Some things that have happened since the ASG and while I've been off gallivanting up and down the east coast.
- Alex Call has been super hot. One homer and a .526 BABIP? Don't buy it.
- Luis Garcia Jr has heated up again. Let's consider 2nd base closed for 2025.
- Juan Yepez has cooled down. Just in case you were excited about that.
- CJ Abrams has cooles WAY down and is probably a little banged up given the rest he's had recently. Sit him as much as you need to.
- Davey seems content in trying to break Derek Law trying to get unecessary wins in the 2nd half.
- DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker have both had good 2nd halves though you'd be better off buying Herz a guy that misses bats.
- Irvin and Gore have not have good 2nd halves.
- There has been a decent amount of bad relief pitching - as expected when you trade away your good ones
How are the guys gone doing?
- You might have heard but Victor Robles is having a minor star run in Seattle. We'll see if it holds up but it both backs up why the Nats were so reluctant to deal him AND that they didn't know how to deal WITH him.
- "Late starter" Eddie Rosario got DFA'd byt he Braves after being even lousier for them.
- Nick Senzel, the guy I screamed "Why are you even trying with this guy" is currently riding the pine for the worst team baseball has seen in a long time, the White Sox.
Ok now the traded :
- Harvey is hurt.
- Floro had done fine but just got ROCKED by the Phillies so the numbers look bad in Arizona.
- The Lane Train has derailed in Cleveland. They aren't platooning him which is a bad idea if you want to get max value from him.
- Jesse Winker has done ok serving as depth for the Mets but is looking for some pop.
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22 comments:
I disagree that chasing wins with this team is unnecessary. Part of a rebuild involves building the confidence and muscle memory needed to actually win games.
I'm not talking about some kind of magic juju but the learned behavior of making the right, winning decisions in the moment. That's true of both coaches and players. We want them to learn how to make winning plays and see them play out positively in results. Same reason why it's good to add veterans that come from teams that knew how to win. Learned behaviors are repeated behaviors and as the talent level rises to a competitive level, can make the difference in the handful of games that often separates teams in the end.
This isn't a reason to break Derek Law (or anyone else), but it is a rational reason for managing (and playing) games to win.
Extremely analytical take on Victor Robles: In the few SEA highlights I've seen of him, it seems like he's playing with a lot of swagger, which is not The National Way under Mike Rizzo.
https://www.mlb.com/video/victor-robles-homers-3-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-field-rl09nd?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share
https://www.mlb.com/video/robles-makes-play-cheers-teammates-while-mic-d-up
It is a bit of chicken and the egg situation. Is he playing well because he has swagger or swaggering because he’s playing well?
I wish Robles well, but I don't put much stock into his hot streak in Seattle. How many times the past few years have we watched him play well for a few weeks and then turn back into, well, Victor Robles? I expect him to settle nicely into that category of former Nats who we only notice when he's on a heater (so we can bash the Nats for failing him or some such) and won't talk about at all when he's between mediocre and bad.
Robles could go on to be an All-Star and I wouldn’t bash the Nats. All success to him, but the past couple of years have been painful to watch with him, when he has even been healthy enough to play. More than happy to move on.
I had been wondering if Abrams was playing hurt the past couple of weeks as it seemed like he was at the very least getting pretty fatigued. Makes sense that there was something there. Baseball is a long season.
Happy to see Robles playing so well. Although I disagree with saying get the Nats didn’t know what to WITH him. What more can you do besides give a guy a bat and say “go produce”. Which is what they did.
If anything, it is entertaining to watch the tryouts of guys like Call and Yepez who are fighting for their careers. Even if they can't sustain fairy tale beginnings, we need to know who is going to fill the last 5 spots in a competitive team and August/September games (not spring training) will tell us.
The Mariners signed Victor Robles to a two-year, $9.75 million contract extension. The deal also contains a $9 million club option for 2027 and features $2 million in bonuses and escalators.
Any predictions as to whether Seattle will exercise the $9 million club option for 2027? I'm saying "no, not a chance."
Totally agree. He seems like a different person. He wore an on field microphone in ESPN Sunday Night baseball. He certainly has changed his attitude and demeanor
While wearing the mic he mentioned that "he lost something" the last couple of years but now it is back. Sad, actually, as Robles was one of my favorites during the 19 run due to the joy he brought to the game. Happy for him, sad for us.
It's unfortunate that the HR broke up the interview because he was about to talk about the differences between being in DC and Seattle. Might have been interesting.
Robles, Fedde, and Voth all immediately improving upon leaving DC is a real testament to how bad player development has been the last few years. Robles said a Seattle coach got him to use his hips differently. Fedde went to a pitching program and worked on shaping his pitches differently. Voth credited the Orioles with having much better analytics. Hopefully Doolittle and Parra are a sign that the Nats are moving into the future.
