Soto has rejected a eminently fair contract offer from the Nats 15yr / 440 million. The Nats are now publicly considering a trade.
I say "eminently fair" because it's an offer that is a TON of money. In fact it's the most money in total ever offered in a baseball contract. But it's also a contract that weirdly avoids getting to that 30 million dollar a year number, falling just short. Does that matter? Depends on what you think you are worth and what you think you can get.
Still unlike the Nats first offer - which as insulting as a 350 million could be - this was acceptable and if Soto took it no one would have blinked an eye. Could he have gotten over 30 million? Yes. Could he pushed closer and maybe even gotten to 500 million? Maybe. But "biggest contract ever" is still, you know, the "biggest contract ever". So Soto isn't here because he doesn't want to be here for anything less than the most money he could ever make.
What do the Nats do now? Shop around I guess. What could Soto be worth? In my mind the "fair" deal would get the Nats back A Top 10 prospect, a top 50, and a top 100 at least. That's 3 major leaguers of various potential. Maybe two top 20s and a 100 - two guys likely to be pretty good in the majors. What will the Nats get? Something less.
There's also the possibility of putting Corbin or even Strasburg into the deal, lessening the return but cutting ties with some contracts that seem to be albatrosses.
And how does the Nats sale figure into all this? Did the buyers want Soto but specify limits? Do they have a buyer in place who wants this deal put on the table? Is this just the Lerners feeling that they can only offer him so much or else clear the entire table?
The next few weeks just got a lot more interesting but let's not assume the Nats are going to deal. The value they'll get over the off-season would probably be very close to the value they can get now.
Well at least they aren't still boring and bad.
10 comments:
I 100% agree that this wasn't a lowball offer.
I'd say it's on the team friendly side of fair, and I hope it wasn't their best and final. But it's a real enough number that, if Soto wanted to stay, he'd have countered. As devastating as it is, it's done. Soto wants out.
@Harper, which teams do you think might have a package that works?
Given the risk of team control of 2.5 years prior to free agency I suppose the contract is fair but there really is no reason to stay. The Rizzo regime has been a disaster in the draft. Since 2013 if you exclude Pivetta who was traded for -0.1 WAR Papelbon the classes so far have delivered - 1.0 WAR in total. Spencer Strider who is currently being rocked alone has produced 2.5 WAR this year. The team has so few assets it would be hard to imagine a quick turnaround and there is no evidence Rizzo should be trusted.
i think they knew Soto would reject that offer. If the reports are true it was back loaded and a player of his caliber should not be 20th in the league in AAV. Also, #99 hasn't signed yet and Soto is more valuable (generational) than him and it will effect negotiations. IMO, it has 2 main thresholds to meet: 1.) top 5 AAV 2.)largest contract (in terms of dollar value) ever in baseball. Reduce the years increase AAV and throw in a player option in year 7-10. The equity gained from the fan base and future free agents that would be attracted to this swamp can not always be measured but it can be felt. It's a free market, inflation (9%), salaries increase but his value will remain constant to possibly increasing over time. Put your big boy pants on Lerner's and get it done. If i had the cheddar, there is NO way I touch this team w/o Juan Soto locked up for the next 10 yrs or I'm heavily discounting my price!
Nats haven't been much of a pal to Soto. From a non-extension of Long that was not polite to dumping all of a 22 year olds friends and mentors, this has not been a cozy home for Soto.
The money is crappy. The NPV with 5% inflation is $300 m. You can set inflation to 3% if you are feeling generous. Whatever you want to do, this not a top 20 contract in real dollars. The AAV doesn't do anything for headlines.
It's hard to imagine Soto being able to accept this trade.
Like I said earlier, I think Nats will hope to get two top 40s and two top 100s and maybe they pay a big part of Stras salary, like 90%, just to dump the narrative ahead of a sale.
What @Anon 11:19 begins, @Anon 1:10 finishes with ferocious and brutal clarity.
Lots of dollars…yes. But coming close and not hitting $30m AAV is disrespectful. $10m more over 15 years would have done that; 14 years would have done that. It feels more like a PR move than an offer they expected would be accepted. I get it…the Nats are in the crappy position of negotiating against themselves, but there are smarter ways to do that. I think they have edged closer to having to trade him; not just entertain offers.
Soto has to be traded. Either now or in the off-season.
The clubhouse and fan base can't be subjected to endless daily discussion of AAV's, length and WAR/NPV of contract. That in addition to a 2023 which could be as bad or worse than 2022 AND a team sale situation.
Soto is a graceful, good-natured guy, but you can see cracks in thw veneer. Boras tends to use the media to fuel the bonfire and make things public. With the team transitioning between owners, he has an advantage in the publicity war. BORAS/SOTO vs RIZZO/MARTINEZ over press conference and radio? It will be carnage.
Let him go. Let's be a scrappy, below-the-radar underdog with a few good MLB-ready prospects. Dismal last place teams can't afford to argue with superstars who want to win about contracts.
I don't think Soto is going to get traded at the deadline. The vets moved at the deadline tend to be rentals or guys with just an extra season left (think Max and Trea), whereas the vets moved during the offseason tend to have longer contracts (think Eaton and Sale).
Also, we need to keep in mind that price is a function of supply and demand and not just one or the other. Boras's always-and-forever goal for free agents is to play multiple buyers off of one another and to generate a bidding war. Precisely the same is true of a team that wants to trade a superstar. Although teams are generally more desperate at the deadline than in the offseason, I think the price for Soto is just too high to get a deal done under deadline-imposed constraints. Like, if the Nats want MLB talent or extremely-close-to-MLB talent in exchange for Soto, then the deadline buyer would likely be giving up players that could contribute to the 2022 playoffs to get Soto. Two or two-plus years of Soto is going to command a huge return to make sense for the Nats - I don't see a team putting together a good enough package at the deadline. In the offseason, I think a) more teams will be in play such that the price will increase; and b) Soto will be an alternative for teams that don't want to pay Judge-level prices.
I think the important factor here is the Lerners' sale of the team. This is all being done toward the end of providing good information to potential buyers: the price tag for signing Soto is higher than 15/450; adjust your bids for the team accordingly. So my second prediction is that Soto doesn't get traded or signed until after the ownership group changes.
My biggest fear: Soto gets packaged with Corbin or Stras. This means worse prospects in return, i.e., some of Soto's value is exchanged for a reduction in the team's salary liabilities. The current iteration of the Nats should be exchanging present value for future value in terms of players; not using that exchange to save money.
Excellent players like Bogaerts and Ramirez sign team-friendly deals on teams that have had peaks and valleys. Soto could have taken this deal. Boras works for him, same as Strasburg. Counter with an opt out if new ownerships sucks. Get more money up front. Easy if you really want to be here. Easy for the team that wants cost certainty.
"Soto could have taken this deal." No, he couldn't even if he intends to give a small home-town discount. If the offer had been 12 of 13 years, with an AAV clearly over $30 million per year....He probably would have signed IMHO.
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