Nats are going to be getting some kids soon. Are they going to be any good? Maybe! A better chance than most if the Nats don't screw it up! But let's remember prospects aren't major leaguers. They often are NEVER major leaguers and the ones that make it are often average or worse. How best to remember this? Time for a trade return review.
It's the Trade Return Review. Coming right at you!
Aldo Ramirez (Schwarber) - 21 - SP - Jesse confirmed that the injury Aldo had was in fact Tommy John. See you in late 2023!
Riley
Adams (Hand) - 26 - C - Got sent down at the end of June to play some 1B (because they are trading Bell) and started to hit and then got hurt and has been sitting until presumably after the ASB.
Richard
Guasch (Gomes/Harrison) - 24 - SP - Struggled badly in AA so was recently dropped to High A and has looked much better. A necessary reset? Is that just his level? We'll find out as if he keeps pitching like this he'll be back up in AA soon.
Drew
Millas (Gomes/Harrison) - 24 - C - Back to A+ after not hitting in AA. And he's back to doing what he was doing before which was not all that much
Seth
Shuman (Gomes/Harrison) - 24 - SP - Had a rough patch right about when you'd expect him to get moved up but he's been pretty good after that as well. I'd expect to see him in AA this year. I don't expect him to do well there, but he deserves the shot.
Gerardo Carillo (Scherzer/Turner) - 23 - Came back after the 4th and has had one outing in High A and it went poorly but it was one outing and frankly I'd just be pleased he's back on the mound.
Donovan
Casey (Scherzer/Turner) - 26 - OF - K-See. Like I don't see the point unless he's a great fielder and I don't know about it. I can't see him not getting steamrolled at the plate in the major leagues.
Josiah
Gray / Keibert Ruiz (Scherzer/Turner) - the Gray Ace has slowly rounded into form giving you no reason to think he won't be a rotation mainstay for the next 5 years. As a good 2? As a bad 4? Still figuring that out but he's on the way up. Ruiz still can't get power, still doesn't walk, so is still at the BABIP. He doesn't have to do either a lot but if not he needs to do both at least a little.
Lane Thomas (Lester) - 26 - OF - Goes on runs where he looks good, then longer runs when he does not. Is he the worst 4th OF out there? I guess not, but is he an upgrade from Andrew Stevenson? I'm not sure. Play out the year and see.
Mason Thompson (Hudson) - 24 - RP - Came back to the majors and has been effective but oddly so. No Ks. No BBs. Just getting outs. But not like a ton of GBs. So probably just lucky.
Jordy Barley (Hudson) - 22 - SS - Not a professional baseball player
8 comments:
Can we trade Bell for some coaches who can actually develop pitching talent?
How about a post researching the last market-value extensions that worked for a team. Does it just get you traded later anyway like Arenado?
What do you think the Nats can get for Cruz at this point? A bag of peanuts? An analytics intern? Padres got a whole dollar for Cano, gotta think Nats can at least get $3.50
Jordy Barley could find a top-flight job as a brew master.
The column is a fair answer to: what are the probabiity of success for the players we get back for Bell, Cruz, Cischek, Y. Hernandez and whoever else. A year is too soon to know, but Gray and Ruiz (and 2 other maybe, maybe's) are an okay haul for Scherzer and Turner. The rest are variations of lottery tickets that may pay off, which is about what those players were worth. Just having a look at Lane Thomas is better than having Jon Lester for the remaining 2 months last year.
Soto has to be different. For a currently-contending team, trading with the Nats this summer gets you Soto for three post-season cycles. What's enough now? Will you do better or worse this winter? Is the pool of interested teams limited to those who can afford a 12 year $450 million contract (I tend to think not; or at least a team can decide to worry about that after three years of late-season runs). Does everyone see Soto's performance the same way we do--not actually a bad season at all and imagine how much better he would be with line-up protection?
Then there is the question of how this meshes with new incoming ownership. It wouldn't take much to make the offer on the table more palatable by dropping it to 12 or 13 years. Maybe all hope is not lost--this is somehow just another phase of a complicated negotiation?
I would love Soto to stay and I would love to see Bell, et al, bring back a haul. However, whatever happens, watching this in real time is fun....certainly a lot more fun that what is happening on the field. .
Regarding ocw5000s comment about getting some decent pitching coaches--Rizzo's history suggests he isn't good at identifying those coaches, so I have begun to think that it will soon be time for the Rizzo era to end and someone with a different approach to take over. This probably will happen with the new owner. We should appreciate that Rizzo brought a long competitive window and one championship, but we should not be so sentimental we keep him on when his approach has stopped working and has the team mired in the worst mediocrity in its history.
One way to look at your Trade Return Review is to ask whether any of the organizations trading for Nats players were hurt or diminished by what they gave up.
"we should not be so sentimental we keep him on when his approach has stopped working and has the team mired in the worst mediocrity in its history"
Rizzo's approach stopped working years and years ago. 2019 required everything to go right and, hey it did!, but what has Rizzo done in recent years? Last good draft pick before Soto (who was completely unexpected) was...? Anthony Rendon? Getting both Bryce and Stras was a matter of back-to-back 100-loss seasons with back-to-back generational talent. The Turner/Ross deal was magic, but has he gotten anything close to that since? Few players are willing to extend their contracts here, but lookie, we got an aging Stras who's been out 90% of his contract!
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