Joey Gallo is going to be a National. 1 year, 5 million. He'll likely play both 1B and the OF as needed.
A quick primer on Joey Gallo. A decade or so ago Gallo was a top prospect, A top 10 guy who hit 42 homers and walked almost 90 times across 126 games of A+ and AA ball as a 20 year old. That's prodigious power for a prospect and great patience. He'd put up a .300/.400/.600 line in AA the following year and looked to be a superstar despite a .193 batting average in AAA and a very high K/9 rate at every level. He adapted to every other jump quickly, surely he would again. But he did not and he has spent his major league career balancing out that power and those Ks and lack of contact in general into something decidedly average production wise at the plate. But you could pair that oddly average bat with a pretty good glove. Guys with his hitting profile are usually oafs. Think Adam Dunn or Kyle Schwarber. But Gallo was a decent OF with a great arm. Great instincts for the game, decent speed (though not a base stealer by any means)
But that was then. What about now? What about 2024?
Everything is a bit worse. He's been hurt more and more often playing 120 and 110 games the past two years. His average, acceptable in the .205-.210 range has now settled into the below .180. His fielding instincts can no longer compensate for a aging and hurt body and he's better off staying at 1B. He is still producing enough power to make his bat worthwhile but in a way that you find guys 6-8 years older doing it; find a mistake and try to get around fast and crush it over the fence. His homer profile reads like that of Evan Longoria and Matt Carpenter. In 2022 his power dipped a little and he was flat bad. Last year it perked back up and he was back around average. Overall it reads both as "ok right now" and flashing red danger lights.
But you can see how this move makes sense for the Nats in a number of ways, or at least you could this afternoon... we'll get to that.
Gallo is a lefty bat. The Nats need a lefty bat. Gallo has power. The Nats need power. Gallo can play 1B or DH or corner OF. The Nats could use a guy at any and all of those positions to start the year. He's a player that fits. There's also value in the idea of mixing up the lineup for a pitcher. The Nats are full of high contact low power hitters. Gallo is something different to face and that change can matter in a line-up. He also represents no long term outlay of money. If the Nats want to move on from him this year it will be easy to do.
Ok but then... Rhys Hoskins is all this too except, you know, good. No he isn't 5 million for 1, he's 34 million for 2. But everything here he does better. No he doesn't have the same power but he'll hit for more contact and will put more balls over the fence through that. He fields 1B well. And the contract he is looking to sign means the Nats can move on from him fairly easily and with contracts coming off after 2024 they'd still be able to sign guys going into 2025. The difference between the two is simply money.
But that's back to another argument about what an increasing number of fans want them to do. It's still not what they HAVE to do. Not yet. That's not what 2024 is about really. Frustration may grow but remind yourself it's about 2025. Feel free to scream then but try to hold for one more year.
As a 2024 signing itself though I still don't like the Gallo signing. The chances of getting nothing are simply too high for me and the team can't afford to get nothing from their FA signings if they want to not be terrible.
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Not ambitious or statement-making, this Gallo signing. Werth's contract alerted MLB that the Nats were serious, let the fans know that the Lerners would put money down as well as providing "clubhouse leadership" for the youngsters.
You are right --- there were far better targets. Rizzo obviously has no budget from a frustrated ownership that can't unload, so he has to act the cheapskate. Candelerio was a good move. Hopefully I'll be wrong, but this is looking to end up like the Dominic Smith deal.
Even if 2025 is THE year, its time to install foundation free agent pieces.
Oh well, at least something was done. The guy knows how to take pitches and draw a walk.
Gallo is a placeholder with an unknown but unlikely pay-off. He is available at an affordable price that allows him to be released if he turns out to be inadequate even for a placeholder or be a bench bat if the kids arrive sooner than expected or flipped if he improves unexpectedly.
Rhys Hoskins is not a comparable because he is a short-term investment not a placeholder. I assume it would have taken at least 2/$40 million for him to prefer us over the Brewers. That is a lot of money for a player unproven post-injury. I would have been happy if we signed him. But it was never likely he would choose us because he would be leaving just at the time we hope to be starting to be good.
If you want a Jayson Werth type/Max Scherzer hire to signal ownership commitment, then you have to do two things: overpay the market and make the contract long enough that the player can reasonably hope to be a long-term leader on a team that is eventually going to be good. This year's Jayson/Max is Cody Bellinger. Would everyone's tune change....or would the conversation just shift to "we overpaid" and "which Cody is going to show up?"
Landing Cody is extremely unlikely, but speculating on the pro/con is more fun than endlessly blaming Gallo for not being more than a placeholder. Is Bellinger the sign you all are waiting/hoping for?
I have to agree with Steven on this one. Hoskins is perfect for the Brewers - a piece for an area of need on a team with playoff expectations. They can afford to take a short-term flier on an expensive plug-in.
