It was just over a decade ago when the Nats made the move that I think really set in motion the next 8 years of constant contention. A decade ago the Nats send AJ Cole, Derek Norris, Tommy Milone, and Brad Peacock to the Athletics for Gio Gonzalez.
We've gone over what the Nats needed to happen to actually make the window open. A stroke of timing and luck that had prospects develop, signings work out, and trades happen all coalescing on a brief 1-2 year period. But to me the Gio deal was the biggest. It was the one that signaled the team wasn't in it for tomorrow anymore but today. All four of the guys they dealt were good enough to be major leaguers and all eventually made it. In fact all three pitchers were in the majors last year. But they were willing to give that up for the security of a guy who looked to give you 200 IP of 2-3 type pitching for the next few years. The Nats were going for it.
Gio would work out really well for three seasons then follow that with three very useful, if in an infuriatingly 100 pitch for 5 inning fashion, seasons before being sent out for next to nothing in 2018. That covered nearly all of the Nats window giving the Nats something every year.
Anyway, just thinking that a decade ago the Nats made it clear they were going for it NOW and gave the fans quite a ride that luckily ended up with the ultimate prize. Regardless of what happens now you still have that to look back on.
12 comments:
You are so right about the message the trade sent. It was an exciting time, after terrible years of losing and picking players off the discard pile. It certainly felt like they were ready to win, to the point that continued playoff losses seemed just bad luck for a while. Just when they got us fans to the point of expecting another excruciating failure, though, they finally pulled it off, diving through the nearly closed window.
so theyre totally giving up on ‘22, right Harper?
It is entirely possible that 2022 will be a year to 1/ "give all the kids a chance" and 2/ see if Stras or Corbin can bounce back. Then they can spend money next Winter on known needs, rather than speculation (e.g. is Ruiz the catcher of the future; are we really down two front-line starters; do we have a 3rd baseman or do we need one, etc.) The team really doesn't know how many of their controllable prospects will be successful major leaguers. All of this wastes a Soto year, but arguably guves them a stronger case next Winter. They can show him their plan in action, rather than talk about what they want to do.
OR we really don't know what the team's plans are because part 2 of free agency lies ahead. There are enough impact players left that the team could be dramatically different by April 1 if they get the players they want.
Maybe the first vs second scenarios depends on whether and how the CBA affects long-term Nats planing.
Or the Nats have has an aggressive free-agent plan this year, but fails to win the bidding for who they want. There are lots of teams with critical needs and available money. Plus the compression of remaining free agency into 2-3 weeks rather than 2-3 months will stoke fears of missing out and force a lot of pre-emptive bidding. We would all like to have Kyle Schwarber back--but it may take 3 years/$75 million instead of the MLBTR projection of 3 years/$60 million. That he might not be worth that much more money is irrelevant to whether someone might pay that to get him.
Will - eeeehhhhh, I would say it LOOKS like it. The signings they have made are the type of margin signings you do after making your big signings to fix up areas where you maybe didn't get exactly what you wanted. That isn't to say that they can't be doing things backwards and will fill in the big needs later but that seems like a poor plan (so what Steven says after the first OR) Again a lot of it comes down to the "chatter" - there isn't a sense out there that the Nats are planning some sort of secret end run and while we don't HAVE to know what the Nats are doing, in the past... well forever... someone in the game has known and we've heard about the Nats talking to big FAs or having plans or something. Things we don't hear this time.
This is the offseason equivalent of the "Zimm isn't hurt - he's just playing on backfields because he hates Spring Training" thing that went on a few years ago. OF COURSE he was hurt and it was obvious and we all knew it but if you wanted to fool yourself you could say "well I'm not actually hearing he IS hurt so maybe they are telling the truth". All the signs we had pointed to the Nats doing nothing in the offseason, to start the offseason they did nothing. The only compelling reason to think the back end might be different is really your hopes and wishes.
Great trade! Gio struggled in the playoffs, but pitched a great 2012, and several more good seasons after that. Pretty durable guy
The Werth signing and the Gio trade were the two moves that to me signalled the Nats wanted to compete. Both were pretty good to great on the field for the most part. A quick check of Baseball Reference supports my fonder memories of Gio (best two Nats seasons 5.0 and 6.5 WAR; worst 1.3 and 0.8) but suggests that Werth wasn't quite as terrible and overrated as I remember (4.6 and 4.8; -0.7 and -1.5). Each signing definitely carried a lot of symbolic weight. The Gio trade meant their approach was going to be cleaning out the farm system, for better or worse. That the team was willing to bring in a big-ticket free agent foreshadowed the Scherzer signing, which was the single most important (positive) move they've made.
Which makes me wonder why, if it isn't already too late, now isn't the time to make a Werth-type long-term FA acquisition. Certainly in 2011, the Nats weren't even "decent", but they had turned the corner, and they were adding Harper to the roster. The current Nats team is at least as good as the 2011 Nats, with an MVP-caliber Soto, a couple of potential long-term infielders, a solid catcher, two turn-around reboot pitchers (Strasburg, Corbin) and some strong early stage starters (Gray, Cavalli). As in 2011, most of the rest of the line-up is journeymen. Bringing a long term FA on board now could provide a clubhouse spark, reviving fan interest in the teams commitment.
@Nattydread:
I'm guessing the major difference between the present team and 2011's is the money. On the one hand, the CBA is yet to be determined, so management doesn't know what parameters it's going to be working with. On the other, the Nats have long-term and very expensive contracts tied up with Strasburg and Corbin, and projections indicate that while Soto will be underpaid compared to what he'd cost on the open market, he'll still be getting arb money in the $16M+ range. IIRC, the only substantial contract we had in 2011 was Zim.
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