Luckily we ease into this with the season recap which is fairly simple. Trea Turner was the Nats shortstop and as one of the better shortstops in baseball put up a very good, nearing great, season at the plate and his usual acceptable fielding season. He also stole another 32 bases which lead the NL. Unfortunately for the Nats fans, this made Trea a hot commodity on the trade market and with the Nats in rebuild mode and unsure if they could re-sign Trea after 2022 it made too much sense not to deal him. Out went Trea, in came Keibert Ruiz*
At SS FA pick-up Alcides Escobar** took over and he actually did quite well. No one expected him to replace Trea and he didn't, but he fields well and hit above average and if the Nats were making any sort of push would have been that "OMG why is this guy doing this good?" player every run has. (see : Cabrera, Asdrubal 2019). They did try Garcia out there a few times but that was just kicking tires. No one thinks he's a potential full time SS.
After the season they resigned Escobar but no one really knows what that means.
Presumed Plan : Huh. Hmmm. Uhhhh.
The Nats have two wildly divergent possible plans so choosing one is hard. But the point is to make a guess here so I'll do that. I have to presume something.
I think the Nats will go into the season starting Alcides Escobar at shortstop.
Reasons for Presumed Plan : The Nats don't have a starting SS in the system that's close to the majors. There was mild hope that Carter Kieboom or Luis Garcia might be that guy but fielding wise they are both better at other positions and the Nats basically need a full infield. Yasel Antuna then fit into the long term plan but he had a mixed bag season at High A. He probably still goes up to AA next year but in part to make space for the next guy up. All eyes are now on Brady House, the 2021 1st round draft pick who will move into A ball next year and is the Nats best offensive prospect (I'm not counting Ruiz here who I assume will be in the majors). Rizzo has never been shy about moving guys up quickly so he could move fast but he is still in the low minors. Neither of these guys are in the planning for 2022 and probably not full-season 2023, either.
That leaves a hole and Alcides Escobar fits it. He still fields well, which can help Garcia and Kieboom and as long as he isn't a terrible hitter the Nats can stick him in and worry about watching kids.
There are long term options available this year in FA but the Nats are in rebuild mode, have little history of big FA hitter signings, have a mediocre minor league system, and will be a hard sell right now to a player looking for a place to land for the 2nd half of his career.
My take : First Escboar will be terrible at the plate. He has been pretty much his whole career and 2021's half season was definitely an aberration. Now, there wasn't a huge BABIP swing (it was high but not crazy unsustainable) but here are his last 4 OPS+ values from ages 28-31 for 140g+ each year: 67, 72, 66, 63. Terrible, Less Terrible, Terrible, More Terrible. He did hit a little better in AAA in 2019 and 2021 but not good enough to translate into above average in the majors for a full year at 35. If the Nats get an 85+ OPS plus (think Jordy Mercer this year) they should be happy.
OK so why don't they go out and sign someone better? There are 5 top flight SSs (Correa, Seager, Story, Semien, Baez - ranked in my order.) available this winter. Surely one will be a bargain relatively speaking. Yes there are a lot of guys but a bunch of teams in contention needs SSs. The Phillies, Astros, Athletics, Reds, Yankees (who have already said they are going to get a SS), and Twins are all going to need one. They all won't sign one (the Athletics are cheap, the Twins need pitching desperately) but 2-3 will. Then there are teams that hope to be competitive if not next year soon after; the Angels, the Tigers, the Marlins. My guess is 4 of 5 guys get mostly what they want from one of these teams. One guy slips and signs a short term deal hoping to get the big deal next time out.
The short term guy wouldn't make sense for the Nats - even at a relative deal. They aren't looking to have an important FA position to re-sign after 2023. But could they be one of the four? Perhaps. I think they should be. But I think Correa and Seager get their big time market-setting deals. We all know the Nats aren't market-setters. And I think two of the other two will get market rate deals, the Nats might pay that - it's cheaper than it has been in the past - but I also think they aren't in that mindset. They've always been a sign pitching long-term type of team and it worked for them until Corbin. Also the Nats not getting the surer things and having to take a chance on good but not perfect Story (Coors), Baez (Ks), or Semien (old) gives me pause I'm sure the Nats have too. From the player's perspective the best chance is probably Baez, as Story and Semien are probably both looking for contenders. Baez, who won a series with the Cubs in 2016 might be more amenable to waiting.
