Let's go over the final lines for the young bats and note how optimistic / pessimistic I am about these guys
GARCIA - .242 / .275 / .411 - The bad news is in neither his brief early stint nor his later one did he look major league ready. The good news is that he didn't look incredibly overmatched either. He also ended with a .298 / .313 / .468 run in his last 11 games. He looked like a 21 year old with promise which is what he is. His fielding needs work which is kind of worrisome but hey, there's always 3B if he doesn't improve. You'd like him to take that next step to usable major leaguer sooner rather than later, but the honest truth is he has two more years before you stop giving him chances given his age and contract status. He's gotta play everyday to start next year. STILL OPTIMISTIC
RUIZ - .284 / .348 / .395 - Another slow start strong finish (last 10 hit .351 / .415 / .541) early returns on this part of the trade are very positive. Ruiz looks kind of funny swinging so there's a question of whether the league can adjust to him but you can't look at this line and think he won't start for the Nationals next year. It may be a platoon situation, or he may be the starter, but he will be playing. Another positive here is only 4 Ks in 80+ PAs - a lot of contact in a league now where that's more and more a rarity. Arguably an early ROY candidate. VERY OPTIMISTIC
KIEBOOM - .207 / .301 / .318 - I'm sure others have fallen further faster but I'm pressed to think of one. Kieboom looks lost at the plate and ended his time in free fall (.119 / .224 / .149 in his last 18). He's yet to hit in the majors for anything more than a cup of coffee. Worse than that he looks lost in the field, too. It's a joke now if he even understands the game. I can't see him playing to start the year. The Nats might feel differently but to me he needs to straighten his head in AAA. Again. Worst case scenario for this guy. VERY PESSIMISTIC
ADAMS - .268 / .422 / .465 - The guy was fun. While the Nats were waiting for Ruiz to get all the time he needed in AAA, Adams split time at catcher and crushed it - hitting over .300 with doubles power. Then Ruiz came up and Adams barely played. So what do you do with the guy? You can always use more catchers, and having two young under control catchers? That's a dream. But he's 26 halfway through next year and you are probably never going to be able to sell higher on him. Why? He's a strikeout machine (closing on 40% this year in the majors) and guys like that don't usually keep producing. I think I'd trade and if he develops so be it. Ruiz is your catcher. NEUTRAL FOR HIM AS A PLAYER. OPTIMISTIC NATS CAN TURN HIM INTO A GOOD RELIEF PITCHER OR SOMETHING VIA TRADE
THOMAS - .270 / .364 / .489 - A very pleasant surprise for the Nats. A 4th OF type who the Cardinals didn't need, he struck out a lot and didn't quite do anything good enough to compensate for that and his middling patience. But for the Nats it came together. In about a third of a season of at bats the Ks went down, he hit for power, AND he was much more patient than he had been. Is this a real change in batting? A change of scenery or tutoring making the difference? If so Thomas is a starter - although he's not really a CF, especially with Soto in RF*. He's also probably not good enough that you want him in the other corner if he regresses a little. There's a decent bet that he sees a fair amount of time given the other issues the Nats have to deal with. Given that we'll have time to see what he is and adjust accordingly for the years beyond 2022. I think at worst he's a league average hitting 4th OF and that's fine. OPTIMISTIC
STEVENSON - .229 / .294 / .339 - this probably should be the last call for Stevenson. In all his longer major league stints he's struggled terribly and given he'll turn 28 around Memorial Day next year he's too old to expect anything more than what we've seen, which is offense well below the needed production to play in the majors. However Stevenson can field so if they want to do something with Robles - like get him reset in AAA, or they don't like his look coming back from injury, or they don't like him and don't want to deal him- there are valid reasons to keep the super cheap player who can play late inning D and pinch run. Carry 5 OFs and he's a 5. But you don't usually carry 5 OF anymore, and usually decent OFs are available in FA (see Schwaber, Kyle). So I don't like these chances. It'll all depend on Robles, if he's in the majors I don't think Andrew is. I don't think they jettison him given their depth issues but Rochester is likely where he'll be. PESSIMISTIC
*Yes I'm not buying one year of questionable defensive improvement especially when it started as "he's oddly the best OF in baseball now?" and regressed all season long back to "no he's not - he's passable"
4 comments:
Ruiz and Garcia are the ones who seem like definite starters going forward. Their development is what I'm most interested in next year. Lane Thomas is a major leaguer too, but I don't think he's a center fielder on a championship team. After so many years of Taylor and Robles, the defensive drop off is significant. Kieboom is a bummer though, he showed brief promise and just fell off completely. Have to assume they bring in another infielder this offseason!
Yep, seems about right to me.
* Ruiz and Barrera look like the 2022 catchers.
* If Adams sticks with the Nats, it probably won't be as a catcher--if he can keep hitting for average and power despite the Ks then he likely has a future at 1B/LF/DH. I think if we get the universal DH then he'll be more likely to stick around.
* Thomas has earned a starting spot in the OF. Like Harper, I'd prefer to not have that be in CF, except that he's going to have to be a legit >110-120-ish wRC+ batter to stick in LF. In the perfect universe, he really can hit like that and Robles gets his head on straight in AAA and reclaims CF and everybody's happy for the next three years with the Nats outfield. I don't think we're getting the perfect universe. But Thomas looks like he has a good chance to be genuinely useful.
* Garcia at least ought to get a shot at 2B or 3B to start next year, depending on what else we add.
* If we also have room in the IF to let Kieboom take a spot, then Rizzo was lying about a reboot and we're playing for 2022. He's moving very firmly towards the "bust" category.
* Alcides Escobar is a useful utility infielder who played quite adequately last year; what I don't like is that he's exactly the kind of scrappy guy that Baseball Men(tm) love to overvalue. If we sign, say, Kris Bryant or Marcus Seimen and play Escobar between that guy and Garcia and bat Escobar somewhere around 7th, then that's fine. If Plan A is to give him 600 PAs batting second, then there's a problem.
* I'm not looking forward to the review of the arms at all.
Athletic reported the other week that Nats don't see Garcia as a 3B because of his arm, which I'm not sure adds up. Seems like if he came up as a SS he'd have enough arm to make it at third.
Playing wait and see on their pitching sort of makes sense for next season, see who can come back from this pu-pu platter of a season and then rearrange those who can't, so the place to improve this offseason seems like 3B, SS (not happening because Escobar's CHEEP) and LF.
Maybe San Diego wants to trade a young up and coming SS for Thomas to go to the Rays?
At the end of the day, Rizzo off-loaded free agents on their way out for a couple of badly needed players with value. Two who are likely to stick as position players. Ruiz is absolutely key because good-hitting catchers don't come cheap. It was painful to see Trea go; but with the crisis pitching situation its not possible to keep him.
Even with its defensive holes, the position players we have now can hit. It won't be hard to upgrade with a few FA's.
Adding an ace and a middle of the road pitcher gives the Nats a small chance to be competitive next year. Depends on whether SS, Corbin and Ross are healthy.
Rizzo's blind spot has always been the bull pen. He said it himself. "Relievers are failed starters..." (If I'm a primo reliever looking for my next team, that comment doesn't sit well with me). The pen is Rizzo's last building block --- but it will be hard to be worse than it was this year...
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