Before we pile on to Rizzo about Robles, let's remember that what he "lost" was his ability to stay off the DL. He played 36 games in 2023 and 14 in 2024.
Now, it seems a little silly that "great glove meh bat" is good enough for Jacob Young and not the 10 guys before him. Personally, I think C/SS/CF are spots where you can tolerate an OPS+ of 85 if the defense is great.
@ocw: Thanks for demonstrating my earlier point. Apparently whatever analytics the O's used to improve Voth's game wore off, because in Year 2 he turned right back into being, well, Austin Voth, and the O's let him go. As I expect for Robles, Voth is in the camp of "when he's going good we talk about him to bash the Nats, when he's mediocre/bad we don't notice him at all. Apparently the Nats' pitching development was good enough to revise Hunter Harvey's game, but that gets discounted because it doesn't fit the narrative.
I do think that the Nats' pitching development was behind on the analytics curve, but the recent results (Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz, Travis Sykora, Jarlin Susana etc.) have shown real promise. Now if they could get their position player development up to the same level ...
Beware sample bias. Voth was cut by the Os and is now a reliever in Seattle, where he's mostly gotten lucky. His FIP is 4, which isn't much for a reliever. Fedde had an ok half season in Chicago, but is getting shelled in St. Louis.
I agree that C, SS, or CF are spots where you can tolerate an OPS+ of 85, if you get enough defense in exchange. The key word: "or." You can afford a weak bat in the lineup of a good team, but not three weak bats, no matter how good the fielding.
Voth has a sub-1 WHIP this year, Hunter Harvey never pitched > 10IP in a season before coming to DC, Fedde had one bad start for the Cardinals. I agree that the woulda coulda shoulda game goes away when ex-Nats aren't thriving but c'mon now, Carter Kieboom doesn't have to win a Triple Crown with the Pirates someday to say there's something going on here.
Apparently the analytics fix that the O's gave Voth wore off. But on the bright side the Mariners fixed whatever the O's broke! Do you also keep track of when the Nats pick up pitchers from other organizations and turn them into useful players (see, e.g., Kyle Finnegan)?
His swag was phenomenal when he first came up. Definitely needed a change of scenery.
(Also I would bet a lot of this is the energy of being traded, and he'll settle into a similar 'decent but sometimes frustrating' pattern next season)
Voth is OK, low whip and lots of runs is a bad combo for a more or less 1 inning reliever. he's decent, gave the Nats great innings in 2019 and then broke down for the playoffs. Harvey was the reason the bullpen was fine, struck out everyone, limited homers, limited walks. all you need from a bullpen ace!
oh that was me lol
Joe Sheehan wrote about Robles recently. Everyone who likes to read about baseball should subscribe to his newsletter. He does great work (https://www.joesheehan.com/).
He thinks he was fixed last year, and the back injury hid it. I think that may be true, and it would suggest that the Nats coaching staff did its job, but the organization just decided to move on.
Here is what he said:
The Victor Robles story is fascinating. He’s a former top prospect who, at 22, was the starting center fielder and four-win player for a championship team, then lost his way in 2020 and never really made it back. Robles, now 27, was released last month by the Nationals, no longer even a post-hype sleeper. The Mariners, desperate for outfield help, signed Robles and watched him play great ball for a month: .355/.444/.581 in 38 PA with good defense and four stolen bases.
I’d argue that Robles, who certainly isn’t a true-talent .355 hitter, had actually changed his game a year ago. In 2023, Robles opened the year as the Nationals’ starting center fielder. He started 30 of the team’s first 31 games, hitting .292/.388/.360 with the best strikeout rate (13%) and K/BB (14/10) of his career. On May 6, Robles injured his back stealing second, and lost six weeks to the injury. He lasted five games -- with a hit in every one -- and then went back on the IL for good. Robles broke out last year, but the back injury ended his season before anyone noticed.
"In Robles’s absence, Jacob Young made a strong impression, setting up a job battle that was eventually won by...Eddie Rosario? Robles would strain his hamstring in both March and April. When he returned in May, he hit just .130 (.188 BABIP) in ten games and was released. I don’t think the 2024 performance with the Nationals, which amounted to ten starts in almost two months, had any signal at all. As bad as it was, Robles still carried the good K/BB forward, 9/5 in 33 PA.
The Mariners did a great job ignoring the 2024 line and focusing on the skills change. Robles played so well that the Mariners signed him to a two-year contract extension at a very low price -- less than $10 million. If Robles is just an extra outfielder for them, and he has all the skills for that job, it’s a good deal.
It hasn’t been all sunshine and lollipops, though. Robles’s 0-for-5 yesterday, from the leadoff spot, puts him at 6-for-43 in August, with a 445 OPS. The strike zone has been getting away from him again, as his K/BB has slipped to 13/2, and is 20/5 since the All-Star break. I’m a believer in the changes he’s made, and I think he’ll help the Mariners, but we can safely reset expectations that he will be a key offensive player."
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