Nationals Baseball: Mets to the Max? Maximum Mets?

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Mets to the Max? Maximum Mets?

In the past few days the ground shifted in baseball in a way that happens in very few short FA periods.  Seager joined Gray and Semien in Texas. Ray landed in Seattle. Gausman was grabbed by the Blue Jays. The Marlins signed Asavail Garcia. Starling Marte signed with the Mets. Kirby Yates, Daniel Hudson, Hector Neris found new bullpens. Corey Kluber, Michael Wacha, Yimi Garcia, Adam Frazier, Mark Cahna, Eduardo Escobar, and Jacob Stallings all moved teams. And that's not including the half-dozen more were settled before that.

Still for Nats fans nothing was as monumental as Max Scherzer signing with the Mets. 3 years, 130 million. The largest ever annual value for a player. It's hard to top that. 

Fans can certainly be disappointed but we are decades away from the time players developed enough hatred for rivals to regularly avoid signing with them. The Mets offered the most money and maybe the longest contract* and a player took it. There's nothing "mercenary" about that despite what Barry might say, or at least no more mercenary than nearly every other player decision ever.

But that feeling speaks to the feeling Nats fans have for Scherzer. Anecdotally to this soulless automaton on the outside looking in while the rain rusts his joints, it felt to me that Max was the most beloved National. More beloved than flashy Bryce Harper, of course, who never quite gave the fans something to hold onto until that last HR Derby, then went out the door. More beloved than exuberant Juan Soto, who just hasn't been here long enough and now has the question of 'how long' hanging over him. More beloved than enigmatic Stephen Strasburg, who couldn't please most fans for years and is currently hurt. More beloved than milquetoast Ryan Zimmerman, who's always just been but was too far gone to be more than a piece during the window. Max's combination of big emotion and big moments and seemingly love of playing is catnip to fans. Pitching with a black eye? Screaming at the manager to let him keep pitching? Fans eat that up and Max gave them seven full years of servings.

So to see that Max, "our Max", go to a direct rival... that's a bit much. 

But you forget Max was just as much a mercenary coming to the Nats. The Tigers nutured him from a good pitcher into a Cy Young one then offerend him lifetime security with a long wealthy deal.  Max thought he could do better. He refused the deal and he bet on himself. Turned out to be a smart move as the following year he left for a bigger and longer deal, the biggest and longest deal he could get (sound familiar?). It was with the Nats. 


What will Max do for the Mets? Well he's getting older and while Zimm might think he's the "Tom Brady of baseball", Tom Brady can last forever primarily by avoiding hits and baseball and its everyday grind isn't like that.** That's especially true for a pitcher who is attached to a ticking time bomb called a pitching arm. After throwing for over 187+ innings and 32+ starts for 8 consecutive years 2019 and 2021 brought fewer starts and innings. Not a lot fewer but enough that you can see the end from here. We should assume in 2022 something similar, 27-30 starts, an ERA no higher than 3.00. Something to give the Mets the best 1-2 in baseball if deGrom is right. You base 2023 on 2022 and 2024 on 2023. That's what you do at his age.  If you make me guess I'm saying 80 starts in 3 years with an ERA under 3.50 and value for the deal if not exactly living up to it. I don't bet against Max.

The Mets signings as a whole are pretty good in the short term. Which is how they should be thinking because they are trying to get as far as possible while having possibly the best pitcher of our time (yes, deGrom is that good - look at his stupid 2021) and a couple of recent long term deals for guys like Lindor and McCann who should be good now but no guarantee of that down the line. Their time if ever is now. Marte fills the CF hole with someone who can hit AND play the position, and allows Nimmo to play corner OF which he's pretty good at. Eduardo Escobar will cover multiple positions with a pretty good switching hitting bat. Cahna give the Mets the patient bat they sorely lacked.  It'll be interesting to see what they do with the pretty decent parts they may have pushed out.  Dom Smith, 4th OF? Either the off-year McNeil or the cement hands JD Davis have to sit. They still need to deal with the pen but right now you put them as the top team in the East, at the very least until you see what the Braves do. Freeman is still suspiciously unsigned.


