2022 should have been a very simple year for this position, but it ended up being a problem that of course resolved itself exactly where it should have started. Now 2023 will be that simple year... as long as no one gets hurt
Luis Garcia had been dominant in AAA in 2021 earning his second extended call-up to the majors. Much like the first, he was able to hang despite his young age and it seemed pretty clear that he'd have a full season in 2022 to work out the kinks. But the Nats decided that Garcia should be a SS. Well maybe they decided that. Maybe they wanted a pretext to put him back into the minors. Regardless the effect was the same. As he was not a good fielder, Garcia was sent down to learn the shortstop ropes in AAA and someone else would play 2nd.
That someone else was the FA signing Cesar Hernandez, and average MI at a reasonable age the Nats thought they could pick up and with some luck turn around for something small. But Cesar struggled and failed to produce a season of play anyone would want. Meanwhile in AAA Garcia was again tearing the cover off the ball. (He'd hit like .305 / .370 / .550 over 21 and 22). Despite not looking terribly good the Nats would move him up to play SS in June, that wouldn't work in the field to no one's surprise, but they'd keep on it until mid August when they'd mercifully shift Garcia to where he should have been to start. Garcia played the rest of the year at second. He'd end up hitting a bit better this year than in his previous turns, getting to league average with the bat.
Presumed Plan : Luis Garcia plays 2B. A FA signee backs him up along with others.
Reasons for Presumed Plan : Garcia played second last year and was decent. At 22/23 next year you'd still expect him to improve to some degree. If maybe not become a star, even a tick up makes him a solid major league player.
As for the back-up, the only young player you like and that is ready for the job is Abrams. He'll likely play SS. That leaves no one to back up. There will probably be calls for Jake Alu to be up and he might be, but he's more of a 3B than a MI. Ildermo Vargas had a nice run for the Nats this year, but he also isn't very good and they should pass on that. So a random FA Jose Peraza? Didi Gregorious? Marwin Gonzalez?
My take : They should definitely start Garcia and play him. So we're all in agreement there. Finally. His defense is no great shakes but it improves every year and he's probably an acceptable 2B right now and given his age likely will be for some time then. So worst case you have a completely average 2B in production and D for cheap for years. Best case he gets some measure better and you have a real steal.
As for back-up... let's hope he doesn't get injured. The likely replacement won't be someone expected to be good or even slightly below average in 2023. It'll be someone expected to be bad with a chance on not being bad. Either a FA like the ones mentioned that seem to no longer be worthy of a major league spot that surprise us OR a minor leaguer that wasn't a prospect and should be bad but who knows because they never played in the majors.
It'd likely get very bad, very fast if Garcia can't go, so let's all wish him health.
Hmm if you stopped here the Nats wouldn't look so bad. They have a young C and young 2B that seem to be league average with hopes of being better and a trio of 1B bats that they can find the best one from and the best one should be decent. It's the foundation, with a couple stars, of a nice squad.
Unfortunately these ARE the stars and the foundation under them is very shaky. There isn't much certainty left in the Nats positions for 2023 and that almost always means a lot of problems. But for now let's leave it with Ruiz, Meneses/Voit/Yadi, and Garcia. Three actual solutions.
6 comments:
I disagree about retaining Vargas. The Nats should absolutely keep him. It could be another Escobar situation but Vargas at least 1) hits with some pop 2) plays above-average defense. However, the main argument for bringing him back (besides as a backup 2B if Garcia goes down): look how much fun he and Garcia and Abrams were having at the end of the year in the field! They're doing Elvis Andrus/Adrian Beltre type antics. To get through another 100-loss season you need something to keep spirits up and he looks very much like a Gerardo Parra clubhouse guy. In fact, ZIPS projects Vargas to have 3.2 JAR (Joviality Above Replacement)
I agree. I think Vargas is fine for a backup on a bad team. Versatile infield defense. Kind of fun. Cheap. Doesn't block any prospects who could surprise like Alu. Why spend 5 million for the 0.7 WAR you gain with a better backup IF. Especially when you're hoping for 75 wins.
We should bring in FAs that we can flip for prospects if they do well. That's not going to happen with a replacement level vet playing backup.
I don't have a problem giving Vargas a league minimum contract and bringing him to Spring Training as a utility infielder. But I don't believe at all in his bat. He had a nice run with the Nationals but overall his bat is turrible. And he's not a good enough fielder to justify that bat. Put it this way: his career fWAR is 1.3. That's only in positive territory because he put up 1.6 fWAR in his 53 games with the Nats. He's 31; with his age and his history to assume those 53 games is a reliable indicator of future performance is closer to wishful thinking than anything else.
Even with all that, he's not even arbitration eligible yet so he's dirt cheap and can play multiple positions. In other words, best case scenario is that he's useful as a utility guy, and worst case scenario is that he can't beat out the competition for the 26th spot on the roster and the Nats jettison him. Given that he's dirt cheap, that's not a severe cost.
Vargas' career stats however limited say he is not good. Vargas' birthday says he is old. If the best reason for bringing him back is "He's so useless we won't care if we have to move him" that's an indictment on everyone making personnel decisions for the Nats.
I actually like Vargas (I liked him more than Joey so maybe I need him back to save face) but given your SS position is very tenuous I don't see how you bring him back as the PRIMARY back up. Carry two guys - a SS type and a 3B type - though isn't that unusual so if they get a real backup at SS then sure. Bring Idelmaro back.
But they won't get a real back-up at SS, and we all know it. This year wasn't a complete wash and they went with a guy that never hit that was out of baseball for several years.
I don't see any reason to replace Vargas simply because, well, we're talking about the utility infielder bench slot on a bad team that knows it's bad and has no intention of building a roster to not be bad. The 2B/SS positions this year are all about "Give Garcia and Abrams a full season at the MLB level to hopefully settle in and fulfill some of their potential." Heck, it's entirely possible that 3B goes into the same category with "Give Kieboom his last chance to prove he's not a bust that he would have gotten in 2022 had he not been hurt." Why pay a few million bucks to bring in a veteran to be slightly less bad than Vargas?
Unless they decide they want to go all-in to land a franchise cornerstone now (i.e. the new owner makes a splash and signs a Judge or the like), then like Anonymous said, the only kind of veteran signings the Nats should be bringing in are players that are anticipated to be good enough to then trade for resources (what you might call the Josh Harrison threshold, perhaps). The only reason not to bring Vargas back is if the talent evaluators believe he's going to be an Escobar-level of bad, and frankly, there's always some measure of replacement-level talent available on the waiver wire if an injury makes Vargas get stuck playing full-time and he craps out.
tl;dr better to sign veterans to fill the outfield holes, where the incumbents are one guy who might be a two-win player (Thomas), a former hot prospect who's been bad for three years straight (Robles), and a guy who combines a league-average bat with defense so abysmal he ended up sub-replacement by fWAR (Hernandez).
ocw5000, I agree utterly with your take on the need to have high spirits in a down year. Viewership would certainly get a boost. My wife won't even watch anymore (unless glancing at it while I watch) but would be very likely to regain interest if there were a Parra-type exuberance engine in the infield! She even has Parra-facsimile sunglasses. I got them from a company that does marketing paraphenalia and sends out samples. I would selfishly like to have her watching again, so yes, let's have a fun trio out there next year!
BTW, I confess to being a lurker, if that's the term, but only because you guys are all several heads above me in knowledge and insight. That's why I love this blog. It's usually the first thing I check in the morning, out of all the goodies on the internet. Thank you Harper and all the awedsome commenters.
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