I set a crazy goal for fun before the Strasburg injury - Orioles sweep - trade-off effectively ended the season. It was "don't lose another series". If they did that at that point, only split or won, they'd end up with 87 wins and 87 wins is a pretty good bet to win the East.* BUT if they lost a series they'd have to make up that win elsewhere - for example moving from the 2-1 hopeful win to a 3-0 sweep in a normal 3 game set. I was curious how is that going?
Ok, I KNOW it's going bad but how bad? Turns out the Nats have won only two series. One was one with the Cubs at end of July. They also swept a two game set against Toronto. So that was actually outperforming hopes (I only said "don't lose" - so a split was the goal). But everything else? Well take a look :
Swept 0-3 by BAL : Need to Make-Up 2 games since 2-1 was the goal
Tied PHI : On Target
Beat CHC : On Target
Swept 0-4 by PHI : Make-Up 2 more.. so Make-Up 4
Lost ATL : Make-Up 5
Swept 0-3 by NYM : Make-Up 7
Swept 0-3 by ATL : Make-Up 9
Swept Tor 2-0 : Make-Up 8 (gaining back ground!!!)
Lost MIL : Make-Up 9 (lost it)
Lost MIA : Make-Up 10
Lose NYM : Make-Up 11
Now since they already lost the first PHI game they can't make anything up this series. They can only win both to match hope. After that there are 9 series left. 7 are normal three game sets. Let's say they sweep them all that'll "make-up" 7 of the needed games. But we still need four wins. Ok there's a 5 game set with the Mets. Hope was 3-2. Instead they go 5-0. That's 2 more wins made-up. Two to go. Cincy 4 gamer. 2-2 split hoped for. Go 4-0. DONE!
The Nats can still hit their hoped for goal of 87 wins. All they have to do is win every game going forward.
Go 1-0 today, everyday.
*Even now with ATL playing excellent and PHI ok, 87 still might not be reached. ATL has to go 17-15 to do that. PHI even with a weak schedule probably tops out MAX expectation at 88. Playing decently 84 is more likely.
15 comments:
So, you're saying there's a chance!
We got 'em right where we want 'em.
To be fair I think anything 84+ might win the NL East so the Nats can go 29-3 and still might have a shot. Some cushion to work with.
Robles sent down...I just don't get it. What is he going to get in AAA that he isn't going to get in the majors? He needs help with his swing, is Kevin Long not the best person in the org for the job...? If the Nats were in win now mode, sure send him down. But these games are mostly useless, so let him sort it out in the bigs
I like that they sent him down to AAA. Take the pressure off until he finds his swing and regains his confidence. Kevin Long's approach might not be the best for a hitter like Robles. I have no idea if this applies to Robles, but if I was in his shoes I'd be feeling like I'm letting down the team almost every day and that would wear on my ability to produce. The players still want to win.
First two comments on this post are golden.
Tough to be optimistic about the future after Robles gets sent down, Corbin blows up again and our best move is to bring up Suero with his atrocious numbers in AAA.
I'm 90% sure Robles needs contacts or Lasik. Would explain the significant dropoff from 2019. Kieboom got Lasik last offseason and now looks not-totally-lost. Lasik rejuvenated Wilson Ramos' hitting as well.
I agree about Robles to AAA being a good idea. Naturally, he would feel like he’s letting the team down. [sarcasm incoming] But I blame management for that. Wasn’t it communicated to the players that the goal is not to win games anymore? That this is about playing time and evaluating talent? If anyone feels pressure in this org right now it’s Rizzo to right the ship in the timeline he sets. The players shouldn’t feel any pressure - if that do, then maybe AAA is the best place for them.
On many lists of "Nats needs this off-season" it says that we need an outfielder, presumably to replace Schwarber. Right now, the team is allocating MLB at-bats to see if any of the multiple in-house candidates for LF can handle it...and if Robles can't improve, handle CF, as well. Dollars that don't need to be allocated to the outfield this winter can be spent elsewhere. While the experimenting goes on at the MLB level, Robles can play everyday in Rochester and make his own case. Kevin Long's input is irrelevant: if he was going to solve the Robles problem, it would be fixed by now.
In the same vein, Josh Bell playing left field last night was much more than getting him and Zim into the game at the same time. A Josh Bell who can play 1st and LF, as well as DH...opens up multiple possibilities. For one, I wouldn't be surprised if Riley Adams is being taught 1st base and LF...so that we could have a back-up catcher who could play every night in the field or as DH. The season is shot anyway and they have lots of new talent to evaluate--winning games is not--nor should be--a priority. Giving everyone a good look is.
@Dan agreed!
Can I add to our off-season wish list? I’d like an investment in research and player development staff throughout the minor league affiliates. Read an article in the Post that says the Rays (26th ranked payroll at $70M) have three times as many R&D staff as the Nats (12th ranked payroll at $147M). The Rays, pennant winners and the best record this year, are notorious for “doing more with less.” My question is: why can’t we do more with… more?
Link to article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/09/01/victor-robles-demoted-minor-leagues/
Yup. Mike "the Scout's GM" Rizzo has really invested wholeheartedly in analytics, which has it's place to be sure (why do you think I read this blog?). But there's something to be said about the dearth of talent coming through international signings and the draft. And I think that boils down to the eye test a lot. You can't compare a junior flamethrower at Vandy with a 3.50 ERA and say they are objectively worse than the LLWS kid from South Dakota throwing multiple no hitters. But that's what a model will tell you. There's no way to create an xERA that adjusts for all the various summer league's talent levels. And that's where scouts and player development personnel come in. Why the Nats don't have more makes no sense.
Wow…. Brad Hand cut by Blue Jays:
www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32121860/toronto-blue-jays-cut-lhp-brad-hand-1-month-acquiring-him%3fplatform=amp
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