marte also out - he should be back tonight).
Alcantara vs Fedde - You know I have picked on Fedde recently because after the tack ban he's been bad but all in all his spin rate hasn't dipped too much. It's been all over the place really with no real connection to results. Those results have been universally bad. Last time out he was crazy wild, two times ago he got hit around bad, three times ago (before the missed start) he gave up some bombs. He looks like Fedde looks - a AAAA starter, but the Marlins are the type of team that sets you right and it's about time for Fedde to go 7IP with 3 hits and 7 Ks and make everyone think he can be good again. Alcantara IS a tack causality. His spin rate has nose-dived and the stats have followed down - fewer Ks more walks, more hittable. He's not a bad pitcher but he's probably closer to a 3/4 than the 2/3 he was showing at the start of the year, at least until he learns to pitch sans tack.
Both these games are winnable but the pitching match-ups favor the Marlins. It's the fact that the Marlins can't generate offense that makes it possible for the Nats to take both. Honestly I feel better about today's game - let 4-5 relievers go all out for 1-2 innings and shut these guys down, while the Nats take advantage of a possibly rusty Rogers. Fedde... I just don't think he's right and if he can't shut down the Marlins that probably tells us for sure he isn't. He's a borderline rotation guy anyway. That type that isn't 100% is going to be just not usable.
6 comments:
Fedde is such an interesting case. To my eye, his stuff should play comfortably in the majors. Maybe not as a 3, but surely a perfectly competent 4/5 that you're thrilled to have on your roster. And I've been interpreting the fact that he hasn't been able to deliver those results as proof that I don't know how to scout pitchers.
His control sometimes seems to desert him. I would be interested to see if his performance is more elastically affected by control issues than the average pitcher.
Fedde is typical of a young 4/5 starter (i.e. not a starter at the tail end of their career like a Lester) in that he lacks consistency in his, for lack of a better term, execution. I'm not a scout so I can't tell you exactly what's up, but it seems like Fedde doesn't have consistent mechanics because some nights his fastball and breaking balls are damn near unhittable, and other nights he's hanging everything or throwing flat meatballs. To me, that indicates something wonky in his "feel" for the ball/mound/arm slot/whatever. And I think that's why Rizzo hasn't given up on him, if the coaching staff can pinpoint what it is that distinguishes the clunker nights from the ace-level nights, then he could become a really valuable asset. But nobody's figured out exactly what's wrong just yet (and it really could just be all between the ears)
As for the Marlins series, the Nats put up 18 last night, meaning they will lose the next two games 1-0 or 2-0. That's the Washington way
CP - Fedde is 28! That's not young anymore!
I went to Fedde’s last start. Obviously not a good result. But it seems like some of it was bad bounces? If Fedde gets the DP on Tatis (I think it was a close play at 1st), or Rivera throws out Tatis at 2nd (entirely possible as I think it was a semi-pitchout), or Machado gets out on his slow roller, then Fedde gets out of the inning with 0 runs. Even after Tatis scored, Fedde also induced a slow roller from Pham but it didn’t result in an out. I feel like maybe his outing doesn’t end up as bad if a few breaks had gone his way.
"I think if we turn into definite sellers, everything will be on the table," Rizzo tells beat reporters.
I legitimately do not like the thought that Rizzo doesn't know if the Nats are a buyer or a seller right now. If they intend to sell, they should be fielding offers and making trades now before the market starts shrinking. The team getting some wins against bottom-feeders (Marlins, Orioles) should not be enough to move him out of a sell position if that's where he's going. On the other hand, if the Nats are going to be buyers, then every possible win is meaningful and therefore the team should be strengthening itself right away to give them the best chance to win those games.
Of course, it's also entirely possible that Rizzo is blowing smoke for the sake of negotiating gamesmanship--that "I don't know if we're going to sell" is code for "If you want to pry Turner away from us, you're going to have to convince me, so start your bids high." Or "I don't know if we're going to buy" is code for "Yeah, I know we're the perfect fit for Donaldson, but you're going to have to lowball your prospect expectations if you expect us to eat that contract." In which case never mind.
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