Off-Season Position Discussion : Catcher

The beat goes on. The season is weeks over, nearly every team is done playing and the Nats are looking toward 2022 and what that means exactly we don't know yet.  For the first time since... the off-season of 2010 I guess, the Nats aren't gearing up for a potential playoff run. We can argue about 2010 even as the Nats went into that off-season with dreams of Cliff Lee and other FA signings (they ended up with pretty much just Werth) but I'd consider that set-up for 2012 and beyond, not a real belief they could compete in 2011. Anyway, we don't know for sure what the Nats are planning for in 2022.  A quick rebuild to compete seems very unlikely given the resources at hand. A continued tear-down also doesn't seem in the cards considering the trades made for upper minors talent and the elephant in the room of Prime Soto being wasted. That leaves a modest rebuild, where they gather a few pieces in this off-season to start the process with the eyes on finishing it next off-season and being back competing in 2023. 

But that's just a guess.

Keep that in mind as we discuss these things because that's the place my presumed Nats plans are coming from. If the Nats swerve in another direction these could be completely wrong. 

As far as catcher goes, this year Yan Gomes was elevated to "pretty much #1" and he was starting like 2 out of every three games before getting injured and then traded. He was doing pretty well, too showing that the terrible 2016 season was the fluke and while he can be up and down, the downs aren't unplayable and the ups are a relative steal. Avila was the primary back-up and was fine for a back-up. He was also down when Gomes got hurt, leaving catching duties to Tres Barrera who was also fine (a lot of walks mostly) and Rene Rivera (not good). But no one in the organization is high on Barrera anymore as a starter and the Nats traded for three catchers. First in play was the older, less prospecty Riley Adams, and after getting a bit more seasoning the Nats saw young, real prospect Keibert Ruiz. Riley would be surprisingly good. Ruiz decent, especially late. 

You might look at this and say "Hey this all sounds surprisingly good" It was! Without looking too much into defense one could argue the Nats had maybe the 2nd best catching situation in the majors behind Tampa. Granted that's almost certainly an overreach (Sal Perez in KC and Posey in SF come to mind even if Sal's D is gone and Posey can only play 60% of a season) but Top 5? Maybe. Top 10? Almost certainly. That's pretty good for 2/3rds a year of Yan Gomes and whatever.

Presumed Plan : Keibert Ruiz starts and Tres Barrera backs-up. Riley Adams either sits in AAA, shifts positions, or is traded

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : Keibert as a starter is a no brainer. Ruiz worked his way through the minors quickly but not overly so. He had a minor "stumble" in AA in 2019 where he seemed to lose his power stroke, which caused him to drop back in the prospect rankings but he was also 20 at the time. As a 22 year old in AAA this year he bounced back and everything seemed to click. He was slashing .311 / .381 / .631 in Oklahoma City and was arguably the key piece in the Scherzer/Turner deal to LA.* The move from the more offensively minded used to be PCL to the used to be ECL didn't change anything and after getting all the constant ABs the Nats felt he needed, Ruiz debuted in the majors. It wasn't smooth sailing at first but a late rally had him finishing the season at .284 / .348 / .395. 

Ruiz is still a work in progress and while he'll likely be on ROY short lists, no one would be surprised if next year is a struggle. He has all the tools to be good but he can get a little lazy, particularly on defense. He's seen as the long term (re: through 2026) solution at catcher and that means only a real crash and burn next year would derail those plans. 

Shorter : You traded for this guy to be your catcher. You are playing him when he's ready to be in the majors and he's ready to be in the majors. 

Tres Barrera is a long term Nats prospect who is sort of a "catcher's catcher". He plays constantly - college, summer, fall, foreign - and is seen as a guy who studies his craft and looks to learn and improve constantly. A leader type with plus defense who presents the type of guy you'd like Ruiz to emulate... if you are to believe the failed PED test was an accident which maybe?** I mean he is suing MLB which is a funny tack to take if you were straight up juicing. What's holding Barrera back from being more is his hitting, which given his age (27) and minor league history - won't ever be great, or even good. But as shown this year he might be able to hold his own and for a back-up C that you like for every other reason that's good enough. 

Adams is a far more interesting hitting prospect than Barrera, as Nats fans caught a glimpse of in his month of playing, but he's a big guy whose fielding is a question. You might consider him as a bat-first backup of a defense first catcher but that's not what Ruiz is, so it's hard to see him ending up as his back-up instead of Barrera. You could also try shifting him over to another position, but as he's still capable, if not good, behind the plate, it seems like a waste to do that. So really your choices are stick him in AAA try to make him better (his K rate is very high and suggests a very low .200 BA ceiling in the majors) as a potential injury/failure replacement for Ruiz or as better trade bait, or just trade him now.  He was about as good as one could hope for in his month with the Nats, flashing a power/patience combo that he's rarely shown. He could very well be at his highest value now.

My take : This seems right. Ruiz IS the future at catcher, or at least the Nats hope so. All signs have been positive up until now. The only reason the Nats could get him is the Dodgers already have a very good young catcher in the majors (26yo Will Smith) and a very good prospect in the minors (barely 20yo Diego Cartaya who will be in the Top 50 prospects across the board before 2022). He makes FANTASTIC contact striking out only 183 times in almost 1900 minor league plate appearances, giving the Nats what could be a very special contact-heavy team with him, Soto, and Luis Garcia (if Garcia improves enough to stick). I'm not sure if the BA will be high enough or the power consistent enough to be a multi-year All-Star type but I'd be surprised if he's not at least average.  This goes as well for his defense which probably will never be great but seems fine relying more on talent than max effort. 

Backing up with Barrera instead of Adams is not directly utilizing a strength but it also is hitting probably the average back-up catcher offense in baseball. It's a tough position to fill. Everyone seems to like his defense. Everyone seems to like his attitude. He brings the "veteran catcher" to the team without having to go out and grab... let's say an Austin Romine... who probably wouldn't be any better. As long as Barrera isn't useless at the plate it's ok. It's only if Ruiz goes down, and really for like a couple years because 2022 doesn't matter much, where back-up Barrera looks like a mistake. 

If you don't stick Adams behind Ruiz, then how to best utilize this "two young catcher advantage"? Frankly I prefer trading him. I don't think his stock will ever be higher. There are just so many Ks and Adams isn't particularly young (he'll be 26 in June) meaning I don't see much improvement there. His cup of coffee with TOR was dreadful, his AAA time was here and there. If you can get a young relief arm of any interest - the Nats need as many of those as they can get. But BUT the Nats C situation in the minors beyond Adams isn't that great. Drew Millas - another trade get - is supposed to be sparkling behind the plate, but bat is a big question. Israel Pineda - a int'l signee - is super young, but also flailing and could easily top out in AA. If Ruiz doesn't pan out do you really want to let a potential starter go? 

In the end though I think Adams likelihood to end up a good major league starter is slim enough that dealing him makes more sense.  Get something with a little more major league certainty back and let another team see if they can get lucky.  

*I'd call Grey 1a. The consensus at the trade time seemed to be Ruiz could very well be a star, while Gray is likely just a solid contributor. 

** I'm not the type to be soft on people who fail PED tests but the story on Barrera and his particular group is that they are failing for EXTREMELY small amounts of a steroid not used regularly in a couple generations of athletes. Very questionable that it's actually a performance-enhancing amount rather than some relic number set years ago that doesn't stand up to scrutiny for the spirit of what they are trying to do.