2nd base for the Nats in 2021 was the temporary fix of Josh Harrison with the hopes that eventually Luis Garcia would graduate to the role. Harrison played fine and hit well which made him a trade target and eventually saw him shipped to the A's. Garcia was yo-yo'd up and down as the first injury replacement (or maybe initially the second but Kieboom was so bad) and never quite got the hang of the majors, sitting around a .200 average. After the trade deadline he was up for good and he flirted a couple time with looking like he was settling in only to slump again. However the last half of September provided some hope as Garcia hit .290+ in arguably his longest stretch of decent hitting of his career.
Jordy Mercer played 2B as well but he was a veteran stop-gap and there isn't much reason to talk about him. Well at least right now
Presumed Plan : Garcia first up with some sort of veteran stop gap back-up.
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : You can't fill every position with a FA, and the Nats only have so many (or really so few) prospects. Garcia is one of them, he hit in AAA last year, so he starts, much like Ruiz at catcher. While he never settled, he also never looked overwhelmed and given he'll be an old 21 next year that's perfectly fine. He should get all next year to try to make it work, and probably a year or two more after that depending. This not only is about hitting. Garcia's fielding wasn't all that great and if he can't play 2B and is able to hit but needs to be shifted to 3B that's something useful to know sooner rather than later.
Since next year is a lost year it really shouldn't matter who they bring back to fill that role. For example if they do go out and sign a SS then Alcides Escobar can probably fill that role while also backing up SS. I'd expect this person to start less than 20 games next year unless something goes terribly wrong with Garcia. That can happen (see, Kieboom, Carter) but most likely if he's not good that means he bottomed out at below average and you just let him play through it.
My take : Yes. Do this. Garcia may not be ready, but he's hit .254 over 110 major league games now so I don't see what sending him back down to the minors would help. He doesn't strike out much, especially in this day and age. His K rate was 17%, so he's not learning that. He hit for power in AAA in a way he didn't in the majors (or any time else in his career), so he's not working on that. Walks? Yeah he could definitely use some work there but are you going to really send him down for patience and fielding practice? Maybe if you were a manipulative GM and the clock hadn't started but Rizzo isn't that and it has.
So he plays and he plays as often as possible. 4 out of every 5 days or so would work. Expectations for next year should be pretty low. Maybe a .260 average and 15 homers (and like 30 walks - seriously he does need to work on that)? And if he's there, great! That's real close to league average. You bump it up in 2023 to something like .275 and 20 and 40 walks and you have a useful major leaguer. If he's not there, that's fine too. You mark 2023 as needing to see some improvement. Again he's 21/22 next year. Precious few players are Soto or Bryce types who can give you something even GOOD at that age.
The only thing that derails this plan is if it's Memorial Day and he's hitting like .150 or .190 with 1 homer or hitting .210 with 3 homers but striking out a third of the time. You know, problems. He's gotta give you SOMETHING and you can't be worried about him getting messed up in the majors. That's all. There's the line.
As for the back-up. Doesn't matter much. If they don't sign a SS, Alcides gets penciled in there and you sign a bargain basement type for a million and forget about it. That's the "right now" part in the Mercer evaluation above. You need someone to stick in there if Garcia needs a day off. Mercer was fine in that role this year. Personally I see more value in someone that can teach Garcia some defense. Taking a quick glance Jason Kipnis, who spent all of 2021 in the minors for ATL even though he arguably could have been someones spot starter, isn't a bad choice. Seems perfect in the Nats "you used to be good, come here and have one more good year for us" strategy. But you get the point
With Kieboom entering on-field bust territory, Garcia is the future of the Nats IF along with Brady House who could be here in 2023 or 2025 - we don't know. What we do know is Garcia is here now and we should see all the Garcia we can possibly take next season.
6 comments:
Yep. 2B is pretty simple. C was simple. 1B was simple. Unless Harper chickens out and does Soto in RF next these are going to start to get a lot more interesting. I'm particularly interested in seeing the "out of the box idea" segments come back when we start talking about these unsettled positions.
Anon, the BP it could also be simple if "Burn it with fire" is an option...
Anon - next is Soto then "likely nominal #2 starter" and finally "someother starter" - then we wrap things up
Yep. Admittedly, Harper's been starting with the easier decisions (outside of right field, about which arguably only Angels CF is an easier check the box and move on decision in all of baseball), but the plan here is straightforward. We have a guy, he's young and may be good, and now is the time to find out if (a) he is in fact good, (b) his bat will play but his glove needs to be somewhere else, (c) he's not good yet but he's making steps and he's young so try again next year, or (d) cut bait.
SS-3B are the positions that are going to get interesting, and what Rizzo chooses to do about them is going to determine just how serious he is about rebuilding.
(LF/CF is kind of interesting because Thomas definitely earned a chance to either play himself out of the lineup or prove he can be a 110-120 wRC+ guy (or better), but he's not going to make anybody forget Michael Taylor in CF and the ideal outcome is that his bat sticks, Robles gets back to at least 2019 form, and Thomas moves to LF. But there's so many variants possible there--if they think Thomas can stick at CF then they can sign a Schwarber type to play LF or move Bell there if they sign a 1B instead.)
The thing that gets me is: it's entirely possible that the Nats can have an above-average lineup next year. Soto is great, Bell is good, the catchers are decent (especially for catchers), Thomas may be good, it's certainly possible to fill in a good LF, Garcia may be good, and even if they don't sign a FA SS if Escobar hits like he did last year that's actually perfectly fine--he was worth 1.7 fWAR with an exactly average 100 wRC+ for us over 349 PA. It's the pitching staff that terrifies me.
Hey! I'm not trying to be sneaky. I generally start with C and go around. (though for the last couple years I started with 1B for some reason and stuck C after 3B)
Probably not entirely germane, but isn't Garcia the kind of player you try to extend? He's young, so if he's league average, we miss his prime years. And, he needs to play in the majors, at this point, to build value, and how many other teams would just send him to the minors? He can probably use the money. His 2016 bonus was $1.3m and obviously league minimum now. Next year is a good one to pull forward some salary cap. And the downside risk is like one year of Corbin. Anyway, never going to happen, but seems to me like it could.
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