If you want to take the whole "why do the Nats have to rebuild" posts and create a narrative it would probably go something like this :
As the Nats got better they were placed in a harder draft position (reader mw points out that this included $$$ changes too - something I didn't mention) and they didn't respond well to that. They failed to get both the impact player and depth for several seasons. However, trade wise the Nats were a very young and, in spots, deep team. They didn't need to trade out a lot of players for ready talent, and in fact could occasionally use what excesses they did have to get some new young players. They also did fairly well in the international market during this time. The minors held together.
At this point the Nats were at the end of the first window (2012-2015/6) and reacted with a greater sense of urgency going forward. Now contender-type trades really were made and a lot of talent went out. In choosing who to deal and who to keep the Nats made some wrong choices that left them with probably less young talent then they could have had. Both the international free agent pool and the draft got better but didn't produce any exciting super young All-star talent that would rise to the top quickly. The Nats success for the time frame became more and more dependent on what happened in the majors with free agency.
The Nats had always had pretty good luck and skill picking out free agents, and the team stayed in contention for several more years but finally that well also dried up, with recent long term signees getting hurt or bad. The reality was if the Nats pushed forward they might sneak by in 2021 but it looked like a .500ish team for the next couple years with big questions on how money could be spent to make it better because the talent coming up for FA would be expensive and hard to replace. They had some things brewing in the minors but not enough to feel like they'd have the core for something greater unless everything worked out and it wasn't looking like that'd be the case.
The other option to holding on would be to sell now and try to help create that core with the returns. It probably would take a couple seasons but if the Nats aimed for older prospects it's possible these guys and the current talent on hand (assuming the more recent drafts and int'l signings were done well) could all come together by 2023? 2024? Whatever it was would be soon enough to sell Soto on staying with the team. With less security they'd be an attractive stop for FAs for the next couple years the Nats chose to sell
Could the Nats have competedin 2021? In the NL East possibly. The fact the Nats are now last in the division isn't a fluke. Their wasn't a ton of talent here behind what was traded. Overall they still were probably the least talented team. They were behind already as well. Most likely they'd fight, get close, but fall short. If they did manage to pull it out - they'd almost certainly be run out of the playoffs unless they traded for a Berrios and he had a magical run. But almost certainly isn't certainly. Crazy things happen.
The Nats are in free fall now. The fans don't like it but also are accepting of it. I'm a little less ok with it. This isn't a historically bad roster, but it's playing like one. To me that's a bad sign, but it hasn't been long enough to really judge. OH the kids!
Weekly Kid Update
Some decent hitting this week - if you like singles. There's a distinct lack of power here. Some guys, like Luis Garcia might develop it. That's less likely with a guy like Stevenson. The Nats organizationl is pretty lacking in power, especially in the upper levels. Here's hoping Keibert Ruiz 2021 power surge is real. Next week I guess Thomas will be in here
Past 7 days
- Kieboom : .273 / .304 / .318
- Luis Garcia : .263 / .333 /.316
- Riley Adams : .273 / .385/ .273
also
- Andrew Stevenson : .250 / .250 / .250
- Tres Barrera : .250 / .400 / .250
Gray looked like we expect - good control, either FB outs or HRs. You take this type of outing but you can feel as the league gets a read on the guy that maybe they work out a couple more walks/hits, those HRs aren't solo shots anymore and he's struggling. He'll have to improve but the #3 type is there. Mason Thompson looked ok again - fewer Ks though. Klobosits is just too hittable. I don't see him in the future.
- Gray : 6 IP, 5H, 0BB, 6K, 4.50 ERA
- Thompson : 3.0 IP, 3H, 1BB, 1K, 3.00 ERA
- Klobosits : 3IP, 4H, 1BB, 2K, 6.00 ERA
11 comments:
Are the Nats the only big league team without a 20-homer man on their active roster?
The team has neglected the power component in their draft selections for a number of years. This year the chickens have come home to roost. After Bryce and Rendon departed, that left Soto as the last man standing.
Maybe there's some power-hitting gold in the minors that I've overlooked (although the Brady House pick suggests otherwise).
Your next assignment, Harper--should you choose to accept it--is to take a jeweler's loupe and see if you can find any genuine power potential in the Nats' farm system.
@SM After some quick digging turns out we are in the elite company of the Tigers and (shockingly) the Rockies! Though with Soto and Bell knocking on the door at 19 a piece, we will hopefully be leaving the club this week.
I think if Bell doesn't get COVID and starts the season normally he has at least that many by now, possibly way more (especially considering the lineup now vs before the deadline). Same for Soto, I think if he's not whatever combination of sick/hurt he's been basically the whole season he has more too.
Power seems like a fickle thing when you're talking about men so young they may not even be done growing yet. A kid who's already big and strong of course isn't going to get weaker but it's kind of hard to predict how a younger guy will grow. Garcia is young enough that maybe he still fills out (though he doesn't look it at the moment).
SM - no the minors are pretty devoid of power outside of some rookie/ low A types that really can't be counted on. Basically their best power bat is Luis Garcia who isn't projected to hit that many. Keibert, Adams, and Donovan Casey all immediately become in the Top 5 Nats power prospects (and the latter two aren't really good ones)
also what el chupo says is true - a lot of this is projection. Guys like Rendon, Bryce and Soto showed it but then again they are Rendon, Bryce and Soto. Most SLUGGERS show in the minors but other guys who can hit 25+ may develop later. Semien is a good example, or Desmond. Garica could end up like that - hitting 15-20 for a 5+ years here and then having a few years of 25+
I agree with everyone!
Some teams--could it be (ahem) scouting?--though, are better at recognizing the ability to hit, and hit with power, than others. Alas, the Nat' rebuilding pitching staff will learn that lesson in the seasons to come each time they face the Mets.
Are the Nats on lace to get a top 5 pick?
*pace
Adding to the bad news, Joe Ross has a partially torn UCL and may well be headed for a second Tommy John. Given that he's pitched like a solid 3-4 all year he was looking like a useful piece for next year (or an equally useful trade chip).
GCX - yes. Currently sixth but pacing past KC
A top 5 pick would be a great consolation for this disappointing season.
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