Let's see if something can step up

The Nats honestly played the Marlins pretty well but came away with losses in each game. It was pretty much a microcosm of the season and the view of the Nats in general.  The Nats don't hit well and only pitch ok meaning both have to be working as best as they can be for the Nats to do well. Over the course of their run, from the Minnesota series through the Mets series they were doing that. A 13-10 run where if we throw out lowest/highest games on both offense and pitching* we get scoring averages of 4.4 R/G scored and 4.0 R/G allowed.  In the NL that would be slightly below average scoring and 3rd best pitching. With a little leeway you can see how a meh offense and a good but not great pitching staff would find itself fighting for .500. Contrast that with the 5-12 start. Same rules we get 3.25 R/G scored and 4.75 R/G allowed, or the worst offense in the league and a below average pitching staff. 

These are pretty close to the numbers seen in the Marlins series (3 1/3 vs 4 2/3) and that fits. A little bit better hitting (but still terrible) and a little bit better pitching (but still below average) and the Nats inch toward wins but can't quite get them.  Play the series again and they win 1 or 2, but they almost never win 3. The Nats need someone to step up and either get a run of hitting or pitching. 

Most likely it will be pitching. The Tigers don't hit. At all. They are the worst in the league. They have the Nats power and the Nats patience but also hit 30 points worse. And it's been worse recently. They have maybe two guys that can hit and are carrying on a depressing Miggy Goodbye Tour. The pitching is made up of a decent pen and a couple decent starters, but the Nats miss both of the decent starters. There's no reason they shouldn't run through this series pretty easily other than the fact they Nats themselves are easy targets at the plate and while they do put balls in play the one thing the Tigers do do well is turn balls in plays into outs. I see a couple of 3-2, 2-1 type games coming.

But the next series is a set-up.  Juan Soto and the Padres are after the Tigers, and you'd rather not go into that series feeling like you need a good one because if you don't get it one reason will be staring you in the face for 27 innings. Take 2 of 3 from the Tigers. Candelario is hot.  Revenge series. Let's go with that.

 

 *because it's such a short time frame outliers can get screwy. The Nats gave up 16 runs one game throwing the whole thing out of balance and not being really indicative of how they pitched. But if I take that out I gotta take out the lowest too and should do it for the offense as well.