The Nats got swept by the Phillies and the team slipped 5 games under .500 and 2.5 games out of the last place playoff spot. One of the good things about the NL being a 4ish team league is that the Nats can challenge for that last spot, or at least pretend to, for a while. The bad news means when the Nats do slip they find themselves where they are now. Only 2.5 games out but with 5 teams between them and the current playoff holder Padres. If the stretch of death continues like we thought it might they'll be too far back to even pretend come July and we'll be back to watching the kids only.
Speaking of kids James Wood is indeed back hitting and looks ready (.353 / .457 / .564). We're all waiting on that. Anything else of note?
From guys we've talked about :
- Drew Millas is hitting ok and with Ruiz struggling mightily I suppose we could see him.
- Nothing to write home about yet but Dylan Crews steadily looks better.
- Jeremy De La Rosa had a good start to his A-ball season (he's only played a couple weeks). Christian Vaquero has not (but he's still 19 so whatever)
- Andry Lara pitched well enough to get promoted to AA (1 start there so far)
From guys we haven't :
- Old college draft bat Gavin Dugas (LSU IF) is showing he at least needs to be in A-ball.
- Bubba Hall, an older righty reliever is being dominant in A-ball and should move up to High A. Same notes for Jack Sinclair but insert AA and AAA.
- Marquis Grissom Jr, an immediate converted starter into righty reliever in High A, remains interesting if wild
- Uhhhh that's it.
If this doesn't seem like much to you... you aren't wrong. James Wood is an unqualified success. Crews is coming along, maybe a bit slower than his offensive draft mates but really only a bit. Langford did make the majors but didn't set the world on fire and got hurt. Of the other 9 drafted in the Top 15 only Jacob Wilson (A's SS) is having a season so far that gets you excited. So don't be down on Crews. He's doing what he needs to in the broad "don't make me have to be a superstar" sense. But the arms (Cavalli and Henry) remain hurt and the bats like House, Morales, Green, Lile, and Hassell are either just being in the minors or disappointing.
The Nats have done this before though. They've proved that getting one superstar ever couple years can sustain an organization. Wood looks like the first one. But unlike Strasburg into Bryce, into Rendon, into Turner, into Soto you do find yourself asking where's #2, #3, #4 and #5? Things change but right now the next set doesn't look like they are here.
9 comments:
Just out of curiosity, how much production does a prospect have to have before they are considered as being "just in the minors?" I'm looking at Hassell (126 wRC+) and House (128 wRC+) in AA when they are both young for the level (Hassell -1.7, House -2.7). Daylen Lile has a 126 wRC+ in A+ (-1.3). All are at least worth watching as potential valuable members of a future big league roster, and House at least has a solid chance to be more than that.
@John C - 100%. I'd also add Made who is basically matching Lile offensively this season (wRC+ of 125 and likewise 1.3 years younger than average).
Maybe I'd agree that only Wood can be fairly expected to be a star, using an arbitrary line of 3 or more WAR/600 true talent. But Crews and House aren't that far off, to the point that I'm pretty confident that the median expectation of the better of the two would be above that threshold.
Turner and Soto weren't even close to being in the system when that team first became competitive, so I don't know why you'd expect to be able to identify their equivalents now. And maybe RZ, Strasburg, Bryce, and Rendon did form a better initial core than Gore, Abrams, Wood, House, and Crews, but I don't think it's that wildly lopsided at all.
This team is going to be pretty good pretty soon, and there's been more good news than bad of late. Frustrating losing streaks notwithstanding.
It's all vague isn't it? For me, I'd say a guy forcing the issue or doing something special is what you want to see out of prospects, as opposed to "doing prospect things". So like House - he's looking ok (mostly power wise), but you don't feel he has to be in AAA now. He's got some things to settle in AA. At a consistent rate would likely see AAA next year when you can evaluate again. Which puts him on track to be like a 23yo rookie in 2026 who then has a couple years of seeing where he settles in majors. This is all good stuff but it doesn't RIGHT NOW ring superstar. So what I'm saying is not really a "this guy is a minor leaguer" but more "the minors isn't outpacing it's expectations outside of Wood". Which for the Nats - a top heavy minor league org, sort of need to outpace.
If anything maybe I'm a little too high on Crews based on my feeling but there's a little "what have you done for me lately" here and Crews' May overall shows a substantial step forward.
Having two aces makes a huge difference (we had Stas and signed Scherzer). I don't see an ace anywhere currently, on not too many available on the market.
Anon @ 11:24 - "pretty good pretty soon" I agree but I think a coalescing .500+ ish team with upside in 2026 and I think fans are thinking a solid playoff contender next year.
@Harper, a .500 team IS a solid playoff contender nowadays, though, with so many WC slots. Nobody's expecting the Nats to be WS favorites, but get in and who knows what happens (see Diamondbacks, Arizona)
CP - Sure but I'm not sure they are a .500 team next year. Given they are sort of being carried (to 5 under .500) by the SP and I have to assume Williams is gone then you are depending on Parker/Irvin to be real to have a shot. (also not trading every bullpen vet that's good)
I’m shooting 3-3 as the goal for this mini home stand, but certainly not happening with the way they’ve looked the past 6 days
There will be a lot of changes position wise in 2025. Other than Abrams, Garcia, Ruiz Adams/Millas, Vargas, Young, and possibly Lipscomb and Thomas, everybody else should be gone next year including Gallo, Winker, Rosario, Meneses and Nunez. Replacing them should be Wood, Crews and possibly Garrett and House. Starting pitching will probably be some combination of Gray, Parker, Irvin and Cavalli and Rutledge. The Nats should acquire a First Baseman and DH. Hopefully they will keep both Law and Floro to team with Harvey and Finnegan at the back end of the bullpen.
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