The most exciting prospect in baseball* Wood shot up everyone's charts in the last few years and when you are starting around 15 there isn't that far to go. #1 prospects have greatness expected from them. Is James Wood living up to that?
My take would be yes. While occasionally there's a rookie that just comes in and steamrolls baseball, most need a little bit of a start first. Wood FEELS like he's having a slow start and yet I say that and he's got a line of .274 / .367 / .413 and is currently the best hitter on the Nats. If that's his starting point stardom is on the horizon. The only question is what kind of stardom.
At the plate the short description on Wood would be : He does strike out a lot (30%) but he walks alot too (12%) and when he makes contact it's so hard it's usually a hit. Assuming these numbers don't get worse, and you usually wouldn't think they would, he's a guy that will hit and walk and be an impressive producer.
If there is any caveat it's that he is not hitting homers. His 162 game average would be like 14. This isn't so much about bad luck (HR/FB is a little low for his history but like 1 homer low) but that he is hitting a bunch of balls on the ground. His 57% GB rate is the highest he's had at any level. He's also not pulling the ball as much which could be another factor. It's tempting to blame the hitting staff, the Nats are known to focus on all fields as opposed to power, but historically Wood IS a GB hitter. That is his natural swing. Outside of a half-season on AA he's basically hit 45% GBs or higher.
The Nats could try to change it but in my mind given his success I'd be real hesitant to try to that. To me, sure the upside is he becomes Aaron Judge but the downside is you throw him off his game and he gets worse. Whereas if you just let him develop and if he doesn't naturally hit more homers he becomes what... Edgar Martinez? You going to complain about that?
So right now all is lining up at the plate for a seriously fun season next year, with a line starting at .300 / .400 and the question being will it be 15 homers, 25, or 35?
What about off the plate? Hey, remember when I said Edgar Martinez a paragraph ago? The Nats didn't even bother trying him in CF, which some people said he could play, and stuck him over in LF. Even there with Jacob Young doing some serious Gold Glove work in CF Wood looks... bad. I'll just say it. He doesn't look natural out there. The last time we had an argument like this was about Soto. I said "no don't play him in the OF" you guys said he's fine and will get better. That didn't happen. It doesn't usually happen. You might get experience but you don't gain instinct. It's hard to get that first step. You get slower as you age. He is sure handed with a good arm so I'm not saying you have to shift him to DH tomorrow, but I think it will happen.
This defense thing is a bit confusing because how universally praised he was but it goes to show you the major leagues is a different animal. Slightly faster pitches, swings, and hits, mean your instincts have to be at a certain level. You may not be able to see the separation in the minors that comes at the majors. That's true with every skill. He looked like a fringy CF who should excel in the corners. Now he looks like a fringy corner. Maybe time will prove me wrong but Wood probably has a body working against him every year.
The speed on the basepaths has also been underwhelming. His SB rate is not good and his baserunning stats are middle of the road. He does seem fast but it's not translating yet. If there can be AAAA hitters, I suppose there can be AAAA fielders and baserunners too, no?
So James Wood does not look like the Willie Mays / Mickey Mantle one man army savior of the franchise in this extended first year trial. Instead he looks merely to be in line to start a HoF career at the plate. Maybe that means he won't be first ballot. I hope that's ok.
Am I pumping him up too much at the plate? Maybe. Am I letting too much air out otherwise? Maybe. But this is what we've seen. And if you are going with "he's going to get even better at the plate, while improving his defense, and baserunning" understand that's a Pollyanna take. It could happen. He could also start striking out 45% of the time and drop back to AAA. But I don't think either is likely. Hoping that you guys take "Future HoFer" as a good thing rather than focus on "Not Willie Mays"
13 comments:
Given his height and wingspan, is he a candidate to move to 1st base? Is there any data about how long it takes for players to pick up a new position, specifically converting CF's into LF's? Supposedly Franson said the angle off the ball and other aspects of LF are entirely different from CF and it would be understandable if time was needed for the adjustment. I appreciate the balanced evaluation, but wonder if this aspect really does just need more time.
Wow. Potential Future HOFer is high praise, Harper! To be clear, I'm not arguing with the take. Quite happy with that, actually!
Wood definitely doesn't pass the eye test in the field or on the basepaths, but I keep wondering if part of that is his size. He's a big dude who moves kind of awkwardly. He's still an above average baserunner based on the advanced stats, and I agree with SG that I think he needs to adjust a bit to playing in the corners and that he will at least be an average LF if not the fringe CF we all thought
This seems a good and fair take, Harper. His fielding has been disappointing but that's ok if he becomes a Yordan Alvarez DH/occasional LF with less homers
I'm old enough to remember when Ryan Zimmerman was a future HOFer. I'd be happy with Wood becoming a future Ryan Zimmerman.
I agree with the others--this is a fair take, Harper. Given his youth and athleticism, I think there are decent reasons to think the early experience with his defense are misleading. But this early experience can still be somewhat misleading, and it doesn't mean that he will end up a good defender. Your Soto comparison is valid, but Soto was never the same caliber of runner. I am a lot more bullish on Wood's baserunning improving.
All in all, I am generally pleased with how Wood has done. I expected worse plate discipline and more power. Given his age, size, and exit velos, I think the power will show up, probably sooner rather than later. The defense may be a problem. The baserunning will probably get better but may never be commensurate with the speed.
The Nats really shouldn't be giving Wood the green light to steal bases. He's not good at reading the pitcher, and he's so tall that he gets a slow start -- and as a result, he gets thrown out almost as often as he steals the base. That's a terrible ratio.
He was! Him and David Wright. Injuries are a hell of a thing
I think this is an entirely fair take, but the Soto comparison on defense mischaracterizes the issue slightly. Soto never was this bad, but he'is slow and has a weak arm, so the poor defense was always fully earned by his physical limitations. Slight improvement with experience was a possibility, but the main debate was "He's bad on defense, he should be a DH." vs "He's not so bad that he can't fake it in a corner.", and the right answer likely boiled down to what kind of replacements were available on the market for the various roster spots.
Wood's situation is different. He's actually fast, and he has at least an average arm. He should be able to play above average corner OF. But, instead of that, he's been absolutely terrible. The pollyanna hopes for improvement aren't impossible - maybe he just does need a bit more time to get used to the view from left, and defensive stats are really quite high variance, so maybe his true talent aren't quite this bad - but they are unlikely. And with Wood you can't say "Oh, this is good enough" and just keep him in the OF like this. (I mean, you can if your roster requires it; the bat plays period. But in terms of intentional roster construction, OF isn't where you want him.)
After we sign Soto, those two should rotate between LF and DH for a while so the team can figure out who belongs where.
I don't know about 1B. The Nats didn't seem interested in moving Soto but they've done it before.
Didn't think about the LF CF adjustment. Ok I'll give him a little more leeway here, but just a little
Soto's arm is meh more than weak but point taken. Wood has a higher floor.
Given his size and age, he may’ve only stopped growing a year or two ago. He seems to run pretty well it’s just his stride is long. I’d give him more time in the OF.
I know Soto’s not a plus defender for his career, but didn’t UZR/WAR like his defense in right for a season or two here? I know UZR can be a bit noisier but I remember him improving a lot (from horrible to competent, if a bit slow) in his first couple seasons.
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