Tough day for Nats fans but get used to it. It'll be a tough year. Yesterday was emblematic of the Nats offseason - quiet. And not sneaky quiet. Uninterested. Nothing from the beats, or the usual insiders. If anything what they said made you think THEY think the Nats are doing nothing. They'll wait. Pick up a few 1-2 year contracts on the cheap to roll for prospects at the deadline. What matters in 2022 for the Nats is not wins, but development. Cheer on every K by Cavalli, every homer by House. Because that's what's going to determine if next offseason is filled with talk about signing Soto or trading him.


*which is crazy - I know Max is 37/38 next year but if you want to win NOW he's as good a bet as any pitcher to be good in 2022 so why not give him an extra year, or two, or three even.  I can see not matching the money but the years thing is crazy to me. 

** not saying baseball isn't tougher than football. I am saying if you can somehow mostly avoid hits in football there is little action and only 16 games so you could last a very long time. Of course the point of most of football is taking or giving hits so avoiding hits is pretty much impossible. 

9 comments:

ocw5000 said...

I get such strong Dan Snyder vibes from Steve Cohen, I can't help but think this is his version of Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Jeff George signings from 20 years ago

DezoPenguin said...

Not really annoyed about this, I mean, good for Max, make your tens of millions when you can. I don't like the Mets getting better, but, well, I have to expect that not everything they do is going to be a LOLMets moment and Max, Marte, Canha, and Escobar are all good signings.

What I don't like is the Nats continuing to sit on their thumbs. (Seriously, being listed as one of the suitors for Taylor is the first time I've heard their name in any context other than "Nationals resign some fringe guy who played for them last year" or "This is what a Soto extension might cost.") Every player who signs is one less player that might end up a National. To this moment, the Nationals' strategy for 2022 appears to be "run out the same guys from the last two months of 2021 and see if anything changes." And that's not a strategy that wins baseball games. It's not even a strategy that necessarily helps win games in 2023.

Obviously, Rizzo's surprised us in the past, and not every signing is foreshadowed by agents and media leakers (Gausman to the Jays and Ray to the Mariners, for example--and who expected the Rangers to outbid the world for Seager after already outbidding the world for Semien?). But it's an uncomfortable place to be in as a fan, is all I'm saying. The late 00s sucked, and I don't want to be back there.

Anonymous said...

The biggest way the last week has adjusted my priors is that FA looks to be a fair bit pricier than I expected.

I was in the camp saying we should try to compete in 2022. Max at $30M. One of the cheaper FA shortstops at $20M. And then fill in bullpen help, maybe a $10-15M SP3 or whatever. Get payroll back up to where it should be (190M+) and we're set up to compete in a weak division if a few breaks go our way.

But I'm seeing these deals happen, and I'm not thinking "Oh, man. The Nats should have outbid that."

$45M for Max? I mean, let's even assume he'd have taken $40M from us. That's still huge, and would crowd us out of getting a SS. Baez signed for the high end of what I thought he'd get in terms of AAV AND 1-2 extra years. Semien got 7 years of $25M!

I never thought we had a chance at Seager (or Correa, obvs), but $32M in AAV is on the higher end, and again 10 years is 1-2 years longer than I expected.

So I think what this all combines to is -- I was wrong. If the team won't ignore the tax (and I think we all believe that being near and usually under that cap is an organizational priority, whether or not we agree that's wise or just), then we can't compete in 2022. I mean, we'll see what the next CBA is and who is available in February. But this next year is very probably going to be rough.

By the way, one thing I've always thought, though I admit there's no evidence for it whatsoever, is that the Lerners expected a bigger cap hike 5 years ago and part of the pinching pennines during the last few years is that they only had 200M to play with and not 220M.

SM said...

Well, so much for "no-free-agent-signing-frenzy-until-a-new-CBA-is-reached."

DezoPenguim said...