To pull that altogether: I think the Nats need to sign a long-term SS. If they want to be good before Soto's FA comes back, they have to be because House is not likely to get up and make an impact in time. But I think they aren't looking to bust the bank this off-season because they don't know how all this is going to come together. If the pitching doesn't get right and enough young guys don't take a step forward you have to pull back on plans. That's kind of what happened this year. The pitching fell apart, the last chances for Ross and Fedde came up empty, Garcia and Kieboom did not break out or even look ok, Robles REgressed, no other young pitcher close to the majors surprised. It was a complete failure and the Nats responded as they had to - giving up on this season and the next. A repeat complete failure will make them do something similar. But they have to see and that means they have to wait. Waiting isn't necessarily bad. Trea could be back on the market after next season, same with Bogaerts, but it still means this market has to come to them, they aren't coming to the market.
So IF things work out - if two guys are left in the cold late in FA, or if it's Baez that finds himself on the outs, we could see the Nats sweep in and get someone. But I'm not going to pin my hopes on things working out with what other teams do in FA. They'll all see the same things the Nats will and if the Nats are looking to get a deal on Baez or whoever other teams will see the same and a SS can be a 2B or 3B pretty easily. The Giants could use a 2B as could the White Sox and the Blue Jays (who traded for Semien and stuck him there). The Brewers could use someone at 3rd. In the end I think other teams will either be more enticing or will provide better deals than the less than all-in Nats. And that means the Nats are waiting out another year, hoping that House had a great minor league season and if not that another 3 top-notch SSs are available again after 2022.
*That's pretty much how you can think of the deal. A year-plus of Turner for the ready now C of the future, a couple months of Max for the maybe 3rd, probably 4th starter and couple of throw-ins, one intriguing one not.
**Sort of - they actually traded money for him to get him from the Royals where he was hitting like Alcides would in AAA.
10 comments:
You depress me, but once again I can't actually argue with you.
I think the Nats *should* be in the market for a FA SS. Honestly, I think Semien might be the best choice--he's as good as any of them right now, and because of his age I can see him taking a four-year deal; Correa and Seager will want to go 7-8 and because of the market they will get them. With only Bogaerts and Turner up next year and House still just a hopeful twinkle of a distant future, next year is not the time to try to plug a SS hole, so they're better off doing it now. The only other option that makes any sense is signing Kris Bryant for 3B and letting Escobar stick at SS because you can put up with 85-ish wRC+ from a competent shortstop and there's at least a reasonable chance that Escobar can do it. (Heck, if Escobar just repeats 2021 over a full season he becomes a genuine asset to the overall roster, though I agree that's more like his best-case scenario than a reasonable expectation.)
Escobar is a perfectly viable Plan B. Going into the season with him as Plan A is Rizzo explicitly saying "2022 is not our year." I don't like to think about that outcome; as an Expos fan since 1979 I've spent too many years watching this franchise wander in the wilderness to watch seasons be lost before they even begin.
What Rizzo does at SS (or 3B) this winter will say a lot about the Nats plans for 2022. A long-term Jason Werth-type deal for the infield could signal an intention to become competitive sooner rather than later. Though pitching will remain the major obstacle to competitiveness, there is some hope. Watching the space intently.
The Nats gave bigger issues than SS. What about SP, RP, and a power-hitting 1B and/or LF to protect Bell and Soto not to mention a DH for 2022? If Zim wants to come back for 2022 you could use him as 1B and DH maybe 100 games. I like to idea of going all-in on Bryant as he can play LF and 3B in case Kieboom fails again at 3B. The Nats desperately need a #2-#3 starter (Jon Gray?) 2 LH RP (Sam Clay is not the answer) and 1 might be Sean Doolittle and 1 back end Righty RP (maybe Daniel Hudson?) along with perhaps a bench player with power who can fill in at !B/OF/DH/PH. Any thoughts?