If the Nats are going to play in the high end of the free agent pool, they need to offer either a premium in dollars or a premium in years, because they're clearly not going anywhere in 2024. Bellinger, Yoshinobu (when he was still on the market), Montgomery would be that type of player this year--young enough that they could offer 7-8 years and have a solid chance that they will be a foundational piece to build around. (See also, the Juan Soto extension that didn't happen.)
But with Hoskins, the only reason he'd take a 1-2-year contract with the Nats is if they paid him a premium in AAV--otherwise, he does what he did in real life and takes a deal with a contender right off the bat rather than waiting to be flipped to one at the deadline. And that higher AAV would, in turn, reduce the value Rizzo could get in trade for him. I'd be fine with him being signed if money was no object (I mean, it's not my money, and I always want teams to spend, particularly my own team), but it's not the kind of signing that a team like the Nats (especially with the budget issues Rizzo seems to be working under) can be expected to make.
Gallo's not an exciting signing, but he's also about what I'd expect from the Nats. He's competent in all facets of the game (assuming his 2023 defensive performance wasn't a sign of worse things to come), he comes at a reasonable cost, he's meaningfully better than Alex Call and pushes Garrett to DH (in case there are any lingering leg issues), and if he plays well he can be flipped for something right around the time when Wood and/or Crews are ready to be given an extended look at the ML level.
SG - I can't speak for everyone but I think the sign is a SP more than a bat. Yamamoto, Snell, Nola, Montgomery, maybe Eduardo Rodriguez or a shorter deal (3-4 years) for Gray or Stroman. Early indications is 2024-25 offseason will be weaker for pitchers. Maybe same if everyone gets to FA but that rarely happens.
So yeah it's not necessarily "not Hoskins" that's an issue just "not anyone" but again I can't speak for everyone.
Dezo - I never think about the trade for a high AAV guy. I want them here that's why I sign them. But Hoskins short term isn't ideal no. I would have liked him long term though
I think we're going to disagree on Gallo, a tightrope walker if there ever was one. He's going to go to zero FAST, this is like trying to squeeze out that last year from a 39 year old. I wish the Nats luck but I wouldn't have done it
2024 will be Gallo's age 30 season; he's not that old. And even if he falls off the tightrope he's only costing the Nats $5M for one season. This isn't a Nelson Cruz situation. That doesn't mean that it will or won't turn out well, just that it's not much of a gamble. Frankly it doesn't take much for Gallo to improve the Nats, since all he really has to do is to be better than Dom Smith (92 OPS+; 90 wRC+). Thanks to his power and patience Gallo did that last season (101 OPS+; 104 wRC+) even while batting .177. Not what you want from a 1b, obviously. But better than what the Nats got there last season. The positional flexibility also comes in handy as hedges against Garrett's health, Meneses's age, and the assortment of (bad) options at 3b unless/until House and/or Morales are ready.
And I agree with other commenters that it's not really logical to say that the Nats should have signed Hoskins for the deal that Hoskins got from the Brewers, since it's extremely doubtful that Hoskins would have signed that deal with the Nationals.
I'm not sure that the Nats need to make a Werth signing. Wasn't the reaction to that one: good player, but too much money and too many years?
Maybe that's OK since they're not in danger of hitting the luxury tax, but I'm not sure I want to see the Nats sign a 7 year contract. The Os did just fine last year, and I don't think they had anyone on 7+ year FA deal. To be clear, not saying that this year's Nats are going to be last year's Os. Just that - you don't HAVE to have big FA signings to become a good team.
This team is going nowhere no matter who they sign. Delighted they signed an experienced good communicator that has a 20% chance of being useful to a mid season trade partner. And you can get four of these for Hoskins. When going nowhere, sign famous lottery tickets. I'll go to atleast one game because of Gallo.
Also, let's say the plane is to buy a $25m/4 yr statement player. Now Nats can afford a $33m 3yr statement player next year and fill an actual need. I love this signing even if it has an 80% chance of bombing.
I’m interested in seeing how gallo plays 1b defense. Have read he is mediocre there - his defense upside appears to come from outfield with arm/speed. Last few years, noticeable drop off in speed. If he’s better than average at 1b or eve significantly better than Meneses baseline, I really like the fit.
Two questions:
How many oafs can be inserted into a decent starting lineup without hurting the team's chances of winning?
And who would you put on 1) a current all-oaf team; and 2) an all-time oaf team?
Although Hoskins is a returning injury risk his bat certainly has more median and upside possibility than Gallo. Which was reflected in his signing (as others have noted, a contract he's unlikely to have signed with the Nats even if offered).
I was a bit startled to see Hoskins described as a better *defensive* player than Gallo. Although his 2022 saw a distinct improvement in Hoskins defense that was up from...bad...defensive results 2019-21. As in close to worst in MLB level bad for those years. And of course Hoskins is coming off an injury.
Not assigning Gallo a 1B Gold Glove either. But at least defensively I'd say Gallo is as good or better than Hoskins (both at 1B and due to Gallo's ability to play elsewhere).
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