@Anonymous:

On the batting end of things, I generally agree. I could see giving Semien the AAV, but not the years, and I never expected us to be able to give Seager the AAV (though it's reasonable), but again, not the years. And I'm not sure I would have wanted to give Marte that fourth year. Canha and Escobar's deals seem reasonable.

(And again, it's important to remember that the Nats offense in August and September...wasn't actually the problem. Yes, it's definitely a question mark if Thomas can repeat what he did (maybe), if Ruiz/Adams are genuinely good (probably), if Garcia can get better (maybe), if Escobar can repeat (probably not). The team could certainly use a couple of new bats, one in the OF and one at 3B (Hernandez or Adams can DH), but the lineup isn't awful, especially in light of the prices being paid.)

It's the pitching end where the market seems in line with expectations and the Nats have huge holes to fill. In the rotation, we have a mix of injury returnees, Corbin and his mysterious drop off a cliff, unproven prospects, and random flotsam and jetsam. In the bullpen, we have...a raging dumpster fire. Gausman and Ray's deals were absolutely reasonable, on a smaller scale there's Gray, DeSclafani, Matz, and Rodriguez. For pen options, Loup and Raley (these especially hurt given the Nats' terminal weakness from the left side), Graveman and Yimi Garcia all signed what looked like reasonable veteran deals. The team has big needs on the pitching front, has a history of prioritizing pitching (particularly the rotation) over batting in terms of FA signings, and the market hasn't shown the level of inflation (Max notwithstanding) as the position player market has...and yet, silence.

...It's an uncomfortable time to be a fan.

Ollie said...

Don't like seeing him go to the Mets, but weirdly think this will backfire on the Mets even though I agree with the general sentiment that Scherzer could be the one current pitcher who ages well in those seasons. Still sucks to see him pitch against the Nats consistently, although I dislike the Mets far less than the Phillies and Braves.

But yeah, I like Escobar's story but SS is more likely than not to be a sucking air wound in the lineup next season, and Kieboom's almost definitely not the answer at 3B. I get that it's hard to bet on this pitching rotation but it'd be nice to see *some* kind of movement in free agency, especially since they don't have many prospects to trade.

Steven Grossman said...

The Dan Snyder vibes are understandable, but I think there is something more rationale and calculated going on here. Althouigh the Yankees fans bemoan the team's poor record--yet they have four divisions championships in the last 10 years, lots of expensive stars, and yet can find money when they need one more star. In contrast, Cohen bought a dysfuhctional franchise from owners who were near bankruptcy and couldn't afford to compete with the Yankees and the Dodgers. Management has not been very good and burdened by owners who couldn't be trusted to make smart decisions. And being eaten alive in the NY market by the Yanks.

Last week signings, topped by signing Max, was a loud clear notice to the NY market that the new ownership Mets are determining to compete with the Yankeed and will spend the money and act decisively to get there. If Max turns out to be Tom Brady...he might actually be worth $43 million AAV for three years. But it doesn't completely matter--he is their Jason Werth. A substantial part of the value of the contract is in the message it sends.

Harper said...

ocw - the problem was less those three than JKC bringing in Wilkinson and Stubblefield the year before.

Dezo - it's not over yet but it seems pretty clear the Nats are in "see if it's worth trying to be good in 2023" mode rather than "we're going to be good in 2023 - hopefully with young players if not then by spending" mode. No big signings, a lot of young player watching in 2023.

Anon @ 10:43 - i agree that it looks more likely that to compete this year they'd have to at least scrape the cap. Not sure I buy any "only 200 M" theories though. I think they never wanted to go over cap and left themselves room for late season work if need be.

Ollie - I'm not betting against Max. I don't think hell be the 33 start 200 IP pitcher again, but can he got 25+ 170+ the next two? Sure.

billyhacker said...

I'm happy that Max's next big contract will let me see him play more than, say, the Dodgers would have. And that the timing of his decay matches the Nats timing for getting good. Next year Max will be great, and the Nats losing some games is expected. I do not see the possibility of Max being an ace in 2023 or even a #2 in 2024. Which is great for the Nats given how much he is being paid.

Also, Soto, from the first month has been this fan's fave, and Rendon before that.