DP - The Semien issue is he very well might make the Nats good in 2023, but what about 2025? If he and the Nats slip what does that look like to Soto? Ultimately that's the point - to keep Soto here. I guess though by 2025 you hope House is ready.
I'd have Escobar well under 85+ wRC. I don't like him as the starter at all but what's done is done. If he's the 8th worst guy out there and the others are good you live with it. Not sure that's going to be the case though.
ND - It's kind of an exciting off-season in that regard. Next year will probably stink but you might be looking toward a 2023 of trying again... or not! The lockout would possibly help? Anything that hurts FA negotiations could play into the Nats hands I think. Make them take something quicker than normal.
Anon @6:39 - I don't know. SS is a pretty big issue (but yes SP and RP are probably 1/2 or 2/1).
I don't like Bryant that much at the plate but positionally he does fit and a RHB would work well with Bell and Soto. It makes sense. Unfortunately it also makes sense for the Mariners and they have two selling points the Nats don't have (right now) - DH (though that may change) and West Coast (if that changes there are bigger problems for all of us than who's coming to the Nats).
My guess for SP is they sign someone blah for 2 years to eat up innings (think Merrill Kelly) while working with Corbin, Gray, Ross/Fedde/Rogers/Nolan/Adon in the other spots waiting until Cavalli is ready and seeing if Stras is healthy.
RP is where some money might be spent. It's a decent investment bc if a guy does anything you can always flip him in the new super relief heavy world of baseball.
Wait, what? Did someone suggest signing a hitter to protect Soto AND Josh Bell?
Wouldn't we rather have gifted offensive players at 3B and LF (more plentiful and for less $$) and an average-at-best shortstop (and CF?) then the other way around?
That would stablize the offense and leave most of the money for pitching.
Well yes, @Anonymous, of course the Nats would rather have gifted offensive players. Agreed.
But signing gifted offensive players to protect Juan Soto AND the not-especially-gifted Josh Bell (he's a starter, not an All-Star) is preposterous.
If Bell's offense is such a crucial element in the Nats' rebuild, the rebuild may take longer than it took glaciers to carve out the Great Lakes.
@10:28 Anon - That's probably true; the issue is that this offseason there are more gifted offensive players available at SS (Correa, Seager, Semien, Story, Baez) than at 3B/LF put together (Bryant, Canha, Schwarber if the mutual option falls through); not only do you have to pay for the quality of the player but you have to outbid everybody else who wants to fill the same slot. Especially 3B; once Bryant signs the quality of available players absolutely plummets (presuming Arenado doesn't opt-out).
Harper's probably right about SP; Strasburg, Corbin, Gray, and Ross are going to get four of the slots, and that leaves only one slot left standing with Fedde, Espino, Adon, and Rogers hanging around to be 5-8 until or unless Cavalli comes up. Truth be told, I'm not sure it even makes sense to sign an innings-eater type; the problem in the rotation is quality rather than depth. But there's more discussion to be had there when we get to the SP column.
Is Ross even coming back? Partial tear of UCL and no surgery has to mean a pretty long recovery period. That leaves Stras/Corbin/Gray/Fedde? Cavalli at the end of the year? The thing that has been a strength of the Nats for so long went off a cliff, and it's not going to be easy to fix.
That's why I don't see it making sense to go after a SS unless it's Semien. Shorter contract, hopefully bridges you to House, and maybe gives you enough production to keep the team in the semi-competitive camp, which would hopefully be enough to keep Soto around. Then, with the money saved, you go after pitching, both starting and bullpen
The fact that they re-signed Escobar for 1y/1M means he is the starting SS and they are not signing any of the big 5. They're going to hope he mentors Garcia at 2B and provides veteran locker room chemistry. They won't care if he bats .200 bc he's a (maybe?) plus defender and the rest of the IF defense is atrocious.
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